The bitcoin halving is about 30 days behind us and the initial effects of declining revenues for miners are becoming apparent. A clear signal of this is the hashrate, which has recently dropped. Previously, the 30-day moving average of the hashrate peaked at 630 exahashes per second (EH/s), while it currently stands at 606 exahashes per second. Although this decline is still modest and brief, it stands out because the hashrate typically rises. This trend shifted after the halving.

The graph below shows both the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of the hashrate. Periods of rapid declines in the hashrate are marked in green on the bitcoin price chart below, often indicating "miner capitulation."

In practice, "miner capitulation" means less efficient miners are withdrawing. They are turning off their machines, resulting in less computational power available for mining. Additionally; they might relocating to other areas or selling recently mined bitcoin to cover operational costs.

Hash Ribbons operates under the assumption that such circumstances often coincide with significant price lows for BTC, eventually offering an opportune moment to capitalize on price dips. Typically, this does not occur immediately after the initial capitulation signal from Hash Ribbons, as the process of miner capitulation takes time. Instead, it unfolds in the subsequent days and weeks after less efficient miners throw in the towel.

Written by maartunn

When the price of Bitcoin reaches the previous peak of the uptrend cycle, Supply in Profit data reaches 100%.

Moreover, looking only at the red box, it appears as if the price has reached its peak. (Image 2)

Contrary to these concerns, actual cycle starts from the phase where Supply in Profit data reaches 100%, and the price rises while maintaining a certain range. (Red box)(Image 1)

In the period of 2017 - lasted 350 days, with a 1,500% increase.

In the period of 2020 - lasted 174 days, with a 349% increase.

Written by Mignolet

When the price of Bitcoin reaches the previous peak of the uptrend cycle, Supply in Profit data reaches 100%.

Moreover, looking only at the red box, it appears as if the price has reached its peak. (Image 2)

Contrary to these concerns, actual cycle starts from the phase where Supply in Profit data reaches 100%, and the price rises while maintaining a certain range. (Red box)(Image 1)

In the period of 2017 - lasted 350 days, with a 1,500% increase.

In the period of 2020 - lasted 174 days, with a 349% increase.

Written by Mignolet

Ethereum is currently viewed as one of the most undervalued assets in the cryptocurrency market. This perception can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Staking Involvement: Approximately 27% of all Ethereum (ETH) supply is currently staked in various protocols. Staking reduces the liquidity and available supply of Ethereum, potentially driving up its price due to scarcity.

2. Low Exchange Reserves: Historical data shows a correlation between low inventory levels of Ethereum on exchanges and significant price movements:

- In July 2016, when Ethereum traded at approximately $10, exchange reserves were similar to current levels.

- Subsequent low reserve points in February 2018 ($740) and June 2018 ($450) also correlate with higher pricing relative to periods with higher reserves.

- As of May 2024, Ethereum trades at approximately $3,000 with reserves at around 13,600,000 ETH, a level historically associated with higher future valuations.

3. Supply Constraints and Demand Dynamics: The current reserve on exchanges is roughly half of what it was during the peak in November 2021, when Ethereum reached highs of $4,800 to $5,000 with 26,000,000 to 28,000,000 coins in reserves. The reduction in available supply, coupled with sustained or increasing demand, especially from the growth in DeFi applications using Ethereum as a base or collateral, supports a bullish outlook.

4. Increased Utility and Adoption: Ethereum benefits directly as the foundational platform for numerous projects, including Layer 2 solutions and cross-chain bridges, enhancing its utility and demand. The ongoing trend towards using Ethereum in DeFi, for lending, and as collateral, alongside the growth in staking and ReStaking protocols, supports its value appreciation.

5. Market Trends and Future Predictions: The potential for the adoption of spot Ethereum ETFs and increasing institutional interest could lead to higher liquidity and possibly more stable price trends.

Written by Kirill Evans

Since the beginning of 2024 TON has outperformed bitcoin by 118% while other popular layer-one chains have struggled to find strength. One of my favorite ways to invest in altcoins is to isolate which projects have a positive trend against both their USD and bitcoin values. Of the major layer 1 blockchains TON and BNB are the only assets that have managed to meaningfully outperform bitcoin this year. In my opinion, TON’s relative strength against bitcoin coupled with the network effect of Telegram make it a crypto worth monitoring this bull run.

