HiLo丨保罗高低量化

上周市场的主线是风险资产同步承压，但关键支撑仍在接受反复测试。美股明显回落，加密市场在反弹受阻后再度下探，黄金延续走弱；原油则维持上行，表现相对独立。周末BTC和ETH在支撑附近止跌，显示短线有承接，但反弹是否能发展成趋势修复，仍需要本周关键位置给出确认。
BTC此前短暂突破下降压力线后曾反弹至8.48附近，但未能延续，随后回落至8W区域。周末价格多次测试8W附近，短暂跌破后没有立即出现持续下行，说明这里仍有一定承接。ETH相对偏弱，周末最低来到2290附近，在2300—2350一带反复测试。上周的判断是观察关键支撑与反弹能否确认；目前支撑暂时守住，但还不能据此认定调整结束。
本周BTC先看8W支撑能否维持，以及能否重新站回8.1，再观察8.3—8.45压力区域。若能持续站上压力并带动主流币跟进，局部反弹才有进一步扩大的条件；如果8W失守，下一支撑关注7.55—7.7。短线低点信号增多可以作为观察依据，但仍需结合价格结构确认。
ETH的关键观察区仍在2300—2350。若能够守住并收复下降压力线，可继续观察反弹能否接近2500；若有效跌破支撑，日线上升结构将面临更大压力，后续不排除进一步回测。与BTC相比，ETH近期表现偏弱，因此反弹确认时也要留意其是否能跟上，而不是仅凭BTC单边回升判断市场全面转强。
市场广度方面，ZEC、NEAR、FIL等品种曾在局部反弹中表现突出，但赚钱效应和板块联动并不稳定。近期低点信号有所增加，市场也有短线回暖迹象；若BTC、ETH守住支撑且热点继续扩散，风险偏好可能改善。若强势仍集中在少数品种，其他主流资产跟进有限，则更适合将其视为局部修复。
TradFi 与大宗商品，美股方面，QQQ上周反弹未能重新站上730附近，之后回落至700一带。700是本周重要支撑观察位，需关注4H级别能否企稳；若有效跌破，连续调整的风险会增加。科技、半导体和存储板块此前回落幅度较大，部分品种已出现超跌迹象，但反弹仍需确认。美股波动也可能影响加密市场情绪，本周可继续观察两者是否出现更明显的同步。
商品方面，CL延续上行，周末最高来到105附近并刷新收盘高点，同时出现日线高点预警。趋势仍偏强，但短线处于高位，需观察日线高点是否形成以及回落时支撑能否维持。
XAU反弹乏力后继续走弱，价格来到4K附近。3940附近是前低支撑区域，本周重点观察能否守住；若跌破，需要防范进一步刷新低点。#股票财报季

Crypto Market
The main theme last week was pressure across risk assets, with key support levels being tested repeatedly. U.S. equities sold off sharply, crypto moved lower again after its rebound ran into resistance, and gold continued to weaken. Crude oil remained on an upward path and traded more independently. BTC and ETH stabilized near support over the weekend, suggesting near-term buying interest, but this week’s key levels still need to confirm whether the bounce can develop into a broader recovery.
BTC briefly broke above descending resistance and rebounded to around 84.8K, but the move failed to hold and price retreated toward 80K. The market tested the 80K area several times over the weekend. After a brief break below it, selling did not immediately extend, suggesting that some demand remains. ETH was relatively weaker, reaching a weekend low near 2,290 and repeatedly testing the 2,300–2,350 area. Last week’s focus was whether support would hold and a rebound could be confirmed. Support has held for now, but that alone does not establish that the correction is over.
For BTC this week, first watch whether 80K can hold, then whether price can reclaim 81K before testing resistance around 83K–84.5K. A sustained move above that resistance, accompanied by broader participation from major coins, would provide better conditions for a larger rebound. If 80K gives way, the next support area to watch is 75.5K–77K. The increase in short-term low signals is worth monitoring, but it still needs confirmation from price structure.
For ETH, the key near-term zone remains 2,300–2,350. If it holds and ETH reclaims descending resistance, watch whether the rebound can approach 2,500. A decisive break below support would put the daily uptrend under greater pressure and could lead to a deeper retest. ETH has recently underperformed BTC, so confirmation also requires ETH to participate rather than relying on a BTC-only recovery as evidence that the entire market has strengthened.
Market breadth remains mixed. ZEC, NEAR, and FIL showed notable strength during localized rebounds, but market-wide follow-through and sector rotation were inconsistent. Low signals have become more frequent, and short-term signs of recovery have appeared. If BTC and ETH hold support and strength spreads to more assets, risk appetite may improve. If gains remain concentrated in a handful of names while other major coins lag, the move is better treated as a localized recovery.
TradFi and Commodities
In U.S. equities, the QQQ rebound last week failed to reclaim the 730 area, and price then retreated toward 700. The 700 area is an important support level to watch this week, particularly for stabilization on the 4H chart. A decisive break below it would increase the risk of a prolonged correction. Technology, semiconductor, and memory stocks had already seen sizable declines, with some showing oversold conditions, but any rebound still needs confirmation. U.S. equity volatility may also affect crypto sentiment, so watch whether the two markets become more closely correlated.
In commodities, CL continued higher, reaching around 105 over the weekend and setting a new closing high, while a daily Top alert appeared. The broader trend remains strong, but price is elevated in the short term. Watch whether a daily top forms and whether support holds during any pullback.
XAU weakened again after a soft rebound and moved toward 4,000. The previous low near 3,940 is the key support area this week; a break would raise the risk of a new low.
Weekly Outlook
Overall, buying interest and short-term stabilization have appeared near key support, but a trend reversal is not yet confirmed. This week, watch whether BTC can hold 80K and reclaim 83K–84.5K, whether ETH can defend 2,300–2,350 and break above descending resistance, and whether the QQQ can stabilize above 700. If these support levels fail, the current rebound view should be downgraded. Until clearer confirmation appears, risk control and patience remain the priority.
#PaoloQuantWeekly $BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Gold