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What should we expect in the new week on $BTC and $ETH? ---------------------- $BTC ---------------------- As I said in yesterday's texts, Bitcoin, which could not hold at $64,000, fell sharply overnight and is currently trying to hold at $62,000. If we don't see a rise to around $64,000 again in a short time, it seems quite possible that we will see a drop to $59,000 again. The most dangerous situation would be a break of this $59,000 level, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon. I definitely do not expect the price to make a new ATH again in June-July-August. I think the price will move in the $59,000-$64,000 band in these 3 months and I make my trading plans accordingly. In the short term, BTC should definitely not lose the $62,300 level if it does not want to fall to $59,000. Also, it's important to remember that EMAs act like a magnet and the price constantly fluctuates around it. A support from the 200-day EMA towards the end of the summer could take the price upwards very quickly. At the moment, this EMA price is hovering around $52,000, but I would say that it will go up in time. Also, if we look at the daily chart, it's hard not to see a really unpleasant series of red candles. These 4 red candles, which are getting harder and harder, could be a harbinger of a sharp decline. However, I would expect a rebound after this sharp decline. So I will enter long orders around $59,000. ----------------------$ $ETH ---------------------- I continue to hold my short position on the ETH side as I shared below. The reason why I have not closed this position yet is because I am waiting for the news of the rejection of the ETH ETF. At the moment, people are taking positions based on their expectations and my expectation for Ethereum is that the ETF will be rejected in May. In the long run, I think the ETH ETF will definitely be approved, but as Justin Sun shared, it's still early days. On the ETH side, I think we will see below $3,000 in May and that is my plan.

What should we expect in the new week on $BTC and $ETH?

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$BTC

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As I said in yesterday's texts, Bitcoin, which could not hold at $64,000, fell sharply overnight and is currently trying to hold at $62,000.

If we don't see a rise to around $64,000 again in a short time, it seems quite possible that we will see a drop to $59,000 again.

The most dangerous situation would be a break of this $59,000 level, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon.

I definitely do not expect the price to make a new ATH again in June-July-August. I think the price will move in the $59,000-$64,000 band in these 3 months and I make my trading plans accordingly.

In the short term, BTC should definitely not lose the $62,300 level if it does not want to fall to $59,000.

Also, it's important to remember that EMAs act like a magnet and the price constantly fluctuates around it. A support from the 200-day EMA towards the end of the summer could take the price upwards very quickly. At the moment, this EMA price is hovering around $52,000, but I would say that it will go up in time.

Also, if we look at the daily chart, it's hard not to see a really unpleasant series of red candles. These 4 red candles, which are getting harder and harder, could be a harbinger of a sharp decline. However, I would expect a rebound after this sharp decline. So I will enter long orders around $59,000.

----------------------$

$ETH

----------------------

I continue to hold my short position on the ETH side as I shared below. The reason why I have not closed this position yet is because I am waiting for the news of the rejection of the ETH ETF.

At the moment, people are taking positions based on their expectations and my expectation for Ethereum is that the ETF will be rejected in May.

In the long run, I think the ETH ETF will definitely be approved, but as Justin Sun shared, it's still early days.

On the ETH side, I think we will see below $3,000 in May and that is my plan.

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I would like to share and inform you about a few fraud methods. 1) Scam Tokens: It is possible to create multiple tokens with the same name. Therefore, it is very useful to check the contract address of the token you are going to buy. Otherwise, you may buy a fake token and never sell it again. A coin you buy as $ETH may turn out to be fake. 2) Fake Social Media Links: This method is unfortunately quite common and appears quite frequently on X. " Click to earn $BTC ! ", this link is probably a fake/scam link and can install malware on your device. Also, always verify the username of the person sharing the post! DefilLama's Google plugin helps to flag these fake accounts in red. 3) Fake Emails: Fake Emails are also a very common method and are called "phishing". The way to avoid this method is quite simple, look at the "to" address and make sure it is legitimate. Always check the sender, regardless of the content of the email. 4) Ponzi Schemes: Ponzi schemes are unfortunately very difficult to detect. Although they used to be easier to detect in the past, today they are very difficult to detect because they have more complex structures. Ponzi schemes are the projects that are doomed to collapse unless they get more users from outside. 5) Fake Apps: Unfortunately, Google App's app moderation mechanism does not work flawlessly, so sometimes they can present fake apps as if they were real. For example, Uniswap now has an official app, but there used to be fake apps on the market. That's why it's important to always use links from official places. 6) Fake Group Moderators: This is a very common method in Telegram and Discord. In this method, the scammer impersonates the admin and moderators with a similar username and pretends to help and sends a scam link to the user. Remember, no moderator will send you a non-project link or send you the first message! I have shared some examples in the images below. Stay Safe! #ScamRiskWarning
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A new week is coming and what awaits us on the $BTC side? --------------------------- As you know, this week we will be watching the closing of the month together. This time, the monthly close is very important because if it closes below $64,000, it could be a bad May for $BTC. In the table below, you can see the May performance for the past years. As you can see, for the last 2 years, Bitcoin has unfortunately been consistently falling in May. This is not to say that it will be the same this year, but it is worth being cautious and watching the close of the month. If the month closes below $64,000, the decline could deepen and I may start shorting. Our first support point for Bitcoin is between $62,300-$62,500. If the price falls back to this point, I may reopen a "short-term" long position. I would do this not to carry it for the long term, but to use the bounce effect and take quick profits. On the other hand, the first resistance point is between $64.100-$65.200. I consider these points as very suitable ranges to open shorts between these points. As I said in my previous articles, the $64,000 level is really, really important. I don't think we will see the +$70,000s again until this level is seriously broken. Also, the hype created by Halving and EFT has started to fade on Bitcoin and the trend seems to be shifting a bit towards Ethereum. If you take a look at the 3rd image I shared below, you will notice that there is also a decline in "Bitcoin" searches on Google. This supports the "loss of hype" I mentioned. The recapture of this hype and Bitcoin becoming a trend could happen in the fall with the approval of the Ethereum ETF. As I said before, I don't expect the ETH ETF to be approved this May. Keep in mind that I could be wrong, but I think we are in for a very short Bearish season (2-3 months).
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$BTC failed to cross the $64,000 level again today, but did not fall below it. At the moment, it feels like Bitcoin pricing needs some news, and until that news, good or bad, comes, we could be hovering between $63,000 and $64,000 for a while. If it's bad news, it wouldn't be surprising to see the price fall back to around $60,000. On the other hand, if it's good news, it could easily take the price to $67,000. When interpreting price movements, we should never forget to interpret volumes. There has been a steady decline in volume since March and according to historical data, it is quite possible that this decline will continue in May. Even if there are small sales with low volume, the price may show an excessive amount of volatility. It may make sense to scalp between $63,500 and $64,000 as the price fluctuates at these levels. However, make sure to set a stop loss according to your long-term plans. ------------------------------ $ETH failed to rebound from the $3,300 resistance. However, on the bright side, it doesn't seem to want to see below $3,100 levels again. Many news outlets are speculating that the ETH ETF will be rejected in May and there are some who think that the price has already reflected this. However, if the ETF is rejected, this could cause a serious drop in the price. If such a sharp drop comes, I would reduce my short positions and start adding long positions. But I would wait for the Summer to end for that. Even if the ETF is rejected during this period, I believe that it will trigger a real bull in the fall season and cause a very hard pump. At the moment I continue to carry my short positions. ------------------------------ Remember, it is impossible to know the future, but you can plan for future events.
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