CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 29 FOMC meeting. However, the 9–3 vote revealed that three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents favored a 25-basis-point rate hike, highlighting continued concern over inflation within the Fed. Rather than signaling imminent rate cuts, the statement reinforced a cautious, data-dependent stance.
For Bitcoin, the implications extend beyond headline interest rates. Investors should focus on the transmission channels through which monetary policy affects crypto markets: real yields, U.S. dollar liquidity, institutional ETF flows, derivatives positioning, and mining economics.
Higher real yields tend to reduce the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. A tighter dollar liquidity environment can also raise funding costs and limit risk-taking across digital assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's growing dependence on spot ETF flows means institutional allocation decisions now play a far larger role in price discovery than in previous cycles.
That said, today's market structure differs from 2021. Open interest remains elevated, but funding rates are broadly neutral, suggesting leverage is not excessively stretched. This reduces the likelihood of a cascade of forced liquidations similar to previous market peaks.
History also shows that Fed tightening alone does not determine Bitcoin's long-term direction. Outcomes depend on where the economy and crypto market sit within the broader cycle. While the latest FOMC may create a more challenging environment for short-term upside, it does not, by itself, invalidate the longer-term bullish case.
Going forward, investors should monitor inflation data, labor market reports, real yields, U.S. dollar liquidity, and spot Bitcoin ETF flows rather than focusing solely on the Fed's policy rate. In today's institutionalized Bitcoin market, understanding capital flows may be just as important as understanding monetary policy itself.
Written by XWIN Japan

Amid persistent geopolitical tensions and inflationary risks, the crypto market is struggling to attract liquidity, particularly from larger investors, who remain cautious and are limiting their risk exposure.
Since late 2025, demand has failed to rebuild meaningfully, pushing Bitcoin into a correction that is still attempting to stabilize.
Over this period, stablecoin inflows to Binance originating from whales, defined here as transactions exceeding $1 million, dropped from $63 billion to $25 billion.
Notably, when BTC came down to test the $60,000 level in February and June 2026, these monthly inflows increased, suggesting this represents a level of interest for larger investors. This dynamic has contributed to building an important floor for Bitcoin.
Currently, however, their participation has fallen back to its lowest level since the end of the October-November 2024 correction.
This decline in incoming liquidity on Binance, the exchange with the largest trading volumes in the industry, reflects the underlying weakness in current demand.
It will be important to watch today's FOMC meeting and the Fed's decision on interest rates, which could redefine the trajectory of demand in either direction.
Written by Darkfost

The chart shows that the amount of assets transferred by miners to Binance has fallen to near its lowest level in history over the past year. On the ETH side, the large transfer spikes seen in previous months have been replaced by historically low transfer volumes. Following a brief increase in June, miner transfers declined sharply and returned to near baseline levels by the end of July.
This is a positive signal for Ethereum's price, as miner driven selling pressure has weakened significantly. When miners send fewer coins to exchanges, the amount of ETH readily available for sale decreases, reducing immediate supply pressure on the market.
Using Binance as the reference is particularly important. As the world's leading exchange for both spot and futures ETH trading, Binance provides one of the most reliable indicators of potential selling pressure. The fact that miner transfers to Binance have dropped to such low levels suggests that miners are not contributing meaningful selling pressure to the market.
Lower supply from miners is generally a supportive factor for price. Since miners represent a natural source of market supply, fewer ETH deposits to exchanges make it easier for existing buyers to absorb available liquidity and reduce downward pressure. However, this metric alone does not guarantee a price increase demand must also strengthen.
The key takeaway is that miner selling pressure is at historically low levels, reducing downside risk for ETH. However, demand remains weak, keeping ETH in a sideways trend. A meaningful institutional buying wave could become the catalyst for the next upward move.
Lower supply is a positive signal for Ethereum, but weak demand continues to keep the price range bound. A new wave of institutional buying could be the catalyst for the next upward move.
Written by PelinayPA

