patrickc

#spacexfallsonaispendingafterdebutearnings 🚀🚀SpaceX ($SPCX ) beat big on revenue but the market sold it anyway — regular session rallied +9.4% to $125.33, then after-hours crashed -7% to -8.8% (to ~$114–116) when AI CapEx came in at $18.4B for the quarter ($15.8B AI) and management declined to give financial guidance. Now the bigger test lands tomorrow: Aug 6 lock-up of 911.5M shares ($105B at current price) — the largest single-stock unlock in US history , with short interest already at $23.6B (32% of float). This is a short-squeeze-vs-supply-avalanche collision setup . 🎯 Trade Setups (lock-up-aware) — ✨Long bounce at the lows (preferred if flush happens): ✨Entry: $105–110 (52w low zone, especially on a lock-up panic flush Aug 6–7) ✨Stop Loss: $103 (daily close below = structure broken; prior setup had $95 as deeper floor) ✨TP1: $120 → TP2: $127.5 (gap fill) → TP3: $135 (IPO price squeeze) ✨✨Logic: 32% of float is short ($23.6B, > Tesla). If lock-up day passes without mass dumping, covering forces a violent squeeze — the S3/Bernstein data makes this the highest-odds long of the week. 📰 Earnings recap & the real story The beat (Q2 2026, first post-IPO report): ✨Revenue $7.8B (+92% YoY) vs est. $6.9B — beat ~15% ✨Adj. EBITDA $3.5B (est. $2.0B, ~3x YoY); net loss -$541M (vs -$1B yr ago); EPS -$0.09 (est. -$0.26) ✨Starlink: $4.3B (+66%) , 12M subscribers (2x), op income $1.7B (+79%) — but ARPU -22% ✨AI: $2.6B (+250%) — fast growth, still -$1.3B operating loss; compute 1.4GW → 2GW+ by year-end → ~10GW by end-2027 $AMZN $AMD #AMDFalls8%AfterHours #BitcoinRecoversTo$64100 #USIranDealOrNoDeal #SpaceXFirstLockupExpiresAug6