The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big Moves
I’ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 years… This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do. In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses. This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about. Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is. Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions. The Two Trading Styles Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend) One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts. Let’s consider this through a visual example. Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher). Momentum assumes the level will break. You’re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken. Mean reversion assumes the level will hold. You’re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling. Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies. There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned. The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy). Lesson 1 Summary There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money. Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout. You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out. That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment. The Rowing Analogy Imagine you’re rowing a boat. You either row against or with the current. One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort. Your boat, or rowing technique, didn’t change… Only your environment did. Trading is the same. Your strategy is your boat. Your optimal trade environment is the current. Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current). Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level? What you WANT: A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement. What you DON’T want: A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum. The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further. Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly. → Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles. Real Trade Example: Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal ‘price approach to level’ for momentum. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like? Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it. What you WANT: Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum. What you DON’T want: Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?) Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic. This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact. Real Trade Example: Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅Filter 2: clearly increasing volume ✅ Lastly, Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum). What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend. What you DON’T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision. Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation. Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). ✍️Quick Actionable Step: To add the 30SMMA on your charts: Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30" Real Trade Example: Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume ✅ Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers ✅ 🎓Lesson 2 Summary Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Now you know what momentum is. You also know the optimal conditions for it. Next, you need to know where to execute these trades. Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently. I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article. Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals. Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article. Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart Once you’ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing. Why 1-minute chart? You learn faster. More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology. I’ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article. Real Trade Example: Step 3: Three Filters Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2: Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)? If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions. 🎓Lesson 3 Summary Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions. Now you need precise execution. Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup. This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution. Step 4: Entry Trigger We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing. Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing. Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward. → Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you. Real Trade Example: Step 5: Stop Loss A swing low is: the lowest wick in a pullback. Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout. Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if it’s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If it’s less than 1%, use the next swing low down. Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop) Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Why 1R? It’s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. You’re not trying to catch the entire move, you’re taking a high-probability piece of it. Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, you’re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach. Real Trade Example: 🎓Lesson 4 summary Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way. Immediate Next Steps✍️: Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria 🎓 Final Summary Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment. Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge. Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely. Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade. Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way. 🎓What Changes From Here The next time price approaches resistance, you won’t have to guess if it will break out. You’ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through. You’ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets. #CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy
The new product announcement landed two days before the unlock. The timing does not look accidental. $KAITO
They unveiled Kaito Pulse, a social layer built on top of X. Same day, a cinematic promo for "Aura" featuring Conor McGregor and LeBron James.
Season 2 rewards and airdrop talk are riding alongside it.
Price is down more than 50% over the past couple of weeks. On August 20, 32.6 million tokens unlock, worth around $11M.
So the story lines up: price falling, unlock approaching, a wave of good news timed right before it. That looks deliberate, and it is worth checking how the market is actually responding.
The numbers
>Price 0.3448, -1.91% in 24h >Market cap 82.86M >Open interest 15.42M, +0.9% in 24h >Futures volume 128.56M >Spot volume 15.02M >Funding -0.0267% >L/S ratio 0.66 >Top trader positions 1.24 >Taker buy/sell 0.73 >Positioning is mixed but meaningful
L/S at 0.66. Roughly 6 to 7 out of every 10 accounts are short. A real crowd.
Top trader positions at 1.24 against 0.66 for everyone else. Big accounts sit on the opposite side of the crowd. Whether that split formed before or after the news, it is there now.
Open interest barely moved, up 0.9%. The product announcement did not trigger much of a reaction in derivatives. No fresh long rush, no short panic.
-0.0267, and the trend is easing: -0.02, -0.07, -0.07, -0.05, -0.05, -0.03. It was deeper a week ago and has been drifting back toward zero.
uncertainty could squeeze them. If the unlock adds real pressure and the news never generated demand, price can take another leg down.
What I am watching
Taker flipping back above 1. Buyers becoming the aggressive side would be the first real sign the news is working.
The direction of open interest. If it starts building ahead of the unlock, new positioning is forming, and which side it lands on will matter.
The first 24 hours after August 20. That is the actual test of whether the unlock was priced in.
There are two stories running at once on $1000RATS and that is what makes it worth looking at.
Start with the split. Top trader positions sit at 2.31 against a global L/S of 0.87. The crowd leans short, big accounts are more than two to one long.
There is a detail underneath that carries the real meaning. Their account ratio is 0.79 while their position ratio is 2.31. So most large accounts are short by headcount, but the long side carries three times the size. A few very large longs. That is not a random distribution.
Funding at 0.0699 and the trend is clear: 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, 0.01, 0.06. Rising. Longs are paying now.
