adonay_

$NVDA perp bounced 11.7% off its own 24 hour low on the day its founder was written out of the company.

As of 18:20 Kyiv time, Nov 12. The TradFi perp trades at 166.72 USD, down 5.3% in 24 hours, with a 24 hour range of 149.22 to 177.82 and 4.78B USD of volume. Open contracts are up 41% in a day and funding sits at 0.086% a day paid by longs. Price is 31.6% under the 243.57 high of Oct 6. Taken from the Binance perp, not from a quote screen.

Jensen Huang resigned as CEO, president and board member today, effective immediately, with CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO (CNBC, Nov 12). Earnings land Nov 17.

My read on Angle 1: this is a governance shock, not a demand shock, and the two leave different marks in the book. A demand shock shows up as open interest draining out. Here the book grew 41% while longs still pay to hold, so new money came in to argue, not to leave.

Crypto treated it as a risk event. $BTC is at 71,665, down 3.2% in 24 hours, yet retail accounts sit 72.6% long, the 77th percentile of their own 30 days, with funding at 0.027% a day. Nobody capitulated and nobody is paying for the crowd.

I don't know whether Kress holds the capex story on Nov 17, and no positioning number can tell me that.

Before the report, check funding and open interest on whatever you already hold, not the headline count.

Which do you read first on earnings day, the guide or the positioning?

#CanNVDAReigniteAIRally #EarningsSeason

$AGT retail flipped from 62.4% long yesterday to 24.7% today, the lowest reading in 30 days, while top traders are still 59.2% long.

As of 15:25 Kyiv time, Nov 12. The perp trades at 0.0670 USD, up 27% in 24 hours, range 0.0370 to 0.0830. Funding is still positive at 0.035% per four hour print, which is 0.21% a day paid by longs. Open contracts are up 13% in a day, so the book grew while retail cut. Its 30 day retail range is 24.7% to 70.5%, so today is the floor. No spot pair on Binance.

MSCI confirmed last night that Strategy leaves the MSCI USA Large Cap Index, the revised methodology takes effect at the close of Nov 30, and the shares fell 2.4% in extended trading. JPMorgan had put the passive selling near 2.8B USD. $BTC trades at 72,550 on the perp, down 1.8% in 24 hours, yet retail there barely moved, 74.7% long yesterday to 72.6% today, still the 77th percentile of its own 30 days, with open contracts flat at plus 0.1%. A dated forced seller is the easiest thing to prepare for, and positioning says almost nobody did.

I don't know how much of that 2.8B is already sold or hedged, and the flow data does not show it.

Worth doing: read the long short account ratio of anything you hold against its own 30 days, not against 50%.

Do you read positioning against its own range or against 50%?

Top 5 perps by 24h change, as of 15:25 Kyiv:
AGT +27%. Longs pay 0.21% a day. Contracts +13%. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.
ERA +18%. Shorts pay 0.79% a day. Contracts +18%. Bigger side: longs. Real move, no crowding.
MAGMA +17%. Longs pay 0.08% a day. Contracts +13%. Bigger side: longs. Real move, no crowding.
ONE +8%. Shorts pay 1.73% a day. Contracts +9%. Bigger side: longs. Two sides, does not resolve.
NIGHT +5%. Shorts pay 0.07% a day. Contracts +17%. Bigger side: longs. Real move, no crowding.

$ERA
#StrategyFaces$2.8BSelloffRiskFromMSCIRemoval #Market_Update

$INIT shorts are paying 25% a day and the last funding print landed exactly on the contract floor.

As of 18:05 Kyiv time, Nov 10. The perp is up 88% in 24 hours at 0.2454 USD, after a day from 0.1590 to 0.2880. Funding settles hourly here, and the 16:00 UTC print came in at minus 2.00%, the floor the contract allows. The live rate is minus 1.04% an hour, which is 25% a day out of shorts. Contracts open jumped 78% in 24 hours. Retail sits at 42.1% long, mid range for its own 30 days of 27.3% to 51.4%. Top traders are 50.8% long.