Bitcoin derivatives markets underwent a broad reduction in leverage on July 28, ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with four major exchanges recording a combined $817 million decline in seven-day open interest.
Gate.io led the contraction with a $391 million decrease, accounting for nearly 48% of the total decline.
Bybit followed with a $178 million reduction, while
Binance and OKX recorded declines of $149 million and $99 million, respectively.
The synchronized move suggests that traders reduced leveraged exposure across multiple venues rather than activity being concentrated on a single exchange.
At the same time, Binance’s cumulative net taker volume showed a contrasting trend.
Bitcoin CVD improved from approximately –$3.2 billion at the beginning of July to –$1.7 billion, representing a net recovery of $1.5 billion.
Although CVD remained negative overall, the recovery indicates that aggressive selling pressure weakened significantly and that price pullbacks increasingly attracted taker-buying activity.
Binance therefore recorded a relatively moderate decline in open interest compared with Gate.io and Bybit while also showing a substantial improvement in active order flow.
The combination of falling open interest and recovering CVD points to a market reducing leverage ahead of a major macroeconomic event without experiencing an equivalent acceleration in sell-side pressure.
Written by Amr Taha

Open interest (OI) is one of the most important indicators for measuring how much capital remains committed to the derivatives market. Unlike trading volume, which reflects daily activity, OI represents outstanding positions that have yet to be closed, providing a clearer view of capital allocation.
Current data shows that capital is becoming increasingly concentrated. Binance holds approximately $31.3 billion in open interest, nearly three times that of second-ranked Bybit. Bitget, OKX, and Gate complete the top five, together controlling over 80% of the market. This concentration demonstrates that liquidity continues to attract more liquidity, reinforcing the dominance of leading exchanges.
While aggregate crypto OI has fallen from nearly $80 billion to around $65 billion, this should not automatically be viewed as bearish. Excessive leverage has eased, making the market structurally healthier and reducing liquidation risks.
Meanwhile, a new trend is emerging. Crypto exchanges are rapidly expanding into TradFi perpetual products, including equities, ETFs, gold, and oil. Although this market remains only about 3% the size of crypto perpetuals, it has roughly doubled since late May.
Rather than reshuffling the competitive landscape, TradFi expansion is strengthening the same leaders. Binance, Bybit, and Gate dominate both crypto and TradFi derivatives, leveraging their existing liquidity, infrastructure, and user bases.
From XWIN's perspective, the most important takeaway is that capital is not leaving the ecosystem—it is being reallocated. Crypto exchanges are evolving beyond digital assets into global, 24/7 multi-asset trading venues. The latest open interest data suggests this transformation is already underway, with today's leading crypto exchanges positioning themselves as tomorrow's global financial marketplaces.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin is trading in a bear market but appears to be exhausting it. From the all-time high, the individual sell-offs in the price are becoming shorter, while the bullish counter-reactions are increasing. As a result, the distances between the successive price lows are getting shorter and shorter, especially since the sell-off from early July barely fell below the low from early February. Since then, the price has stabilized around $60,000, so that selling interest in the market can clearly no longer assert itself.
Overall, the momentum of the bear market is therefore weakening and indicates an ending downtrend. In the trend structures, according to Elliott Waves, an ABC correction is to be expected, similar to the 2022 bear market. This ABC would lead to the supercycle wave (2), whose target lies in the marked based target zone ($35,564 – $62,413). Since the price has already reached the corresponding upper edge, the medium- to long-term probabilities of a cyclical trend reversal are increasing.
Furthermore, technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI already show the typical signals of a bullish trend reversal, including bullish crosses, bullish divergences, and oversold price levels. As a result, a bottom no longer seems far away, even though the downtrend still appears dominant. A final sell-off must therefore primarily be expected, which should lead toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $51,336 (red arrow).
Around the $50,000 level, various TA relevant parameters are located, such as the structural high from March 2022, which also caught the bottom during the summer correction in 2024. Likewise, the Realized Price and the 200-week SMA currently lie at these price levels, which historically signaled the bear market bottoms.
Written by STASolutions

