CryptoQuant Quicktake

The crypto industry witnessed two significant developments in July 2026. BitMEX announced its closure on July 23, followed by BitMart just three days later. Unlike the collapse of FTX in 2022, both exchanges are conducting orderly wind-downs with sufficient withdrawal periods, indicating planned business exits rather than sudden insolvencies.
Although their reasons differ, the message is the same: competition among centralized exchanges has intensified. As institutional investors, Bitcoin ETFs, and regulatory requirements reshape the market, users increasingly favor exchanges with deep liquidity, strong compliance, and trusted brands.
This trend is reflected in CryptoQuant's Binance Dominance Index, which combines exchange reserves, spot trading volume, mining activity, and whale participation. The index suggests that market liquidity and investor activity are becoming increasingly concentrated on Binance.
However, concentration also raises an important question: who should ultimately control digital assets?
Even the largest exchanges continue to rely on custodial models, where users entrust assets to a third party. History has shown through cases such as Mt. Gox and FTX that exchanges are not permanent.
For active trading, centralized exchanges remain essential. But for long-term holdings, self-custody allows investors to control their own private keys and reduce counterparty risk.
At XWIN, we believe the closures of BitMEX and BitMart symbolize more than exchange consolidation—they remind investors that as the industry matures, protecting assets through responsible custody becomes just as important as choosing where to trade.
Written by XWIN Japan

The Binance Reserve Realized Price is once again proving to be an important level for Bitcoin.
In 2022, after Bitcoin lost this level, it later acted as resistance, showing that the market had weakened relative to the average cost basis of Binance’s BTC reserves.
In 2026, the behavior looks different. So far, Bitcoin has managed to hold this level twice, suggesting that the Binance Reserve Realized Price has been acting as support instead of resistance.
This is an important shift. When a realized price level holds as support, it usually signals that the market is still strong enough to defend the average acquisition level of a major exchange reserve.
At the moment, this level is near $61K. If Bitcoin loses this support, it would be a more bearish signal, as it would indicate that price is weakening relative to the entire current Binance reserve base.
In other words, staying above the Binance Reserve Realized Price helps preserve a stronger market structure, while losing it could open the door to deeper downside pressure.
Written by joaowedson

• Jul 26, 2026:
STH: $68K.
BTC: $65K.
LTH: $49K.
• Indicator: By AxelAdlerJr.
Written by Facundo Fama

• Jul 26, 2026:
STH: $68K.
BTC: $65K.
LTH: $49K.
Written by Facundo Fama

Despite the BitMEX and BitMart bankruptcies reported last week, investors did not exit the crypto market. Instead, they moved their assets to more trusted centralized exchanges, primarily Binance and OKX.
This shows that, contrary to fears of a market-wide liquidity crisis, investors are simply distancing themselves from exchanges they perceive as risky. In previous crises, similar events triggered massive capital outflows. Today, however, investors are choosing to keep their funds in the market and transfer them to stronger exchanges—even as major geopolitical tensions and ongoing wars continue to create uncertainty across global financial markets.
In short, recent developments indicate that capital is not leaving the crypto ecosystem. Rather, the existing liquidity is becoming increasingly concentrated on larger and more trusted centralized exchanges.
The key takeaway is that the crypto market appears to be supported by a growing base of long-term investors. Instead of reacting with panic, these participants continue to hold their capital within the ecosystem, demonstrating confidence in the industry's long-term future even during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Written by theKriptolik

The funding rate data for XRP contracts on Binance indicates a return of positive momentum in the perpetual contracts market following the volatility seen in the second half of July. The funding rate reached approximately 0.00138, while the 30-day Z-Score registered 0.21, reflecting a slight move in the funding rate above its recent average.
Prior to the current reading, the funding rate experienced a sharp decline into negative territory, suggesting a temporary shift in traders' positioning toward short positions. However, its return to 0.00138, coupled with the Z-Score rising back above zero, indicates that long positions are regaining some momentum following the recent downward trend.
Nevertheless, the current Z-Score reading of 0.21 remains close to the neutral level and does not indicate overextension or excessive speculation in long positions. This suggests that the derivatives market is currently tilted slightly in favor of buyers, without showing signs of extreme positioning.
Overall, the data indicates an improvement in sentiment among XRP traders on Binance. A continued rise in the funding rate and Z-Score could signal an expansion in buying momentum, while a return to negative readings could indicate renewed pressure from short positions.
Written by Arab Chain

