#全球央行权衡油价逼近百美元 2026年7月23日, Brent crude oil intraday broke through $100 per barrel (spot price on the 24th was $100.69), marking the first time it surpassed $100 since late May, with a rise of about 40% in the past 20 days. The trigger was the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict + Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, putting both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait under pressure at the same time.
The moment oil prices broke $100 rewrote the script for global central banks — the focus shifted collectively from “when to cut rates” to “whether to raise rates again.”
Federal Reserve: At the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, keeping the 3.50%–3.75% range unchanged is still the baseline scenario, but CME shows the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 53% a week ago to 82%, and even the probability of an immediate 25bp hike next week has risen to around 35%. U.S. June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, core CPI 2.6%; with oil prices adding fuel to the fire, the rate-cut narrative is basically extinguished.
European Central Bank: On July 24 it stayed on hold (deposit rate 2.25%), but Lagarde admitted that “a rate hike was discussed internally,” keeping September as an option and warning that second-round energy effects will keep eurozone inflation above 2% until the first half of 2027. The market has already priced in two more rate hikes this year.
Bank of England: The 10-year gilt yield has held above 5% for the longest stretch in nearly 20 years; next week’s policy meeting will most likely do nothing, but easing expectations have been cut in half.
Bank of Japan: Inflation rebounded for the first time in three months, two-year government bond yields hit a 31-year high, and the policy circle has softened its tone on “accelerating rate hikes,” but the weaker yen is also tying its hands.
People’s Bank of China: “Taking domestic priorities as the main focus” + enhancing exchange-rate flexibility to hedge imported inflation; PPI is affected by the oil-price impulse but CPI transmission through domestic demand is weak. The probability of a direct rate hike this year is extremely low, and the window for reserve-ratio cuts or rate cuts depends on the pace of fiscal bond issuance in the third quarter, though high external rates are compressing room for easing.
The essence is a dilemma: raising rates to fight inflation risks triggering stagflation; not raising rates and allowing oil prices to pass through a second time is even more troublesome. Global bond markets first “fell” in salute — 10-year German bund yields broke 3.21% (the highest since 2011), French bonds broke 4%, and U.S. 10-year yields tested 4.68%; the market is voting for “higher for longer” through yields.
Over the next three weeks, watch three things: whether the U.S. and Iran leave room for negotiations, actual traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the July FOMC statement treats oil prices as “one-off” or “persistent” — if the latter is confirmed, the “inflation + high interest rates” combination in global asset pricing will be re-anchored.
The moment oil prices broke $100 rewrote the script for global central banks — the focus shifted collectively from “when to cut rates” to “whether to raise rates again.”
Federal Reserve: At the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, keeping the 3.50%–3.75% range unchanged is still the baseline scenario, but CME shows the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 53% a week ago to 82%, and even the probability of an immediate 25bp hike next week has risen to around 35%. U.S. June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, core CPI 2.6%; with oil prices adding fuel to the fire, the rate-cut narrative is basically extinguished.
European Central Bank: On July 24 it stayed on hold (deposit rate 2.25%), but Lagarde admitted that “a rate hike was discussed internally,” keeping September as an option and warning that second-round energy effects will keep eurozone inflation above 2% until the first half of 2027. The market has already priced in two more rate hikes this year.
Bank of England: The 10-year gilt yield has held above 5% for the longest stretch in nearly 20 years; next week’s policy meeting will most likely do nothing, but easing expectations have been cut in half.
Bank of Japan: Inflation rebounded for the first time in three months, two-year government bond yields hit a 31-year high, and the policy circle has softened its tone on “accelerating rate hikes,” but the weaker yen is also tying its hands.
People’s Bank of China: “Taking domestic priorities as the main focus” + enhancing exchange-rate flexibility to hedge imported inflation; PPI is affected by the oil-price impulse but CPI transmission through domestic demand is weak. The probability of a direct rate hike this year is extremely low, and the window for reserve-ratio cuts or rate cuts depends on the pace of fiscal bond issuance in the third quarter, though high external rates are compressing room for easing.
The essence is a dilemma: raising rates to fight inflation risks triggering stagflation; not raising rates and allowing oil prices to pass through a second time is even more troublesome. Global bond markets first “fell” in salute — 10-year German bund yields broke 3.21% (the highest since 2011), French bonds broke 4%, and U.S. 10-year yields tested 4.68%; the market is voting for “higher for longer” through yields.
Over the next three weeks, watch three things: whether the U.S. and Iran leave room for negotiations, actual traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the July FOMC statement treats oil prices as “one-off” or “persistent” — if the latter is confirmed, the “inflation + high interest rates” combination in global asset pricing will be re-anchored.