Bitcoin's 30-day Open Interest (OI) data indicates a strong resurgence in derivatives market activity, with open positions surging to their highest level in more than two months. This follows a period of notable decline in June, reflecting a shift in trading activity and the entry of new positions into the market.
According to the data, Binance led all platforms in terms of 30-day Open Interest growth, with an increase of approximately 336,550 BTC. Gate.io came in second, with an increase of around 319,880 BTC, while Bybit ranked third, with approximately 137,860 BTC.
A rise in Open Interest means that the volume of outstanding futures and perpetual contracts in the market is expanding, typically indicating an influx of capital, the opening of new positions, and increased trader participation in the derivatives market. It may also reflect greater use of leverage, particularly when Open Interest rises rapidly over a short period.
However, rising Open Interest is not necessarily a bullish signal on its own, as new positions can be either long or short. Still, the fact that 30-day Open Interest growth has reached its highest level in more than two months suggests increased speculative activity and a renewed buildup of leverage in the market.
With Bitcoin trading near $63,000, a continuation of this trend could increase the likelihood of heightened volatility and large-scale liquidations, particularly if Bitcoin experiences a sharp price move in either direction.
Written by Arab Chain

The ETH/BTC pair is beginning to stabilize after months of underperformance, and several on-chain indicators suggest the downside momentum has faded. The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has rebounded from historically discounted territory while turning back above its long-term average. Similar recoveries in previous cycles often marked the transition from relative capitulation toward periods where Ethereum gradually regained strength against Bitcoin, although sustained outperformance has always required continued capital inflows rather than valuation alone.
Exchange flow dynamics reinforce this improving backdrop. The ETH/BTC Exchange Inflows Ratio has declined significantly from the elevated levels seen during previous distribution phases, indicating weaker relative selling pressure from Ethereum holders. Lower exchange inflows generally reduce immediate supply available for sale, creating a healthier environment for ETH/BTC recovery if broader market liquidity remains supportive.
Market participation is also evolving. Weekly spot trading volume shows Bitcoin still attracting the larger share of activity, yet the ETH/BTC trading volume ratio has stopped making new lows and is stabilizing after its recent correction. This suggests capital rotation is becoming more balanced instead of overwhelmingly favoring Bitcoin. Historically, sustained improvements in this ratio often precede stronger relative performance from Ethereum as institutional and retail participation broadens beyond Bitcoin.
The current picture does not yet resemble a full altcoin leadership phase, but it does indicate that Ethereum is rebuilding its relative position from a stronger on-chain foundation. A continued rise in MVRV, restrained exchange selling pressure, and expanding spot participation would provide the combination needed for ETH/BTC to extend its recovery. Until those conditions strengthen together, the data supports cautious optimism rather than declaring a definitive shift in market leadership.
Written by CryptoZeno

Bitcoin’s 7-Day Net Taker Position Hits One-Year Low Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Bitcoin’s seven-day Net Taker Volume Position Change fell to -3.43 on July 29, marking its lowest reading since July 28, 2025, when the indicator reached -3.71.
The current reading is only 0.28 points above last year’s extreme, signaling one of the strongest periods of short-term aggressive sell-side activity recorded over the past 12 months.
The indicator has also moved far beyond the chart’s -1 bearish threshold, reaching more than 3.4 times its magnitude.
This suggests that market sell orders have gained unusually strong dominance over buy-side activity during the latest trading period.
The timing adds further significance to the move.
The activity is unfolding ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest-rate announcement, with the two-day FOMC meeting concluding on July 29. The policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m.
ET, followed by the Fed’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
This indicates that traders are adopting a notably defensive short-term position before receiving confirmation of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision.
However, the extreme reading primarily measures the intensity of current taker activity and does not, on its own, confirm the next direction of Bitcoin’s price.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin spot trading volume has collapsed by more than 75% from its late-2024 peak, reaching its lowest level since the 2023 bear market.
On Binance alone, July spot volume fell to just over $35 billion, down from $246 billion in November 2024. Similar declines were recorded across other major exchanges: Bybit (-85%), Coinbase (-61%), and OKX (-67%).
At the same time, Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to trend lower. Over the past six months, the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges has declined by approximately 78,000 BTC, falling from 2.783 million BTC to 2.705 million BTC.
This combination is particularly notable. During typical capitulation phases, investors move coins onto exchanges to sell. The current pattern shows the opposite, with steady withdrawals into self-custody even as prices remain under pressure and trading activity continues to weaken.
While the sharp decline in spot volume reflects subdued short-term demand and reduced speculative activity, the persistent reduction in exchange reserves suggests ongoing accumulation by longer-term holders. For a sustained bullish recovery, however, the market will likely require a meaningful return of spot demand.
Written by theophiluspep

