First Fed hike in 3 years is supposed to land today.
~90%+ priced. BTC already took the hit.
A surprise hold doesn’t sink crypto.
It’s a dovish miss vs what’s priced → dollar wobble, messy spike, then a relief bid.
What actually wrecks it: hike + hawkish dots + Warsh sounding like more is coming.
The decision is the headline. The path is the trade.
~90%+ priced. BTC already took the hit.
A surprise hold doesn’t sink crypto.
It’s a dovish miss vs what’s priced → dollar wobble, messy spike, then a relief bid.
What actually wrecks it: hike + hawkish dots + Warsh sounding like more is coming.
The decision is the headline. The path is the trade.