Bitcoin hasn’t had the best start this October, with the anticipated 'Uptober' rally not going as expected. However, several factors suggest a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin this month. Here are five reasons why investors should consider buying BTC in October.
1. Donald Trump Leads in the Polls
Recent data shows that Donald Trump, a pro-crypto US presidential candidate, is leading in the polls with a 54.1% chance of winning the November 5 elections. Trump has expressed support for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and analysts predict that his potential victory could drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Historically, Bitcoin has surged after US elections, so regardless of the winner, the outcome could bring market certainty, benefiting Bitcoin’s price.
2. China’s Stimulus Package
Economists predict that the Chinese government might announce an additional stimulus package soon, injecting between $282.8 billion to $424.2 billion into its economy. This could be a positive development for Bitcoin, as Chinese investors may have more capital to invest in cryptocurrencies. China’s monetary easing policies have been cited as a potential catalyst for a Bitcoin rally.
3. US Fed Rate Cut Possibility
Although the latest US Fed minutes diminished hopes of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, there is still a high probability of a 25 bps cut. Fedwatch data shows nearly a 90% chance of this happening. A rate cut would increase liquidity in the market, potentially driving more investment into Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve’s decision is expected in November, shortly after the US elections, which could align with a Bitcoin price rally.
4. Post-Halving Rally Approaching
Bitcoin historically experiences a significant price surge following its halving event. Typically, a rally occurs between 150 and 170 days after the halving. It has been over 170 days since Bitcoin’s last halving in April, making a post-halving rally likely. Veteran traders, including Peter Brandt, have predicted that Bitcoin could surge to $135,000 during this period.
5. The 'Uptober' Rally Could Still Happen
Despite a slow start, October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months. Bitcoin has recorded average gains of over 20% in October, so a late surge cannot be ruled out. If Bitcoin experiences similar gains this month, it could surpass its previous all-time high of $73,000.
Conclusion
Several factors, including Trump’s lead in the polls, China’s potential stimulus package, and a post-halving rally, indicate that Bitcoin could be primed for a bullish reversal this month. Investors should keep an eye on the $66,000 price level, as a breakout above this point could signal the beginning of a strong upward trend.