For months, SHIB’s on-chain activity was relatively quiet. But between July 25 and 26, the network experienced a sudden awakening. Over a 48-hour window, almost every major activity metric surged, suggesting a massive structural repositioning rather than ordinary retail trading.
The scale of the shift is notable. Network transactions expanded from roughly 3,600 on July 24 to over 38,400 by July 26. Simultaneously, total trading volume surged over 384% compared to the 7-day baseline, moving from hundreds of billions to trillions of tokens daily.
What makes this pattern stand out is the exchange flow dynamic. Typically, a massive spike in inflows (which jumped 323% to 943B SHIB on July 25) suggests an impending sell-off. However, Binance outflows surged right alongside them, reaching 896B SHIB on July 26. This isn’t a one-sided dump; it appears to be a symmetric, high-velocity reshuffling of supply. The fact that this intense volume of tokens was processed seamlessly through Binance highlights the platform’s underlying capacity to act as the primary liquidity engine during sudden macro shifts.
This combination—elevated on-chain transfers, active addresses rising by 44%, and symmetric exchange flows—usually suggests that major players, such as institutional wallets or market makers, may be restructuring their holdings.
The takeaway remains open. A symmetric expansion in network velocity after a long period of dormancy creates conditions that have historically preceded significant volatility. Watching whether this newly awakened supply settles into cold storage or leans toward the sell-side may offer clues for the next trend.
Written by CryptoOnchain

For months, SHIB’s on-chain activity was relatively quiet. But between July 25 and 26, the network experienced a sudden awakening. Over a 48-hour window, almost every major activity metric surged, suggesting a massive structural repositioning rather than ordinary retail trading.
The scale of the shift is notable. Network transactions expanded from roughly 3,600 on July 24 to over 38,400 by July 26. Simultaneously, total trading volume surged over 384% compared to the 7-day baseline, moving from hundreds of billions to trillions of tokens daily.
What makes this pattern stand out is the exchange flow dynamic. Typically, a massive spike in inflows (which jumped 323% to 943B SHIB on July 25) suggests an impending sell-off. However, Binance outflows surged right alongside them, reaching 896B SHIB on July 26. This isn’t a one-sided dump; it appears to be a symmetric, high-velocity reshuffling of supply. The fact that this intense volume of tokens was processed seamlessly through Binance highlights the platform’s underlying capacity to act as the primary liquidity engine during sudden macro shifts.
This combination—elevated on-chain transfers, active addresses rising by 44%, and symmetric exchange flows—usually suggests that major players, such as institutional wallets or market makers, may be restructuring their holdings.
The takeaway remains open. A symmetric expansion in network velocity after a long period of dormancy creates conditions that have historically preceded significant volatility. Watching whether this newly awakened supply settles into cold storage or leans toward the sell-side may offer clues for the next trend.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin's perpetual futures market is showing renewed signs of optimism. Binance funding rates have returned to positive territory after spending much of the past several months fluctuating around or below zero.
Funding rates represent the balance between long and short positions. Positive funding means long traders are paying shorts, indicating that bullish sentiment is gradually returning. While the current levels are far from overheated, the shift suggests traders are becoming more confident after a prolonged period of caution.
Historically, extremely high funding rates have often preceded market corrections because excessive leverage leaves the market vulnerable to liquidations. Today, however, funding remains relatively moderate despite Bitcoin stabilizing above the recent lows. This points to healthier market conditions rather than speculative euphoria.
The chart also highlights a notable contrast with earlier months. During Bitcoin's sharp decline, funding frequently turned negative as bearish positioning dominated. Since then, sentiment has steadily improved, with positive readings becoming increasingly consistent.
From XWIN Research's perspective, this is a constructive development. Sustainable bull markets are typically supported by improving derivatives sentiment without excessive leverage. Combined with recovering ETF inflows, stronger institutional participation, and improving on-chain indicators, the derivatives market appears to be confirming a healthier foundation for Bitcoin.
While short-term volatility should still be expected around macroeconomic events and regulatory developments, the recent recovery in funding rates suggests that market participants are gradually positioning for further upside rather than preparing for another major selloff.
Written by XWIN Japan