My checklist before investing in any crypto project:

- Strong on-chain and technical fundamentals (transactions, active users, applications, tokenomics, etc)

- Token in an uptrend against its USD value

- Token in an uptrend against its BTC value

Written by CQ Ben

Since the beginning of 2024 TON has outperformed bitcoin by 118% while other popular layer-one chains have struggled to find strength. One of my favorite ways to invest in altcoins is to isolate which projects have a positive trend against both their USD and bitcoin values. Of the major layer 1 blockchains TON and BNB are the only assets that have managed to meaningfully outperform bitcoin this year. In my opinion, TON’s relative strength against bitcoin coupled with the network effect of Telegram make it a crypto worth monitoring this bull run.

My checklist before investing in any crypto project:

- Strong on-chain and technical fundamentals (transactions, active users, applications, tokenomics, etc)

- Token in an uptrend against its USD value

- Token in an uptrend against its BTC value

Written by CQBen

Coinbase Premium Index I think the Fibonacci 0.5 zone will work as support.

The rise in funding rates shows that the market is excited. Therefore, we should be careful with long trades.

Open interest was rejected from the resistance zone.

I think the upward movement will start after the manipulation movement in the daily gap zone we are in.

Written by TraderOasis

The Battle of Giants - While Coinbase Holds Custody of Major Bitcoin ETF Funds like Grayscale (GBTC) and BlackRock (IBIT), Binance Remains in Control of Spot Trading. Currently, Binance's Spot Volume Is 5 Times Larger Than Coinbase's. This Value Would Be Even Higher If We Considered the BTC-FDUSD Pair, Which Is Not Included in This Analysis.

A relevant observation arises when Coinbase's Volume Share increases relative to Binance's: we often witness a moment of price surge in Bitcoin. Conversely, when its share is reduced, we observe a shift in trend and frequent drops. This highlights the inverse dynamics of these two exchange giants, especially considering their dominance over Bitcoin reserves.

Furthermore, the Binance/Coinbase Volume Spot Ratio indicator clarifies the relationship between the volume of these exchanges. In early 2023, for example, Binance's volume was 53 times greater than Coinbase's, marking a crucial moment when Binance offered zero fees on spot trades for the BTC-USDT pair. Since then, with the intensification of ETF news, Coinbase's volume has begun to reclaim a larger market share relative to Binance.

The dynamics between these exchanges are complex, but the graphs show that each exchange's dominance at specific times has a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin. It's a true battle between the market's biggest players, where competition is constant, and the outcome is reflected in cryptocurrency movements.

Written by joaowedson

Over the last two months, Bitcoin has traded sideways, after the recent rally that pushed its price beyond the all-time high. This prompts the question: what is needed to move out of this zone?

Historically, the most rapid expansions in Bitcoin have corresponded with significant increases in the global money supply (M2), signaling periods of high liquidity and strong investor risk appetite. These periods often see substantial new capital entering the market, typically culminating in cyclical peaks driven by retail investors' FOMO.

Yet, this dynamic has not appeared in the current cycle. Despite a slight rise in global liquidity over the past year benefiting Bitcoin, the year-over-year change in M2 has returned to neutral levels early this year. This shift followed persistent inflation data in the U.S., which led to a downward revision in the market's interest rate cut expectations from five to two for 2024.

Currently, there's a lack of immediate signs indicating a surge in demand that could significantly push prices higher. On the supply side, selling pressure has decreased as LTHs have seen price stabilization around $60k, and STHs have reduced sales due to decreased profitability.

Given this context, it seems likely the market will maintain its sideways trend until triggers emerge that can drive a decisive movement. Current market structure, including factors like profitability, leverage, and the age distribution of coins, suggests there's potential for a more expressive rally within this cycle.

The most probable scenario for me is that Bitcoin will stay within this trading range until a more favorable macroeconomic setting emerges, likely centered around the expected first U.S. interest rate cut in September. Such an environment could spark a new demand wave and a subsequent rally, marking the cycle's peak.

P.S.: The upcoming U.S. inflation data, expected this week, is pivotal and may shape market expectations about short-term monetary policy.

Written by Gustavo Faria

As evident from the above chart, the correlation between digital currencies and Bitcoin, the world's largest crypto currency, has been calculated, indicating significant and intriguing insights.

It's quite intuitive that all crypto currencies exhibit a positive correlation with Bitcoin. This is because Bitcoin serves as a crucial index and behavioral pattern in the digital currency market.

However, upon closer examination, with the passage of time and increased demand in the digital currency market, especially with the emergence of new digital currencies depicted in the image, the correlation or price behavior of these currencies becomes more aligned with Bitcoin.

In fact, this behavior is attributed to the maturity of these projects over time. Consequently, this study suggests that with the growing maturity of the digital currency market, particularly with the establishment of new projects, the correlation of these assets with Bitcoin will also grow proportionately. This likelihood remains significantly high in the coming years.

