BTC is actually down 2.88% today , moving in that direction rather than away from it. Worth updating the read on that alone.
Max pain theory holds that price gravitates toward the strike where the most option contracts expire worthless, benefiting sellers, as market makers hedge their books into expiry. It's a genuinely debated mechanic though, not a reliable predictive tool, and a $10,000 gap this large going in is unusual enough that I'd have treated the pull toward it as weak, until today's move.
What still argues against a full drag toward $75,000 specifically is the standing positioning. BTC call open interest sits at $9.61 billion against $6.52 billion in puts, a put to call ratio around 0.68, genuinely lopsided bullish, with the heaviest call concentration at $90,000 and $100,000, both well above current price. That's a book positioned for continuation, working against the max pain pull, not with it. Today's red candle doesn't erase that positioning, it just means price and options flow are pulling in opposite directions right now.
My honest read: this is genuinely two forces in tension, not a settled direction. Today's decline shows real downward pressure exists, but the option book itself is still betting heavily on upside above $90,000. Large expiries tend to produce real volatility as positions close or roll, the actual settlement direction isn't decided by either force alone.
What I'm watching: whether this pullback continues toward max pain into Friday, or whether it's a temporary dip inside a book still positioned for $90,000 and higher.
$BTC #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#
Max pain theory holds that price gravitates toward the strike where the most option contracts expire worthless, benefiting sellers, as market makers hedge their books into expiry. It's a genuinely debated mechanic though, not a reliable predictive tool, and a $10,000 gap this large going in is unusual enough that I'd have treated the pull toward it as weak, until today's move.
What still argues against a full drag toward $75,000 specifically is the standing positioning. BTC call open interest sits at $9.61 billion against $6.52 billion in puts, a put to call ratio around 0.68, genuinely lopsided bullish, with the heaviest call concentration at $90,000 and $100,000, both well above current price. That's a book positioned for continuation, working against the max pain pull, not with it. Today's red candle doesn't erase that positioning, it just means price and options flow are pulling in opposite directions right now.
My honest read: this is genuinely two forces in tension, not a settled direction. Today's decline shows real downward pressure exists, but the option book itself is still betting heavily on upside above $90,000. Large expiries tend to produce real volatility as positions close or roll, the actual settlement direction isn't decided by either force alone.
What I'm watching: whether this pullback continues toward max pain into Friday, or whether it's a temporary dip inside a book still positioned for $90,000 and higher.
$BTC #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#