Strategy surprised the market by reporting no Bitcoin purchases between July 20 and July 26. Instead, the company sold 5.43 million MSTR shares, raising approximately $544.5 million, while repurchasing $25 million of STRC preferred shares.
At first glance, the lack of Bitcoin buying may appear bearish. Strategy has been one of the largest corporate buyers of Bitcoin, and its weekly purchases have often supported market sentiment.
However, the key point is that Strategy did not sell any Bitcoin. Its holdings remain unchanged at 843,775 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $75,476 per coin.
The bigger story is the company's growing liquidity. Strategy's U.S. dollar reserve has increased to $3.75 billion, giving it substantial buying power if attractive market opportunities emerge. Historically, the company has repeatedly raised capital through equity and debt markets before deploying it into Bitcoin during favorable conditions.
At XWIN, we believe this is a tactical pause rather than a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin thesis. The long-term accumulation trend remains intact, while the larger cash position suggests the company is preparing for its next move rather than stepping away from Bitcoin. For investors, the focus should not be on one week without purchases, but on Strategy's continued commitment to Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset.
Written by XWIN Japan

Derivatives markets have started regaining some positivity this July.
We can see this in Binance’s funding rates, which represent the largest futures trading volumes.
In this chart, the technical indicator has been transformed into a dynamic monthly aggregation designed to extract market sentiment rather than to build trading strategies, as it is typically used.
It’s a tool that can prove far more effective than the well known Fear and Greed Index, which during bear markets stays stuck in fear or extreme fear for the entire period.
Between March and late May, Bitcoin went through a strong period of pessimism, as the correction on Bitcoin had exceeded 50%. This buildup of short positions, mechanically pushing funding rates down until they turned negative, notably fueled BTC’s technical rebound, which reached $82 000 during the month of May.
This consensus of negativity alone is not what drives every reversal, as we can see on this chart. A contradiction needs to form first, with funding rates turning positive again before that happens.
This type of setup has occurred a few times over recent years. For example in September 2024, when BTC went from $54 000 to $106 000, or in December 2022, when BTC was trading around $16 000.
This setup is playing out again today, suggesting that negativity recently reached its peak, potentially leaving room for a bullish rebuild in the months ahead.
Written by Darkfost

Recent on-chain data suggests a loose correlation between shifts in Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) and localized price bounces, though predicting the exact magnitude of these recoveries is still difficult. Following the two major spikes seen around April 5 and June 21, the metric has recently printed another distinct peak. Since long-term holders are generally the most conviction-driven cohort, these surges above the baseline indicate that seasoned participants may be using temporary price relief to take profits and secure liquidity. While hardly a definitive forecasting tool on its own, watching this distribution behavior provides helpful context on how market liquidity shifts during rebounds.
Written by nino