Price up 26% while open interest is up 39%. Faster than price. What is carrying this move is leverage, not spot buyers.
Taker buy/sell at 0.96, the aggressive side leans seller. Not the number you want on a token up 26%.
There is no spot volume figure. It is a multiplier pair, so there is no direct match, which means we cannot measure whether real buyers are underneath this at all. That is a real gap.
What the liquidation map shows
There is a very clear event on July 31. Price ran from 0.03 to 0.077, then gave it all back to 0.038 over the following days.
Two bands sit above. A yellow line around 0.077 and a green band just under it at 0.075. Both date from that spike and both run unbroken to the right, so they are still there
Below, a thick band at 0.0237 runs across the whole chart. That is the July low and it is far off The direction of funding. Above 0.07 and climbing, the daily cost gets serious and weak hands leave on their own. Back toward zero and the move has been digested.
Any attempt toward the 0.075 band. Those clusters come into play if price gets there, but it has to get there under its own power.
Whether the split holds. Top trader positions falling from 2.31 means big money is leaving, and then the one thing supporting this goes with it.
L/S at 0.54, roughly 6 to 7 out of every 10 accounts short. Top trader positions at 1.55 against 0.54 for everyone else. The gap between those two is one of the clearest splits we have looked at.
The structure underneath is clean too. OI at 20.6% of market cap, futures only 2.3x spot. Spot volume is 60M, close to the entire market cap. Among the tokens we have covered, this has some of the healthiest spot support.
The one thing missing is funding. Flat at 0.005%. The crowd is short but paying nothing to sit there, so there is no mechanism forcing them out. If something moves this, it has to come from spot buyers rather than funding.
Strong split, solid base, but no igniter yet. Worth keeping an eye on.
HEMI: open interest is bigger than the market cap itself.
What stands out most on $HEMI is OI at 139.4% of market cap. On a 6.42M cap token, open interest sits at 8.95M, meaning the derivatives book is larger than the market cap itself. One of the most extreme readings I have seen.
A book that size on a token this small means even a modest move gets amplified sharply.
On the onchain side, Binance moved 908K of HEMI into cold storage, 14% of market cap. Routine custody, but not a small share on a token this size. The immediately sellable balance on the exchange dropped by a measurable amount.
Price is down 10.66% in 24h but still up 34.76% over 7 days. So this is not a breakdown, it is a pullback after a strong run.
OI is down 5.8% while price falls, which points more toward voluntary exits than forced liquidation, though 181K was liquidated, so it was not painless.
On positioning, L/S sits at 1.24, the crowd leans mildly long. Top trader positions at 2.32, big accounts are far heavier long. There is a real split and big money sits on the long side.
But funding is flat at 0.005% and has not moved in six periods. Nobody is paying, nobody is collecting. No mechanism forcing either side out.
Taker at 0.87, the aggressive side leans seller, which fits a pullback.
The real issue here is not direction, it is size. With OI this extreme relative to market cap, both up and down moves can get disproportionately large. The split favors the long side, but the leverage level is risky enough to nearly override it.
I went back through the Dusk numbers because I wanted to separate what is already happening from what is still a thesis. The figure that caught my attention was the €300M+ in assets Dusk says are being brought onchain, alongside 20,000+ investors connected through the NPEX ecosystem. Those numbers sound meaningful, but I think the more important question is what actually happens after issuance.
That is where NPEX becomes interesting to me. It is not simply a crypto project announcing an RWA partnership. NPEX operates as an AFM-regulated MTF, Broker and ECSP, so there is already a regulated market structure around the assets. Dusk is trying to place blockchain infrastructure underneath that structure rather than asking the market to abandon its existing framework.
I also noticed that $DUSK Trade is positioned as the application layer for these assets. That changes how I look at the tokenization story. Creating a token is relatively easy. Making ownership, investor access, compliance, transfer restrictions and settlement work together is the difficult part. If those pieces remain fragmented, putting the asset onchain does not solve much So I am less interested in how many RWAs @Dusk can announce next. I want to see how much of that €300M+ actually turns into recurring issuance, trading and settlement activity. That would tell me far more about whether the architecture is working in practice.