US October CPI came in at 0.4% month over month against 0.3% expected, published Nov 10, and traders moved to price a December Fed hike. $BTC went under 74,000 and printed 72,808 on the Binance perp, down 2.7% on the day. Funding on BTC is 0.018% a day, next to nothing, while 73.5% of retail accounts are long, the 83rd percentile of its 30 day range, against 58.6% a month ago. Cheap funding under a crowded long side is what a hot inflation print finds.

I don't know whether the squeeze on INIT has further to run. Funding at the floor tells you what shorts pay right now, not when they stop.

Before you read today's green numbers as a trend, check what funding you would pay to hold that position for a week.

Which number do you check first, funding or open interest?

Top 5 perps by 24h change, as of 18:05 Kyiv:
INIT +88%. Shorts pay 25.0% a day. Contracts +78%. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.
ONE +23%. Shorts pay 0.54% a day. Contracts +0%. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.
ARIA +22%. Longs pay 0.45% a day. Contracts +12%. Bigger side: longs. Crowded and paying side: longs.
SOPH +14%. Shorts pay 0.13% a day. Contracts +22%. Bigger side: longs. Real move, no crowding.
BR +13%. Funding flat. Contracts +5%. Bigger side: longs. Empty move, no fuel.

#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #Market_Update

$ANTHROPIC is down 35% in 30 days and 81% of retail accounts are still long.

As of 18:05 Kyiv time, Nov 10. The perp trades at 1315.50 USD, off 7.1% on the day, and today's low of 1254.48 is the lowest print of the last 30 days. Thirty days ago it closed at 2011.95 USD. Contracts open rose 28% in 24 hours, so money is arriving, not leaving.

Retail sits at 81.2% long, near the top of its own 30 day range of 70.3% to 83.8%. Top traders hold 69.7% of positions long. Funding is 0.015% a day, so almost nobody is paying to hold that crowd.

On Angle 1: the talk moved from a 2 trillion USD valuation down to about 1.5 trillion, and the open question is whether 1 trillion holds. What the Binance data adds is that the pre IPO perp already cut a third while positioning got more one sided, not less. When price falls and the crowd stays on one side, that side is what gets tested.

I don't know where it prices on debut. The data shows how crowded one side is, not what the order book looks like on day one.

Before you add to a pre IPO position, check the funding and the long share on the contract you actually hold.

Which do you trust more here, the price or the positioning?

#AnthropicIPO #Market_Update

Bitcoin just closed its fifth straight red week, and longs on futures keep piling up.

As of 09:32 Kyiv time, Nov 9. Spot BTCUSDT on Binance: five red weekly candles, from 86,530 to 74,851. Down 13.5%.

A month ago, on Oct 11, 59.7% of accounts were long. Today it's 73.7%. Top traders moved the same way: from 60.7% to 66.7% of positions.

Fear & Greed Index: 27, fear.

Fear in the headlines, confidence in the positions. And that confidence is still cheap: funding is 0.03% a day.

I don't know which side is right. The data shows where the crowd stands, not where price goes.

Before you read five red weeks as a signal, check which side your own position is on.

Top 5 perps by 24h change, as of 09:32 Kyiv:
JCT +135.3%. Longs pay 0.77% a day. Contracts +11%. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.
HOT +33.8%. Shorts pay 14.9% a day. Contracts +54%. Bigger side: longs. Crowded and paying side: shorts.
AIOT +23.0%. Longs pay 0.26% a day. Contracts +10%. Bigger side: longs. Real move, no crowding.
HANA +19.0%. Longs pay 0.1% a day. Contracts +31%. Bigger side: longs. Crowded and paying side: longs.
ON +17.0%. Longs pay 0.24% a day. Contracts +13%. Bigger side: longs. Real move, no crowding.

$BTC $JCT $AIOT
#BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #Market_Update

$JCT turned over 1061M USD in a day with no spot pair behind it.

