CLARITY bill odds just got worse. Here's what actually happened:
1) Bill isn't dead but the path narrowed hard. Senate has a 3-week window in Sept during election chaos. Schumer and Thune both said it's a priority but that means nothing until votes happen. Lame duck passage only realistic if Dems get crushed in midterms (lose Senate + 5+ House seats).
2) The vote died between last Friday and Tuesday. Senate time agreements are weird - you can pass anything in 60 seconds with unanimous consent but you need EVERYONE. At least 10 Senators (mostly Dems) refused to grant time agreement due to internal pushback. That means they'd need a full cloture vote + kill all other business. When govt funding and AG nom took priority in final days, it was over. Thune was never keeping Senate in session with 5 competitive incumbent races (ME, AK, NE, MT, KS). Anyone who thought today wouldn't be fly-out day got played.
3) The WSJ op-eds and last-minute GOP doubts are a wake-up call. You don't get Republican Senators wavering or that op-ed if you've actually won the crypto policy argument within the party. DC policy still follows elite media and a ton of conservative opinion leaders remain skeptical of crypto. Industry has massive work to do convincing thought leaders about crypto's longevity and utility. August is critical if this bill wants any shot in the fall.
Short version on why we're here: everyone screwed up (industry + Dem skeptics) but the real killer was Trump refusing tougher ethics requirements. If you know Trump's track record, this was 100% predictable.
5% odds aren't zero but don't hold your breath.
1) Bill isn't dead but the path narrowed hard. Senate has a 3-week window in Sept during election chaos. Schumer and Thune both said it's a priority but that means nothing until votes happen. Lame duck passage only realistic if Dems get crushed in midterms (lose Senate + 5+ House seats).
2) The vote died between last Friday and Tuesday. Senate time agreements are weird - you can pass anything in 60 seconds with unanimous consent but you need EVERYONE. At least 10 Senators (mostly Dems) refused to grant time agreement due to internal pushback. That means they'd need a full cloture vote + kill all other business. When govt funding and AG nom took priority in final days, it was over. Thune was never keeping Senate in session with 5 competitive incumbent races (ME, AK, NE, MT, KS). Anyone who thought today wouldn't be fly-out day got played.
3) The WSJ op-eds and last-minute GOP doubts are a wake-up call. You don't get Republican Senators wavering or that op-ed if you've actually won the crypto policy argument within the party. DC policy still follows elite media and a ton of conservative opinion leaders remain skeptical of crypto. Industry has massive work to do convincing thought leaders about crypto's longevity and utility. August is critical if this bill wants any shot in the fall.
Short version on why we're here: everyone screwed up (industry + Dem skeptics) but the real killer was Trump refusing tougher ethics requirements. If you know Trump's track record, this was 100% predictable.
5% odds aren't zero but don't hold your breath.