Nevertheless, it's essential to note that correlation does not imply causation or certainty in the behavior of two parameters towards each other. In reality, it's not feasible to generalize that in all cases, digital currencies will align with Bitcoin. Rather, the optimal conclusion from this study lies in understanding the importance of Bitcoin in the digital currency market, exerting increasingly influential effects on the market in each cycle compared to the previous one.

Written by Crazzyblockk

In 2021, during the peak of the bull market, approximately 2.7 million Bitcoin were held in exchange reserves, with Bitcoin trading around $69,000.

Three years later, the reserves have decreased to about 2 million Bitcoin, yet the trading prices are nearing historical highs. The recent halving event has effectively cut the potential new supply from miners by half, significantly reducing the likelihood of new Bitcoin entering the market through sales. Given these dynamics, it becomes challenging to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin.

Moreover, there is an observable depreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar. Anticipations are building around a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, possibly reversing the direction of its quantitative easing measures and considering a rate cut, as inferred from market behaviors. The U.S. economy appears to have adapted to enduring high inflation rates.

Personally, I avoid holding U.S. dollars; at most, I convert USD to stablecoins like USDT or USDC to purchase Bitcoin.

The critical factor to focus on is supply and demand. With the current market conditions, it is increasingly difficult for individuals to accumulate even a single whole Bitcoin, which should be considered a primary investment goal.

By distancing oneself and observing market trends, time will likely reveal the strategic merits of maintaining Bitcoin holdings. HODL!!!

Written by Kirill Evans

After reaching the unrealized profit and loss ratio resistance level towards the 2nd half of March, it is currently hovering above the 0.50 support zone ahead of the US inflation data expected on May. The question is whether the 0.50 support zone will break down with the US inflation data and cause a decline in the price, or whether it will be considered as a buying opportunity by investors as in a rising bull cycle.

Written by tugbachain

We can use the trend of Coinbase Premium as a leading indicator of the future direction of BTC price. As you can see from the data, when Coinbase Premium trend is 1) negative and 2) reverses from a downtrend to an uptrend, the price has rebounded. Its good example is when Grayscale won the Grayscale-SEC lawsuit to convert GBTC to an ETF and it led to a significant surge in the price.

FYI, the current Coinbase Premium trend is currently positive, close to zero. So if the historical pattern repeats itself, we may have a better chance of success if we wait a bit longer and invest on the rebound after the trend turns negative.

Written by SignalQuant

The two charts below illustrate the comparison between realized profit and unrealized profit by whales.

According to the realized profit chart, whales made significant sales on March 17th. This could be one of the reasons for the recent decline in Bitcoin's price. However, whales' unrealized profit is close to its historical peak. This indicates reluctance to sell by a significant portion of whales.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin All Exchanges Netflow: 14SMA can be the key for following trends.

Interpreting Netflow data can help us understand the trend.

What is Bitcoin All Exchanges Netflow?

The movement of Bitcoin on exchanges can be understood by looking at the difference between coins flowing in (inflow) and coins flowing out (outflow). This difference is called netflow.

High inflows may indicate a downtrend in the spot market, while they may indicate high volatility in the futures market.

High outflows may indicate an uptrend in the spot market, while they may indicate low volatility in the futures market.

14 SMA: The Key to Short-Term Trends?

When we examine the Netflow data since the beginning of 2024, we can clearly see the impact of the 14SMA on trends.

On January 12, 2024, the 14SMA (+)2840 was in the local peak region. Then, as the 14SMA weakened, the price started to rise. We then witnessed the 14SMA crossing into negative territory and the price rising aggressively. However, as the 14SMA started to rise again, we observed a correction in the price.

As we can see from the examples above, following Bitcoin All Exchanges Netflow and its 14-day moving average can be key to understanding short-term trends.

Conclusion

We can see that the Netflow 14SMA is currently in positive territory, which could indicate that the correction is continuing.

In addition, we observe that the 14SMA reached (+)1481 on May 7, 2024. When we look at the current data, we see that the 14SMA has pulled back to (+)1096 points. The price might go up again if 14SMA drop stops soon.

Thank you for reading.

Written by burakkesmeci

Individual buying is usually most active at the end of bull cycle. Majority of crypto's uptrend is very strong and the most money enter the market.

The current short-term money inflow situation is significantly smaller than the peak of the past bull cycle.