JCT +236%. Longs pay 1.36% a day on a four-hour funding interval, the heaviest here. Open contracts went from 3.89B to 4.72B over the day, up 21%. Retail is 61.8% long, the 80th percentile of its own 30-day range of 31.7% to 66.3%, and above half on 22 of the last 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Within 1% of mid the book holds 56k USD of bids against 52k of asks, on 1061M USD traded.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Crowded and paying side: longs.

AIOT +26%. Longs pay 0.43% a day on a four-hour interval. Open contracts went from 50.5M to 64.0M over the day, up 27%. Retail is 59.9% long, sitting at the floor of its own 30-day range of 59.9% to 72.8%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Crowded and paying side: longs.

HOT +21%. Funding hit the contract floor at 12:00 UTC and the interval dropped to one hour; shorts now pay about 12% a day. Open contracts went from 9.19B to 12.53B over the day, up 36%. Retail is 49.8% long, the floor of its own 30-day range of 49.8% to 70.8%, and above half on 29 of the last 30 days. Spot exists and moved with the perp on 6M USD.
Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders.
Crowded and paying side: shorts.

SKYAI +19%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, the base rate. Open contracts went from 132M to 168M over the day, up 28%. Retail is 62.4% long, the floor of its own 30-day range of 62.4% to 75.1%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Real move, no crowding.

TA +13%. Longs pay 0.26% a day. Open contracts fell 10% over the day, from 124M to 111M, the only drop among the five. Retail is 52.4% long, the floor of its own 30-day range of 52.4% to 77.8%. The book is the thinnest here, 17k USD of bids against 26k of asks within 1% of mid.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Empty move, no fuel.

Seen a funding floor hit before? What happened next on your symbol?

$AIOT $HOT #Market_Update

$UAI nearly doubled in a day and the open contracts came with it.

UAI +105%. Longs pay 0.17% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 46.5M to 60.3M over the day, up 30%. Retail is 59.9% long, the 10th percentile of its own 30-day range of 57.2% to 68.3%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Within 1% of mid the book holds 21k USD of bids against 42k of asks, on 257M USD traded.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Real move, no crowding.

CYBER +56%. Shorts pay 0.27% a day on a four-hour interval. Open contracts went from 5.4M to 21.2M over the day, up 294%, the largest build of the five. Retail is 56.4% long, the 10th percentile of its own 30-day range of 52.6% to 68.4%. Spot exists and moved with the perp on 20M USD.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Two sides, does not resolve.

ONE +41%. Funding sits at the 0.005% baseline, 0.03% a day from longs. Open contracts went from 2.19B to 3.07B over the day, up 40%. Retail is 58.2% long, the 97th percentile of its own 30-day range of 45.3% to 58.6%, and top traders hold 76.2% long, the highest reading here. Spot exists and moved with the perp on 11M USD.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Crowded and paying side: longs.

ICNT +36%. Shorts pay 0.04% a day, close to flat. Open contracts went from 18.0M to 22.2M over the day, up 23%. Retail is 63.4% long, the 38th percentile of its own 30-day range of 54.9% to 81.0%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Real move, no crowding.

LYN +21%. Longs pay 0.53% a day, the heaviest of the five. Open contracts fell 6% over the day, from 540M to 506M. Retail is 74.8% long, the 10th percentile of its own 30-day range of 73.0% to 84.9%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, and the book is the thinnest here, 20k USD of bids against 17k of asks.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Crowded and paying side: longs.

Which of these moves has spot behind it, in your read?

$CYBER $ONE #Market_Update

$LYN retail is nearly four to one long and the open contracts are shrinking.

LYN +20.80%. Longs pay 0.06% a day on a four-hour funding interval, close to nothing. Open contracts fell 2.6% over the day, from 564M to 549M. Retail is 78.8% long and has been above half on all 30 days. Asks within 1% of mid are 38k USD against 19k of bids. No spot pair, futures only.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Empty move, no fuel.

CAP +18.31%. Longs pay 0.57% a day, the heaviest of the five. Open contracts went from 258M to 291M over the day, up 12.9%. Retail is 51.9% long, the 34th percentile of its own 30-day range of 46.4% to 62.8%. Top traders hold 65.7% long. No spot pair.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Crowded and paying side: longs.

