Global crypto: deep correction, but alt flows and infrastructure remain resilient
📌 During 23–30 November, the crypto market cap swung between about $2.99T and $3.23T, ending the week near $3.1T. Bitcoin fell from above $106,000 to below $90,000 before gradually stabilizing around $91,500, while Ethereum and Solana also posted double-digit weekly losses.
💡 This downswing looks more like a liquidity and leverage flush than the start of a new bear cycle. The Fear & Greed Index dropping toward 20, BTC’s RSI falling to the 22–30 range, and a sharp decline in open interest all point to a clearly oversold environment that often precedes technical relief bounces as long as macro conditions do not deteriorate further.
📊 ETF flows show a clear divergence, with Bitcoin and Ethereum funds seeing heavy monthly outflows while Solana and XRP spot ETFs attracted roughly $930 million in net inflows. That pattern suggests a cautious rotation away from BTC/ETH toward a smaller group of altcoins that are perceived to have stronger ecosystem narratives and newly listed products.
⚖️ On the policy side, Japan proposed cutting crypto taxes to 20% while tightening reserve rules for exchanges facing hacks, Thailand announced a 0% capital-gains tax on crypto, and the UK adjusted DeFi taxation in a more accommodating direction. The global framework remains fragmented, but these moves collectively add another layer of support to the long-term adoption narrative.
⚠️ Operational risks are still in play, as shown by incidents like the Upbit hack and the Aerodrome/Velodrome DNS attack, alongside a cluster of large token unlocks such as HYPE’s $400M+ release that amplifies short-term volatility. Even so, behind the lower price levels, infrastructure keeps expanding through Ethereum gas-limit upgrades and new stablecoin and yield products for institutions, painting a picture of a market that is under supply pressure yet quietly preparing for a more mature phase.
SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within the LVN and there have been 3 consecutive prior Long orders with very good profits, the projected stop-loss is around 5.17%. The uptrend is in the 48th cycle, with an increase amplitude of 21.92%.
SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry includes the POC and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 6.96%. The uptrend is in the 343rd cycle, with an increase amplitude of 63.12%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the HVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 2.15%. The downtrend is in the 245th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 16.23%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the HVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 0.74%. The downtrend is in the 229th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 6.79%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry includes the POC and satisfies the positive simplification condition with a prior very profitable Short order, the projected stop-loss is around 0.60%. The downtrend is in the 96th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 3.26%.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the HVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 5.51%. The downtrend is in the 265th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 42.64%.
SC02 H1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the LVN and satisfies the positive simplification condition with a prior very profitable Short order, the projected stop-loss is around 9.04%. The downtrend is in the 72nd cycle, with a decline amplitude of 40.84%.
SC02 H1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the LVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 5.86%. The downtrend is in the 101st cycle, with a decline amplitude of 27.44%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the HVN and satisfies the positive simplification condition with a prior very profitable Short order, the projected stop-loss is around 0.54%. The downtrend is in the 125th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 3.25%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the HVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 0.91%. The downtrend is in the 352nd cycle, with a decline amplitude of 15.49%.
SC02 M5 - the Long order has been triggered, with no profit yet. Entry lies within the LVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the stop-loss is 18.35%. The uptrend has lasted for 98 cycles, with an increase amplitude of 89.81%.
SC02 H4 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the LVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 7.22%. The downtrend is in the 114th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 34.59%.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the LVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 9.74%. The downtrend is in the 299th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 67.74%.
SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within the LVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 7.35%. The uptrend is in the 108th cycle, with an increase amplitude of 57.84%.
SC02 M15 - pending Long order. Entry includes the POC and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 4.59%. The uptrend is in the 187th cycle, with an increase amplitude of 28.93%.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the LVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 0.97%. The downtrend is in the 50th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 3.96%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the LVN and satisfies the simplification condition with 2 prior profitable Short orders, the projected stop-loss is around 3.74%. The downtrend is in the 82nd cycle, with a decline amplitude of 16.11%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry includes the POC and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 1.93%. The downtrend is in the 247th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 17.47%.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within the HVN and is not affected by any weak zone, the projected stop-loss is around 1.32%. The downtrend is in the 356th cycle, with a decline amplitude of 12.97%.