Mr_Shivam Lodhi

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Today we are closing the third week in a row below the EMA50, the golden line that has held since the bull run started in 2023. Losing it confirms the beginning of the bear market we are currently in. On top of that, as discussed, the death cross has been confirmed and occurred two weeks ago. Despite weeks of selling pressure, the market still looks healthy in terms of positioning: longs and shorts remain fully balanced, which explains the sideways movement we are seeing now. So let’s start with the first question: why is this sideways movement important?
To build significant downside liquidity, market makers must keep price moving sideways for a while or even fake pump the market to allow more bullish sentiment in the market to trap bulls once again. This allows the market to stabilize, trap traders, and accumulate liquidity beneath the current levels. Only once enough liquidity is built will market makers send the trigger for the next leg down. Do we currently have enough downside liquidity? In my opinion, no. Not yet. I don’t see enough liquidity below us to justify initiating the next major drop at this moment. That’s why I expect a sideways range between the current price and the EMA50 level (~$100,000) in the coming days and weeks. The two largest liquidity clusters in the short term are at 97k region and 107k. Its interesting because the EMA50 is located at 100k as well, means there is a high probability to re-test EMA50 as we have seen no retest since the breakdown yet. A major move down is planned, but the script must be followed, and right now, the required liquidity is not yet there. So for now, expect a boring sideways phase, with confirmed targets of $70,000–$75,000 by the beginning of 2026.
Again: moves like these take time, and that’s what most people fail to understand. It’s not “down only” and then back up. It can be a strong drop, followed by long sideways consolidation, then a fake relief rally, and then continuation lower lows. Keep this in mind. I am keeping my full short position from the 115–125k region open, and I am holding 100% cash, with zero interest in “buying the dip” at these prices. However I would be interested to place several short orders in the region between 105k and 107k in case market allows to visit.
Most liquidations currently sit around the $97,000 region, which I believe is not off the table in the coming days and weeks, and that’s a good thing. Market makers understand that BTC will be much lower six months from now, so they need to apply pressure on late shorts, liquidate them, and clear the path for a much deeper move down. I hope that makes sense. Now that my first target of $90k has been hit, I expect a sideways phase to follow. I do not believe a strong immediate continuation downward will occur in the next days. Instead, the market will likely hunt liquidity, build liquidity below, and prepare for the next leg down and this takes some time, most likely in the beginning of 2026. As for the calendar: Nothing important for now. It’s a boring phase, with the first notable event being FOMC on December 10th.
$BTC