ON +14.14%. Longs pay 0.05% a day. Open contracts went from 56M to 63M, up 12.4%. Retail is 58.9% long, the 24th percentile of its own 30-day range of 54.2% to 73.8%. Top traders hold 63.5% long.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Real move, no crowding.

UAI +12.73%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, the base rate. Open contracts fell 12.5% over the day, from 53M to 46M. Retail is 66.1% long, the 80th percentile of its own 30-day range. Takers sold more than they bought, ratio 0.91.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Empty move, no fuel.

BIRB +8.87%. Longs pay 0.03% a day. Open contracts fell 6.3% over the day, from 46M to 43M. Retail is 64.5% long, the 15th percentile of its own 30-day range of 61.3% to 82.5%. Taker ratio 0.92, and the book holds 78k USD of bids against 66k of asks.
Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders.
Empty move, no fuel.

Which book here looks thinnest to you?

$CAP $ON #Market_Update

$CLANKER open contracts nearly quadrupled in a day.

CLANKER +61%. Longs pay 0.36% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 130k to 487k over the day, up 275%. Retail is 63.6% long, which is the bottom of its own 30-day range of 63.6% to 83.5%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

CAP +26%. Longs pay 0.46% a day on a four-hour interval. Open contracts went from 228M to 262M over the day, up 15%. Retail is 54.4% long, mid-range for its own 30 days, and above half on 24 of them. Top traders hold 65.6% long by position. No spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

JCT +25%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, close to flat. Open contracts went from 3.56B to 3.64B over the day, up 2%. Retail is 56.4% long, the 53rd percentile of its own 30-day range, which runs 31.7% to 78.6%. Top traders hold 63.1% long by position. No spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

IDOL +17%. Longs pay 0.09% a day. Open contracts went from 898M to 943M over the day, up 5%. Retail is 55.6% long, the 22nd percentile of its own 30-day range of 48.0% to 82.1%. Within 1% of mid the book holds 32k USD of bids against 48k USD of asks. No spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders, both narrow. Real move, no crowding.

FLUID +14%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, close to flat. Open contracts went from 710k to 934k over the day, up 32%. Retail is 65.2% long, the 17th percentile of its own 30-day range of 62.1% to 80.0%, and above half on all 30 days. Top traders hold 48.3% long by position. No spot pair. Bigger side: longs on retail, shorts on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

Which of these five is on your screen today?

$JCT $IDOL #Market_Update

$AGT has the biggest move on the board and no spot market at all.

AGT +74%. Longs pay 0.32% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 365M to 434M in a day, up 19%. Retail is 56.1% long, the middle of its own 30-day range, and above half on 20 of the 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

IDOL +53%. Longs pay 0.08% a day. Open contracts fell 9% over the day, from 983M to 898M. Retail is 63.2% long, and that is the 17th percentile of its own 30-day range, which runs 48% to 82%. Within 1% of mid the book holds 32k USD of bids against 33k USD of asks. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

ICNT +35%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, close to flat. Open contracts went from 15.4M to 25.3M, up 64%. Retail is 62.8% long and has been above half on all 30 days, yet that reading is the 20th percentile of its own range. Within 1% of mid the book holds 51k USD of bids against 39k USD of asks. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

HOT +30%. Shorts pay 1.45% a day on an hourly funding interval. Open contracts went from 10.1B to 15.8B, up 57%. Retail is 60.3% long, the lowest reading of its own 30 days, and above half on all 30 of them. Spot exists and is up 27%. Bigger side: longs on retail, shorts on top traders. Crowded and paying side: shorts.

BMT +20%. Shorts pay 4.67% a day, the heaviest on this board, with the contract floor still far below at 2% per interval. Open contracts went from 132M to 189M, up 43%. Retail is 37.4% long, the 3rd percentile of its own 30-day range. Spot is up 21%. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Crowded and paying side: shorts.

Which of these five is on your screen today?

$HOT $IDOL #Market_Update

$ARIA retail sits at the floor of its own 30-day long range.