I was checking TermMax vaults today and noticed something I think is easy to overlook: the APY is probably not the first number I should be looking at. TermMax is built around fixed rate lending and options, but when I’m looking at a vault, I care more about what is happening underneath that yield. The USDC Vault V2 currently shows $5.82M TVL with 4.36% APY and 75.7% asset utilization. So around 24.3% of the capital is currently idle. Then I looked at the allocation and found another useful detail. 68.98% is concentrated in one market, while the LLTV is 92%. That instantly tells me more about the current structure and exposure than the APY number alone. So if I were checking a TermMax vault before depositing, I’d go in this order: utilization, allocation concentration, LLTV, vault cap and timelock. This vault shows a $50M cap and 24h timelock, which are both worth knowing before making a decision. I’m curious how other people evaluate these vaults. Do you look at APY first, or do you check the underlying allocation before anything else? @TermMax #TermMax $TMX
$ACE has been paying negative funding for a month. The squeeze came, the funding never left.
Funding has sat on the negative side almost without a break since July 19.
And the expected thing happened. A move that started at 0.065 ran to 0.37 on August 14. Roughly six times. The squeeze worked, and price crashed back to 0.17 the same day.
Normally the story ends there. The trapped side gets liquidated, funding returns to zero, the picture normalises.
It did not. Today it is still at -0.83.
Which raises the real question
Who is still paying, a month later?
L/S sits at 1.32, so longs are the crowded side. Negative funding and crowded longs do not usually appear together.
When they do, there is one explanation: part of the short side is not a directional bet, it is a hedge. Someone holding ACE they cannot or will not sell is shorting the perp to lock the price. A locked token holder, market maker inventory, an early investor.
Those shorts do not close when price rises, and they do not get liquidated either, because they hold spot against the position. They have been paying for a month and are still there, which means they treat the cost as an operating expense.
Who made money
On July 19 price was around 0.065. It ground between 0.055 and 0.07 for the rest of the month. Today it is 0.188.
Three times. Six times for anyone who caught the top.
On top of that they collected funding for a month. Anyone holding a long here got paid twice, from price and from funding.
That is why L/S is at 1.32. Longs are crowded because sitting there pays from both direction
Any attempt toward 0.25. If a move starts in that direction, those clusters come into play and it can accelerate.
Funding returning to zero. It has not in a month. When it does, the reason to hold a long disappears and that is the real test.
The direction of open interest. If 15.18M starts coming down, leverage is clearing out.
I was buying USDT on Binance P2P when I noticed something strange in the advertiser's terms: the payment had to be made within a very specific window, and the seller said they would only process the order during that period.
I didn't think much of it at first because the price was good. Then I looked at the actual order limits and realized the amount I wanted to buy was close to the maximum allowed.
If I had entered the order without reading properly, I could have ended up trying to complete a transaction under conditions I hadn't fully understood, simply because I was focused on getting the advertised rate.
So before confirming, I checked the advertiser's terms again, the minimum and maximum order limits, payment method, completion rate and trading history. I also made sure the payment account I would use matched my own verified details.
My quick check now is: 🔸 Rate: Is the difference actually worth it? 🔸 Limits: Does the order size fit what I need? 🔸 Payment method: Can I pay exactly as required? 🔸 History: Does the advertiser have a meaningful record of completed trades? 🔸 Terms: Is there anything I need to understand before clicking Buy?
A cheap offer that doesn't fit your transaction isn't really cheap. I would rather spend another minute reading the advertisement than discover the problem after my order has already started.
🚨$BTC MAY BE ENTERING THE MOST IMPORTANT PHASE OF THIS CYCLE
A rare signal is flashing on the 2-Week Aroon Oscillator — and the historical parallels are hard to ignore.
Look at what happened before:
🔸 2014: June signal → September warning → January 2015 cycle bottom 🔸 2018: June signal → October warning → December 2018 bottom 🔸 2022: June signal → August warning → November 2022 bottom 🔸 2026: June signal → August warning → ???
The structure is remarkably similar.
In every previous cycle, the Aroon Oscillator moved sharply into negative territory months before the final macro bottom, eventually reaching the extreme -90 Cycle Bottom zone.
Now, the same sequence appears to be developing again.
If history rhymes, the current signal could be pointing toward a potential November 2026 – January 2027 bottoming window.
But there’s an important distinction:
This is NOT a signal that BTC must crash immediately.
The historical pattern suggests the first bearish Aroon signal can appear well before the actual cycle low. The key confirmation would be another capitulation phase followed by a sustained recovery in the oscillator
Signal → Deep negative momentum → Final capitulation → Cycle bottom → Recovery
We are potentially entering the middle stages of that sequence.
History doesn't guarantee the future.
But when Bitcoin prints a cycle-level signal that previously appeared around the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bottoms, it deserves serious attention.
Is #Bitcoin setting up for another late-2026/early-2027 macro bottom? 👀