Open interest — the total number of outstanding derivative contracts — is heavily concentrated. In crypto, the top 3 venues (Binance, Bybit, Gate) hold ~63% and the top 5 ~81% of the ~$65B total; Binance alone commands 35%
Binance holds the largest share of capital in both categories, with $22.86B in crypto (35%) and $720M in TradFi (~35%) — more than double its nearest competitor in each.
Aggregate crypto OI has moderated, down ~20% from its ~$80B peaks (Sep 2025 / early 2026) to ~$65B, even as capital rotated into newer segments like TradFi perps, which roughly doubled over the same period.
TradFi perps are the standout growth story. A newly launched 24/7 product for metals, oil and equities roughly doubled to >$2B since late May, positioning crypto exchanges to compete directly with traditional trading venues.
The platforms with proven infrastructure and liquidity are extending their lead into TradFi — Binance, Bybit and Gate top both rankings — so TradFi is, for now, reinforcing rather than reshuffling the existing capital hierarchy of crypto venues, even as it remains just ~3% the size of the crypto-perp market.
Written by CQ Research

Bitcoin derivatives on Binance ended July with leverage still elevated despite a sharp late-month liquidation of long positions. Open interest rose from roughly $7.1 billion in late June to $7.78 billion, an increase of about 9%, while Bitcoin advanced from below $60,000 to around $63,400.
Funding remained positive throughout the period, showing that perpetual-futures traders consistently paid to maintain long exposure. The rate approached 0.01% during the strongest early-July positioning but fell to about 0.0011% by 28 July. This compression matters: directional leverage remains in the system, yet the cost of holding longs has moved close to neutral, reducing evidence of an aggressively crowded bullish trade.
Liquidations reveal where the immediate stress emerged. Binance recorded approximately $40 million in long liquidations near the end of the window as Bitcoin retreated from above $65,000. Short liquidations were negligible on the latest observation after several larger squeezes earlier in July. The move cleared vulnerable longs but did not materially reduce aggregate open interest, suggesting that traders rebuilt or retained exposure rather than fully de-risking.
The stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s 28–29 July meeting provide a restrictive backdrop for leveraged risk, although they do not explain the exchange data by themselves.
A renewed rise in funding toward 0.01% while open interest remains above $7.7 billion would signal crowding and increase the risk of another downside cascade. A price recovery accompanied by falling open interest would provide a healthier reset.
Written by Novaque Research

Bitcoin’s Binance balance ended the month near 650,800 BTC, roughly 2,000 BTC below late June, despite climbing above 660,000 BTC in mid-July. The modest net decline reduced immediately available exchange supply, but the underlying flow mix does not support an unqualified accumulation call.
Daily inflows and outflows remained two-sided, with several large bursts on both legs. The clearest late-month divergence appeared in transaction size: mean inflow recovered to about 46 BTC while mean outflow fell to roughly 7 BTC. This suggests fewer, larger deposits were entering Binance even as the exchange’s whale ratio retreated to 0.40 from readings above 0.50. Large deposits therefore mattered, but the top ten inflows did not dominate total deposits to the same extent as they did during earlier monthly spikes.
Bitcoin still rose from around $59,500 to $63,400 over the window, although it pulled back from a peak above $66,000. That resilience coincided with renewed US spot-ETF demand, while the stronger dollar and uncertainty before the Federal Reserve’s 28–29 July meeting restrained risk appetite. Neither backdrop proves the cause of Binance flows.
Written by Novaque Research

Bitcoin volume readings this July confirm a trend that’s settling in for the long haul, market interest in the asset shows no sign of real improvement.
BTC spot volumes have dropped by more than 75% on major exchanges compared to late 2024. Binance alone recorded over $35B in July, a figure that remains far below the $246B seen in November 2024.
This isn’t isolated to one platform, it’s a global pattern.
Over the same period, spot volumes collapsed by 85% on Bybit, 61% on Coinbase, and 67% on OKX.
You’d have to go back to 2023, in the late stages of the bear market, to find volume levels this low.
Several macro factors explain this lack of appetite for risk assets.
• The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has weighed on risk sentiment. Inflation continues to fuel concerns about rates staying elevated, an environment that’s far from favorable for speculative assets.
• At the same time, equity markets kept absorbing most of the available liquidity, driven by exceptional tech sector performance, though that narrative started coming under question this July.
Against this backdrop, a return of Bitcoin to a bullish trend seems conditional on a shift in the macro regime, and above all a return of demand, the only real driver capable of pushing volumes back up.
Written by Darkfost