ARIA +35%. Longs pay 0.45% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 103.7M to 129.5M in 24h, up 25%. Retail is 57.7% long, the 3rd percentile of its own 30-day range, whose top was 85.9%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

HAEDAL +21%. Shorts pay 0.41% a day on a four-hour interval. Open contracts went from 131.3M to 153.2M, up 17%. Retail is 49.5% long at the 17th percentile of its own 30-day range, above half on 26 of 30 days. Spot exists and moved +20.4% on 5M USD. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

EVAA +20%. Longs pay 0.04% a day, close to flat. Open contracts are down 1% over the day. Retail is 55.2% long at the 46th percentile of its own 30-day range, above half on 27 of 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Within 1% of mid the book holds 55k USD in bids against 96k USD in asks. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

LYN +16%. Longs pay 0.38% a day on a four-hour interval. Open contracts went from 604M to 682M, up 13%. Retail is 80.1% long, at the 65th percentile of its own 30-day range and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. The book is the thinnest of the five, 19k USD in bids and 30k USD in asks within 1% of mid, against 137M USD traded. Taker flow stayed below one on all seven days. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

HOT +15%. Funding is at the contract floor, minus 2% per eight-hour interval, so shorts pay 6% a day. Open contracts went from 5.46B to 11.99B in 24h, up 120%. Retail is 61.6% long, the floor of its own 30-day range, whose top was 71.8%, and above half on all 30 days. Spot exists and moved +16.2% on 6M USD. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

Seen a funding floor hit before? What happened next on your symbol?

$LYN $HOT #Market_Update

$ESPORTS retail has not been under 74% long once in 30 days.

ESPORTS +83%. Longs pay 0.58% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 715M to 1.12B in 24h, up 57%. Retail is 74.2% long, the floor of its own 30-day range, whose top was 86.5%, and above half on all 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Within 1% of mid the book holds 124k USD in bids against 66k USD in asks. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

IDOL +19%. Longs pay 0.18% a day. Open contracts are down 2% over the day. Retail is 52.5% long at the 7th percentile of its own 30-day range, above half on 28 of 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. The book is the thinnest of the five against its turnover, 45k USD in bids and 55k USD in asks within 1% of mid. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

AIN +17%. Longs pay 0.25% a day. Open contracts are flat over the day. Retail is 31.8% long at the 10th percentile of its own 30-day range, though it was above half on 24 of them. No spot pair, futures only. Taker flow ran 1.07 buy to sell on the day. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

牛来 +13%. Funding sits at the 0.005% baseline, 0.03% a day from longs. Open contracts are up 13% over the day. Retail is 56.5% long at the 80th percentile of its own 30-day range, above half on 21 of 30 days. The spot pair exists and moved with the perp. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

LIT +12%. Funding sits at the 0.005% baseline, 0.03% a day from longs. Open contracts are flat over the day. Retail is 49.0% long at the 27th percentile of its own 30-day range, above half on 16 of 30 days. The spot pair exists, but it moved less than half as far as the perp. The book is the deepest of the five, 348k USD in bids against 313k USD in asks within 1% of mid. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

Which of these moves has spot behind it, in your read?

$AIN $IDOL #Market_Update

$LSK retail is the most long it has been in 30 days.

LSK +46%. Shorts pay 0.56% a day. Open contracts are up 42% over the day. Retail sits 62.3% long, the top of its own 30-day range, above half on 25 of the last 30 days. The spot pair exists and moved with the perp. Within 1% of mid the book holds 123k USD in asks against 90k USD in bids. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

AIN +37%. Longs pay 0.16% a day. Open contracts are down 14% over the day. Retail sits 32.4% long, the bottom of its own 30-day range, though it was above half on 25 of the last 30 days. No spot pair, futures only. Taker flow ran 1.10 buy to sell on the day. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

COW +24%. Shorts pay 3.22% a day. Open contracts nearly tripled over the day, up 171%. Retail sits 68.5% long, mid-range for its own 30 days, above half on all 30. The spot pair exists. Within 1% of mid the book holds 151k USD in bids against 103k USD in asks. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

RSR +19%. Shorts pay 0.17% a day. Open contracts are up 71% over the day. Retail sits 34.5% long, its lowest reading of the last 30 days, and it was above half on 19 of them. The spot pair exists. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Crowded and paying side: shorts.