BTC flows into Binance are showing a notable divergence between retail and whale activity ahead of one of this week's most important macroeconomic events.
Binance Whale to Exchange Flow data shows that the 30-d sum of whale inflows fell to $3.9 billion on July 27, down from a recent high of roughly $7 billion on June 12.
That represents a decline of about 44.3%.
Retail inflows have proved considerably more resilient. The 30-d sum currently stands near $7.8 billion, compared with approximately $10 billion on June 5, a decline of only 22%.
This leaves retail inflows at roughly twice the level of whale inflows, with a gap of $3.9 billion.
The divergence suggests that the composition of BTC transfers into Binance has shifted: retail participants are currently significantly more active than whales in sending BTC to the exchange.
However, exchange inflows should not automatically be interpreted as selling, as the metric tracks transfers to the platform rather than the subsequent use of those assets.
Fed Decision Adds a Major Macro Catalyst
The shift comes immediately ahead of the Federal Reserve's July 28–29 FOMC meeting, with the interest-rate decision scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on July 29, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 36% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, leaving an unchanged 3.50%–3.75% target range as the more likely scenario.
Rate-hike expectations have risen sharply as energy-driven inflation risks returned to focus.
For BTC, an unexpected hike could increase short-term volatility by supporting Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar while tightening financial conditions for risk assets. Conversely, a hold accompanied by less-hawkish guidance could ease some of that macro pressure.
With retail inflows now running at 2x whale inflows, Wednesday's Fed decision could provide an important test of whether the current divergence between the two BTC cohorts persists or begins to converge.
Written by Amr Taha

🚨 Wednesday, 9:00 PM: Fed interest rate decision 🎙️ 9:30 PM: Press conference with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
🚨 Thursday, 3:30 PM: June PCE inflation data 🇺🇸 The advance estimate for second-quarter U.S. GDP will be released at the same time.
Right after the Fed’s interest rate decision, we’ll get the PCE inflation data—one of the key inflation indicators closely watched by the Fed.
We’re heading into a critical 48-hour period that could bring increased volatility across Bitcoin, gold, the U.S. dollar, and equity markets.
This week, managing risk matters more than predicting direction.
Which event do you think will have the bigger impact on markets: the Fed decision or the PCE data?
#Fed #FOMC #PCE #Bitcoin #Gold #USD #Stocks
Written by İbrahim COŞAR