Although there are large whales that realized profits at $74,000 in mid-March, the situation is much better than in past bull cycle, such as approval of the BTC spot ETF, and institutional inflow, so the possibility that the peak of this bull cycle has yet been reached is low, around 20%.

Written by Crypto Dan

On January 10, 2024, the long-awaited approval for the Bitcoin ETF was granted. This development, previously marred by speculative news, had led to significant losses for many people. However, following the approval, the price of Bitcoin surged to levels between $72,000 and $73,000. Daily, markets were invigorated with increasing Bitcoin entries in many ETFs other than GBTC, and further price increases were anticipated. During this period, the major market player Coinbase exchange particularly stood out as the 30-day blue Coinbase Premium Index consistently showed green following the ETF approval. The increase in ETF volumes (colored turquoise) was supporting this positive atmosphere.

However, by March, withdrawals from ETFs increased, and the withdrawals from GBTC were already intense. This situation led to the disillusionment of dreams on the ETF side. Additionally, cautious approaches regarding inflation from the US further deteriorated the market. ETFs were inflated like a balloon burdened with goods by some and eventually began to deflate.

With this process, the Bitcoin price fell to $61,000, and currently, the ETF side is still weakly progressing. A return to its former glory days requires new inflows into the market. The best way to monitor these flows is by following the data presented in the daily chart below (30-day Coinbase premium, ETF volume, ETF price). Additionally, the futures dominating the market currently should be considered. Unfortunately, small investors continue to take long positions during downturns and short positions during rises. Here, the most critical point is managing the psychological state effectively.

Written by datascope

The NUPL metric assesses whether, on average, investor cohorts are currently holding unrealized profits or losses. This indicates the paper value of their investments—gains or losses that haven't been realized through selling.

Analysis of NUPL Trends:

- Volatility and Response Time: The red line is highly responsive to Bitcoin price movements, indicating that short-term traders react quickly to price changes. This cohort’s NUPL exhibits sharp rises and falls, showing their sensitivity to immediate market conditions.

- Trends Relative to Price: During periods of rapid price increase, the traders' NUPL often spikes, suggesting quick unrealized gains are being made. Conversely, during price declines, their NUPL quickly shifts to negative, indicating immediate unrealized losses.

- Zero Line Crossovers: The frequency of crossing the zero line highlights the traders' high turnover and active management of positions. This behavior reflects a risk-on approach where traders seek to capitalize on short-term market movements.

Combined Trends and Market Sentiment

- Market Sentiment Indicators: Periods where both groups' NUPL lines are above zero can indicate strong market optimism, whereas periods below zero suggest widespread pessimism or negative sentiment.

Implications for Future Price Movements:

From the chart, it's apparent that the NUPL for traders has recently dipped into negative territory, signaling a rise in fear within this cohort. The last occurrence of this trend was on January 24th, following the approval of a spot ETF, when Bitcoin's price sharply dropped from $49,000 to $38,000. This price level may represent a significant support line. However, if the NUPL for mid-term holders also turns negative, it could indicate widespread market fear and serve as a crucial risk management indicator for exiting the market.

Written by onchained

"Spent Output Value Bands" in Bitcoin refers to an advanced analysis technique that groups transactions based on the value of previously spent Bitcoin coins. This insightful approach allows for the identification of spending patterns and significant movements within the Bitcoin blockchain.

By analyzing the $100k to $1M group, it's possible to observe an increase in the frequency of large transactions when the Bitcoin price rises. This suggests that major market players are moving their coins during bullish periods to realize profits. These areas are often considered Distribution phases, where market makers seize the opportunity to maximize gains and minimize risks.

The "Spent Output Value Bands" [$100k - $1M] provide valuable insights into how large transactions are conducted on the network, identifying spending patterns and even suspicious activities such as massive coin movements. This in-depth analysis is crucial for understanding market behavior and investment trends within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Written by joaowedson

The blue line, representing the proportion of Bitcoin supply currently in profit, is notably high. This generally indicates that a significant portion of the market might be considering realizing gains, potentially leading to increased selling pressure. Historically, such elevated levels have often preceded market volatility and potential downturns as holders begin to liquidate their positions.

We are approaching the 'grey line', which serves as the optimism/pessimism threshold for the crypto market.

Market participants should be vigilant; crossing below this line could lead to a deeper correction in prices. However, if we remain above this line, market sentiment is likely to stay positive, and any correction could be short-lived.

Profitability is a crucial factor in market psychology, especially when macroeconomic conditions, such as the current non-supportive economic expansionary monetary policies, do not favor risk assets. Participants should carefully monitor these dynamics as they can significantly influence market movements.

Written by Kripto Mevsimi