AIOT +18%. Shorts pay 0.06% a day. Open contracts are up 29% over the day. Retail sits 70.4% long, mid-range for its own 30 days, above half on all 30. No spot pair, futures only. The book is the thinnest of the five, 36k USD in bids and 44k USD in asks within 1% of mid. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

Which of these moves has spot behind it, in your read?

$AIN $AIOT #Market_Update

$BIRB shorts are paying 1.1% a day and retail has not dropped under 50% long once in 30 days.

BIRB +45.79%. Shorts pay 1.10% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 48.8M to 59.2M in 24h, up 21%. Retail is 65.8% long and sat above 50% on all 30 of the last 30 days, yet that reading is the 7th percentile of its own 62.5 to 82.7 range. Asks within 1% of mid hold 76k USD against 33k USD on the bid. No spot pair here. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

IDOL +43.29%. Longs pay 0.36% a day. Open contracts fell from 1.08B to 927M in 24h, down 15%. Retail is 48.0% long, the floor of its own 30-day range, after 29 of the last 30 days above 50%. No spot pair here. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

BEAMX +35.98%. Funding is 0.03% a day, paid by longs, near flat. Open contracts rose from 4.29B to 4.88B in 24h, up 14%. Retail is 46.2% long against 66.5% for top traders. Spot trades too, up 36.85% on 24M USD. Taker flow ran 1.12 buy to sell yesterday. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Real move, no crowding.

PARTI +34.46%. Shorts pay 0.03% a day, near flat. Open contracts rose from 143M to 167M in 24h, up 17%. Retail is 41.9% long at the 27th percentile of its 30-day range, with 15 of the last 30 days above 50%. Spot trades at 41M USD and moved almost the same as the perp. Bigger side: shorts, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: shorts.

MAGMA +29.58%. Longs pay 0.21% a day. Open contracts went from 16.8M to 23.1M in 24h, up 38%. Retail is 58.5% long at the 53rd percentile of its own range, with 28 of the last 30 days above 50%. Asks hold 57k USD inside 1% of mid against 32k USD on the bid. No spot pair here. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

Which of these five is on your screen today?

$PARTI $IDOL #Market_Update

$IDOL open contracts doubled in a day and retail is the least long it has been in 30 days.

IDOL +70%. Longs pay 0.18% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 516M to 1.08B in 24h, up 110%. Retail is 59.9% long, the floor of its own 30-day range, whose top was 82.1%. Top traders hold 57.9% long, and there is no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

BEAT +29%. Longs pay 0.16% a day. Open contracts barely moved, 96M to 98M, up 2%. Retail is 78.4% long, the 80th percentile of a 30-day range that never went below 74.7%. Top traders hold 60.4% long, and there is no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

APR +24%. Longs pay 0.15% a day. Open contracts are flat over the day at 267M. Retail is 67.3% long, the 68th percentile of its own 30-day range, and top traders hold 63.6% long. Asks hold 72k USD inside 1% of mid against 50k on the bids, the thinnest bid side of the five, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

LSK +25%. Shorts pay 2.77% a day, the only negative funding of the five. Open contracts went from 29M to 41M in 24h, up 44%. Retail is 53.8% long, the 86th percentile of a range that bottomed at 48.8%, and top traders hold 56.9% long. Spot trades here and moved 24.4% on 7M USD. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders, both narrow. Two sides, does not resolve.

HYPE +20%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, close to flat. Open contracts went from 4.13M to 4.97M in 24h, up 20%. Retail is 67.6% long, the top of its own 30-day range, and top traders hold 73.4% long, the highest reading here. Spot trades here and moved 19.6% on 103M USD. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

Which of these moves has spot behind it, in your read?

$HYPE $APR #Market_Update

$EVAA retail longs just hit a 30-day low.