The cryptocurrency exchange industry is entering a new phase of consolidation. Within the past week, both BitMEX and BitMart announced plans to cease operations, marking another major shift in the competitive landscape.
For years, the industry supported hundreds of exchanges competing for liquidity. Today, however, stricter regulations, rising compliance costs, and increasing institutional participation are making it difficult for smaller platforms to survive. Capital is gradually concentrating on a handful of global exchanges.
CryptoQuant's Binance Exchange Reserve chart reflects this structural change. After declining earlier this year, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have recovered and remain at relatively high levels, indicating that liquidity continues to migrate toward the world's largest exchange rather than being evenly distributed across the industry.
This trend should not be interpreted simply as increased selling pressure. Modern exchange reserves also support ETF arbitrage, derivatives trading, institutional custody, and market-making activities. As market structure evolves, reserve balances increasingly represent where liquidity and confidence are concentrated.
In XWIN's view, the closures of BitMEX and BitMart are not isolated events but part of a broader industry consolidation. The next phase of the crypto market is likely to be dominated by fewer, larger, and more transparent exchanges capable of meeting institutional standards. Going forward, investors should pay attention not only to Bitcoin's price but also to where liquidity is accumulating, as exchange reserve trends may provide valuable insight into the future direction of the market.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin drifted lower this week, closing at $64,297 on July 25 after failing to hold the $66,520 high set on July 21. The price move is unremarkable, but two flow metrics underneath it are less so.
The first is a sharp reversal in stablecoin behavior. Stablecoin netflow into Binance swung deeply negative this week, down over 315% versus the 90-day baseline. Stablecoins leaving the exchange typically means dry powder is being withdrawn rather than staged to buy—a subtle drain of purchasing power that often accompanies fading short-term conviction, even when spot price holds a range.
The second is more unusual. Inflows of relatively young coins aged 3–6 months into Binance exploded to extreme readings—thousands of percent above baseline off a very low starting point. Alongside this, the share of 1–3 month-old coins moving to exchanges rose roughly 208% versus the quarterly average. Younger coins arriving on exchanges generally reflects recent buyers, not long-term holders, repositioning—a group historically quicker to sell into weakness.
The backdrop stays quiet elsewhere. Binance funding rates remain flat near 0.00–0.01 throughout the window, so leverage isn’t driving anything. The Coinbase Premium softened to -0.12 by July 25, its weakest reading of the period, hinting that U.S. spot demand is cooling rather than stepping in.
The takeaway isn’t directional. It’s that two independent signals—stablecoin outflows and younger-coin migration to exchanges—are pointing the same way: toward reduced near-term buying appetite beneath a flat price. That combination has historically preceded softer, range-bound stretches rather than breakouts. Worth watching whether stablecoin flows turn positive again, or whether this quiet drain deepens.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Net Position Change, measured over 30 days, has surged to one of the highest levels on record. However, this does not simply mean that veteran investors are buying aggressively today.
A major factor is the 155-day classification lag. Bitcoin purchased months ago through spot ETFs, institutional custody platforms, corporate treasuries, and dip-buying investors is now being reclassified as long-term holder supply because it has remained unmoved.
Since the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, large amounts of BTC have been absorbed into institutional custody. At the same time, exchange balances have declined, reducing the amount of Bitcoin readily available for sale. The 2024 halving has also lowered new supply, further tightening market conditions.
This creates a structural shift: more Bitcoin is being held by investors with longer time horizons, while liquid supply continues to shrink.
Still, record LTH accumulation does not guarantee an immediate price increase. It is better viewed as a supply-side signal. A stronger bullish move would likely require renewed ETF inflows, continued exchange balance declines, improving stablecoin liquidity, and Bitcoin reclaiming key short-term holder cost levels.
XWIN views the current trend as positive for the medium to long term. The market may be building a tighter supply structure that could amplify the impact of the next major wave of demand.
Written by XWIN Japan

On June 1st, 2026, Gate.com launched real stock trading, USDT-settled and executed through regulated brokers, expanding coverage to more than 12,500 stocks and ETFs. An examination of daily data following this date reveals a notable shift in the composition of TradFi trading volume.
Volume Reallocation Across Asset Classes
Over the 30-day period ending July 25th, equity trading volume grew by more than 350 percent, while precious metals volume declined 48 percent and oil 16 percent. This shift should not be interpreted as a flight to safety, as the daily volatility correlation between equities and metals remains positive (approximately 0.59). The data indicate a structural reallocation of volume toward the new equity basket, rather than a temporary defensive rotation.
Broadening of Leadership Across Tickers
Through the end of spring, equity volume was concentrated largely in a single ticker (SPCX). Following the product launch, market leadership became distributed across several tickers:
GOOGLX led with 505 percent growth
AMZNX and COINX each grew approximately 300 percent
MSTRX and INTC exceeded 220 percent
TSLAX remained among the highest-volume tickers, up 129 percent
The distribution of leadership from a single name to a diversified basket is, from a market-structure perspective, a sign of product maturity. This observation aligns with Gate’s Q2 report, in which the user base surpassed 58 million.
Conclusion
The data suggest that the launch of real stock trading has driven a change in users’ capital allocation patterns beyond a simple increase in volume. The ability to access US equities within the same ecosystem, without the need for a traditional broker, has transformed the TradFi segment on Gate.com from an emerging product into an active and maturing market.
Written by CryptoOnchain

