Fed Rate Watch: All Eyes on the Dot Plot 🚨
Today’s FOMC meeting brings the rate decision and macroeconomic projections at 2:00 PM ET 🕑, followed by Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM 🎙️.
Markets are pricing in nearly 90% odds of a 25 bps rate hike 📈, bringing the target range up to 3.75%–4.00%—marking the first rate increase since 2023. The shift follows a hotter-than-expected core CPI report, which rose 0.3% month-over-month 🔥.
While the 25 bps increase is largely baked in, the updated Dot Plot will be the key catalyst 📊. It determines whether today's move is a single adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle 🔄.