EVAA +111.2%. Longs pay 0.29% a day. Open contracts are up 59% over the day. Retail sits 54.9% long, the bottom of its own 30-day range after 78.9% yesterday. No spot pair, futures only. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

XAN +39.0%. Shorts pay 0.71% a day. Open contracts are up 162% over the day, the largest build of the five. Retail sits 69.9% long, near the floor of its own 30-day range, and all 30 of those days were above 50%. Bids hold 88k USD inside 1% of mid against 51k on the asks. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

BLESS +35.9%. Longs pay 0.17% a day. Open contracts are up 68% over the day. Retail sits 70.2% long, the 90th percentile of its own 30-day range. No spot pair, futures only. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

DOS +30.8%. Longs pay 0.22% a day. Open contracts are up 32% over the day. Retail sits 68.3% long while top traders sit 47.0% long. Bids hold 26k USD inside 1% of mid against 62k on the asks, the thinnest bid side of the five. Bigger side: longs on retail, shorts on top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

INIT +23.5%. Shorts pay 0.41% a day. Open contracts are flat over the day, down 1%. Retail sits 51.4% long, still the top of its own 30-day range, whose floor was 37.8%. The spot pair trades and is up 25.4% on 18M USD. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

Which book here looks thinnest to you?

$BLESS $INIT #Market_Update

Google reports Q3 tomorrow after the US close, and the loudest argument against it points at the wrong revenue line.

SparkToro, on Similarweb clickstream data for January to April 2026: 68.01% of US Google searches ended with no click at all, against 60.45% in 2024. That is the number everyone quotes.

A field experiment by Agarwal and Sen, Indian School of Business and Carnegie Mellon, 1,065 US participants, January to February 2026, splits that number. Where AI Overviews appeared, outbound organic clicks fell 38%, the zero-click rate went from 54% to 72%, and outbound clicks per search dropped from 0.61 to 0.38. Sponsored clicks stayed flat.

That is the mechanism. Google never billed anyone for the organic link. Advertisers pay per ad click, and the ad click is the one the AI answer did not take. AI answers are eating publisher traffic, not the billed slot.

So the pressure shows up as slower growth, not a hole. Search and other revenue was 63.3 bn USD in Q2 2026, up 17% year over year, after 19% the quarter before. Q3 consensus for Alphabet as a whole is near 127.9 bn USD. The heavier number is the cost side: capex ran 80.6 bn USD in the first half of 2026, 44.9 bn of it in Q2 alone.

On Binance futures the GOOGL perpetual trades at 322.04 USD, up 0.49% in 24 hours, on 125M USD of turnover. The MSFT perpetual is at 535.43 USD, up 0.81%, on 33M USD. Taken 27 October, 16:07 UTC.

The line I read first in this report is paid clicks against cost per click. If paid clicks hold while the open web shrinks, the search ad business is intact and the whole argument moves to capex.

Which line are you opening the report on: paid clicks, Cloud revenue, or capex?

$GOOGL $MSFT #CanGoogleDefindItsCore #EarningsSeason

$BULLA led the whole board today and retail is near the bottom of its own long range.

BULLA +69%. Longs pay 0.13% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 115M to 144M in 24h, up 25%. Retail is 58.3% long, the 23rd percentile of its own 30-day range, after 29 of the last 30 days above 50%. Top traders hold 52.5% long. Bids 66k USD against asks 82k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

DOOD +43%. Shorts pay 2.62% a day. Open contracts went from 2.82B to 4.02B in 24h, up 42%. Retail is 64.4% long, the 10th percentile of its own 30-day range, after 29 of the last 30 days above 50%. Top traders hold 53.2% long. Bids 72k USD against asks 78k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Real move, no crowding.