The current Z-Score for Bitcoin futures trading volume on Binance stands at -1.19, coinciding with Bitcoin trading near $64,000. This reading is particularly significant, as the indicator has been on a weakening trend since October 2025, before moving into negative territory and remaining at depressed levels over recent months.
A Z-Score of -1.19 indicates that the current trading volume is approximately 1.19 standard deviations below its 12-month average, reflecting a notable decline in futures market activity compared with typical levels. More importantly, this weakness is not a temporary phenomenon but part of a sustained trend that has persisted since October 2025, suggesting a gradual and ongoing decline in trading momentum and market participation within Bitcoin derivatives on Binance.
The prolonged weakness in the indicator has coincided with Bitcoin's decline from its previous highs to around $64,000. This may reflect reduced speculative appetite and increased caution among traders, particularly as futures trading volumes have yet to recover to the elevated levels seen during earlier periods.
However, a Z-Score of -1.19 does not necessarily imply that Bitcoin's price will continue to decline, as the indicator measures the deviation of trading volume from its historical average rather than the direction of price. A recovery of the Z-Score toward zero would suggest that trading activity is returning to more typical levels, while persistently negative readings would indicate that the futures market continues to experience relatively subdued participation.
Written by Arab Chain

The 30-day trend in Miner to Exchange Flow has remained inside a descending channel since mid-2023.
After peaking above 12,000 BTC, miners transferred 4,841 BTC to Binance over the past 30 days, representing 98.66% of all miner flows to exchanges.
Beneath price, this points to a structural reduction in the amount of miner-controlled supply reaching visible spot venues.
Part of the decline is mechanical.
Following the 2024 halving, miners receive fewer BTC for the same amount of computational work, meaning absolute BTC-denominated flows should naturally decrease. Therefore, lower flows cannot be interpreted entirely as stronger miner conviction.
However, the trend may also reflect a more mature mining industry.
Better-capitalized operators can finance expenses through debt, equity issuance, production hedging, or private liquidity channels instead of immediately selling BTC on exchanges. Another possibility is that some miners have already reduced their inventories, leaving less accumulated supply available for future distribution.
The recent recovery from roughly 3,500 BTC toward 6,000 BTC suggests miners used the price rebound to monetize production or cover operating costs. Yet the increase has already faded and remains within the broader downward structure. Despite Bitcoin’s renewed weakness, there is currently no visible expansion consistent with broad miner capitulation.
This is constructive for market structure because miners are contributing less marginal supply to exchanges. But it is not bullish confirmation by itself. The signal becomes stronger if miner reserves stabilize while flows remain subdued.
Conversely, a breakout above the descending channel, combined with falling reserves and deteriorating price, would indicate that controlled distribution is turning into renewed financial stress.
Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has recovered to 57.5% as of July 22, up from the 2026 low of 46.2% recorded on June 30.
In roughly three weeks, more than 10% of the circulating supply flipped from unrealized loss back into profit as price rebounded from the mid $50,000s toward the mid $60,000s.
This recovery is meaningful, but history sets a higher bar. Looking at the last four major bear market bottoms:
April 2012: approximately 69%
November 2015: approximately 64%
May 2019: approximately 83%
April 2023: approximately 77%
Every sustained exit from a prolonged bear market occurred with Supply in Profit at 64% or higher.
The current reading of 57.5% shows improvement and reduced underwater pressure, yet it remains short of the levels that previously marked durable bottoms. Short-term holders are currently spending coins near break-even, with STH SOPR hovering around 1.0, while longer-term holders have continued to show accumulation strength earlier in the year.
The takeaway is neutral to constructive rather than decisively bullish. Selling pressure from holders in loss has eased, but the market has not yet reached the profit cushion that characterized previous cycle recoveries.
It is worth monitoring whether Supply in Profit can push through the 60 to 65% zone in the coming weeks.
Written by theophiluspep

Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has rapidly shifted from a retail-driven market toward one increasingly influenced by institutional capital.
The biggest impact of ETFs is accessibility. Financial institutions previously faced major hurdles in holding Bitcoin directly, including private-key management, custody, auditing, compliance, and internal controls. ETFs allow them to gain exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts and established financial infrastructure.
By 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had grown to roughly $180 billion in total assets. Their combined Bitcoin holdings rose from about 620,000 BTC after approval to a peak near 1.38 million BTC, while still remaining around 1.2 million BTC despite subsequent market corrections.
Price-range data also shows significant ETF inflows even when Bitcoin traded between $115,000 and $125,000. This suggests that institutions are not simply waiting for lower prices. Many are allocating to Bitcoin as part of long-term portfolio diversification and client demand.
Participants now include asset managers, RIAs, hedge funds, banks, university endowments, corporations, and pension-related investors. Even a 1% allocation from a $1 trillion portfolio would represent $10 billion in potential demand.
The real value of Bitcoin ETFs is therefore not only price appreciation. They have created regulated financial infrastructure through which long-term global capital can enter the Bitcoin market.
Japan may eventually experience a similar transformation. If a future Japanese Bitcoin ETF captured only 0.5% to 1% of the country’s roughly ¥300 trillion in investment assets, potential inflows could reach approximately ¥1.5 trillion to ¥3 trillion.
Written by XWIN Japan

ETH is currently at 1,860 dollars. The average cost basis (RP) sits at 2,305 dollars. In other words, ETH investors are on average underwater right now.
When we look at the metric historically, the longer Ethereum stays below the RP, the weaker it gets, and price drifts all the way down to the lower band (green). We haven't seen that yet in the current bear rally, and the lower band sits around 1,150.
That said, ETH has started to recover in recent days, together with BTC. Will it manage to climb back above the RP for the first time this cycle without paying a visit to the lower band? We will all watch and see together.
Which do you think comes first, the RP or the lower band?
Written by burakkesmeci

$USDC inflows to exchanges have returned to a net inflow state.
After shifting to a net outflow state on May 11, stablecoin outflows persisted for over two months. However, it has recently returned to a net inflow state.
The fact that $USDC has shifted to a net inflow state signifies that U.S. funds are flowing into exchanges.
Generally, when funds inflow to exchanges, buying power tends to increase. This manifests as an upward price trend.
The $USDC netflow indicators show that the market is shifting toward a positive trend.
Written by CW8900

With the recent rebound in $BTC, small $BTC whales holding 100-1k have returned to a profitable state.
Large whales were already in a profitable state. However, they were experiencing minor losses.
The point at which they transitioned to a profitable state was the starting point of an uptrend. At the very least, a short-term rally took place.
Similar signals appeared last March and April, leading to short-term rise.
This time as well, we can expect at least a short-term rise. Depending on the trend, this could potentially mark the starting point of a rally.
Written by CW8900

Today’s BTC on-chain data points to higher short-term volatility and potential sell pressure rather than clear buy-side strength.
Exchange netflow reached +5,044 BTC, up about 91% from the previous day and the third-largest inflow in the past 31 days. This does not guarantee immediate selling, but it increases the amount of BTC potentially available for sale.
Funding flipped negative from 0.003826 to -0.001371, the only negative reading in the provided 31-day period. Long-side overheating has eased, but bearish positioning has strengthened.
Open interest rose 0.69% to roughly $22.5B and is now about 4.59% above its 30-day average. Rising leverage combined with negative funding increases the risk of sharp liquidations in either direction.
Realized cap, a supplementary indicator, declined for three consecutive days to about $1.061T. The drop is small, but it suggests that capital inflows are not expanding strongly.
Today’s evidence leans slightly toward distribution and short-term risk. However, this scenario would weaken if exchange flows turn negative while funding remains stable, which could raise the probability of a short squeeze.
Overall, exchange inflows are increasing, leverage is rebuilding, and funding has turned negative. This combination favors caution over aggressive directional positioning. Tomorrow, the key signals are whether netflows remain positive and whether open interest continues rising alongside negative funding.
Written by CoinNiel