AIN +26%. Longs pay 0.22% a day. Open contracts went from 265M to 287M in 24h, up 8%. Retail is 74.8% long, the 80th percentile of its own 30-day range. Top traders hold 67.5% long. Bids 16k USD against asks 11k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

BEAT +21%. Longs pay 0.06% a day, close to flat. Open contracts went from 78M to 94M in 24h, up 20%. Retail is 76.8% long, the 47th percentile of a 30-day range that never went below 74.7%. Top traders hold 67.2% long. Bids 45k USD against asks 36k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

LIGHT +18%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, close to flat. Open contracts were flat in 24h, 26.9M to 26.7M. Retail is 71.8% long, the floor of its own 30-day range, after 30 of 30 days above 50%. Top traders hold 60.7% long. Bids 21k USD against asks 27k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

Which of these five is on your screen today?

$DOOD $AIN #Market_Update

$APR retail has not been majority short once in 30 days.

APR +68%. Longs pay 0.20% a day on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts went from 223M to 321M in 24h, up 44%. Retail is 70.9% long, the 94th percentile of its own 30-day range, after 30 of 30 days above 50%. Top traders hold 59.8% long. Bids 65k USD against asks 76k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

JCT +49%. Longs pay 0.34% a day. Open contracts went from 3.85B to 4.64B in 24h, up 21%. Retail is 38.1% long, near the floor of its own 30-day range, after 26 of the last 30 days above 50%. Top traders hold 57.9% long. Bids 129k USD against asks 67k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

CAP +30%. Longs pay 0.31% a day. Open contracts went from 183M to 215M in 24h, up 17%. Retail is 62.1% long, the 82nd percentile of its 30-day range, and top traders hold 66.4% long. Bids 48k USD against asks 131k within 1% of mid, the thinnest bid side here, and no spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

MAGMA +20%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, close to flat. Open contracts fell 17% in 24h, from 24.9M to 20.7M. Retail is 57.5% long and top traders 53.6%, both in the upper half of their own 30-day ranges. The book is even, 22k USD of bids against 21k of asks within 1% of mid. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

T +18%. Shorts pay 13.73% a day on an hourly funding interval. Open contracts went from 306M to 1.12B in 24h, up 268%. Retail is 65.1% long, after 30 of 30 days above 50%. Top traders sit 48.0% long. Taker flow is the weakest of the last seven days, and spot exists here, up 22.8% on 17M USD. Bigger side: longs on retail, shorts on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

Which of these five is on your screen today?

$JCT $MAGMA #Market_Update

$AKE led the whole board yesterday while its open contracts shrank.

AKE +54%. Longs pay 0.13% a day, on a four-hour funding interval. Open contracts fell 5% in 24h, from 553M to 523M. Retail is 48.5% long, the bottom of its own 30-day range, after 29 of the last 30 days above 50%. Top traders hold 44.2% long. Bids 142k USD against asks 132k within 1% of mid, and no spot pair. Bigger side: shorts, retail and top traders. Empty move, no fuel.

MAGMA +45%. Longs pay 0.12% a day. Open contracts went from 19.8M to 36.1M in 24h, up 83%. Retail is 32.3% long, the floor of its 30-day range. Top traders sit 53.4% long, the other way. Bigger side: shorts on retail, longs on top traders. Two sides, does not resolve.

BTR +36%. Longs pay 0.03% a day, close to flat. Open contracts rose 53% in 24h, from 109M to 167M. Retail is 50.0% long, its 30-day low. Top traders hold 62.1% long, and bids are 71k USD against 43k on the ask within 1% of mid. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders. Crowded and paying side: longs.

IRYS +33%. Longs pay 0.06% a day. Open contracts added 3% in 24h, 543M to 558M. Retail is 54.8% long and top traders 55.1%, both sitting at the bottom of their own 30-day ranges. No spot pair. Bigger side: longs, retail and top traders, both narrow. Real move, no crowding.

BMT +31%. Shorts pay 0.29% a day. Open contracts rose 20% in 24h, 199M to 239M. Retail is 53.3% long, its 30-day floor, while top traders are 47.0% long. Spot exists here and moved 28.6% on 17M USD of turnover. Bigger side: longs on retail, shorts on top traders, both narrow. Two sides, does not resolve.

Which book here looks thinnest to you?

$MAGMA $IRYS #Market_Update