Optimism

The S&P 500 Index is falling, not rising, after the Fed's decision to cut rates, indicating a recession.

the S&P 500 Index is falling, not rising, after the Fed's decision to cut rates, indicating a recession.
Companies have stopped talking about a soft landing and are concerned about tariffs and uncertainty.
Consumers are spending less on everything from food to travel, and layoffs are on the rise.
The U. S. stock market is sending alarm bells ringing. Since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September 2024, the S&P 500 index has fallen 2%, which is atypical. Normally, the S&P 500 adds 1% within six months of a rate cut.
However, when the economy is in recession, the index drops 6% in six months and 10% in a year. The biggest drop recorded during past recessions was 15% in eight months, according to CNBC.
If the Fed manages to avoid a recession, the market usually recovers. When a recession is avoided, the S&P 500 index rises 10% in six months and 15% in a year. But judging by the developments, investors are not betting on that outcome. The Fed is cutting rates, but the markets aren't reacting the way they should if the economy is doing well.
CEOs have stopped talking about the "soft landing" - the idea that the economy can slow down without a crisis. In the last quarter of 2024, the phrase was mentioned in 61 earnings calls. Since the beginning of 2025, it has only been mentioned seven times. That's a steep decline. Businessmen are no longer optimistic.
In a survey conducted March 4-5 by Chief Executive magazine, 220 CEOs shared their predictions for the coming year. The results were the worst since November 2012. The National Federation of Independent Business reported that small business #optimism fell in February and policy uncertainty reached its second-highest level since 1985.
corporations are not openly criticizing Donald Trump's policies, but the focus of their attention is shifting.

Spending is changing.

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Retail traders have increased their long positions in bitcoin, but the whales are pulling back, suggesting a possible correction.

The #optimism of retail traders and an increase in excessive leverage could lead to a sharp correction in #bitcoin as the whales reduce their positions. Bitcoin [BTC] is at a crossroads, with the overall market sentiment divided between retail traders and whales. Individual investors are increasingly taking long positions, fueling optimism for a price recovery. On the other hand, whales are currently being cautious, closing long positions and taking short positions. Historically, aggressive long position building by individual traders often precedes a wave of market corrections and potential liquidations.
With the growing tension between the optimism of individual traders and the caution of the whales, the key question now is, will individual traders be able to push the market higher?
Between March 3 and March 9, retail trader activity increased, reflected in a wide spectrum from blue to yellow, especially when the bitcoin price came under pressure. In contrast, whales seem to have taken a more cautious stance, as evidenced by the decreasing number of red bars. Historically, market corrections have often been followed by a significant increase in retailer dominance without confirmation from the whales.
This divergence is reminiscent of past bull traps when retailer euphoria and whale reversals collided. The current divergence suggests that the whales may be preparing for a downturn, despite retail traders' optimism for continued growth.
Bitcoin: Retail traders are going all out, but at what cost
Retail traders' long positions A heatmap of the ratio of retail traders' long to short positions shows a sharp increase in long positions in various #altcoins since March 3. However, the bitcoin price movement shown in the top panel diverges from this optimistic view, indicating a growing divergence between sentiment and market direction.

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XRP traded relatively flat on Wednesday after a sharp rise on Tuesday following President Donald Trump's proposal to create a strategic U.S. crypto reserve containing XRP. Sunday's announcement caused the price of XRP to rise nearly 40% in a single day.

Notably, Trump's comments also caused trading volume to surge. Popular crypto analyst Ari Martinez noted the surge on Wednesday, tweeting that "over $5.37 billion #XRP has been transferred in the last 24 hours, emphasizing the increased market activity.
Meanwhile, Martinez reported that large investors have accumulated nearly $1 billion XRP in the same period. He pointed to data from Santimento that shows institutional investors have been accumulating funds, indicating a rise in confidence among institutional investors.
In addition to whale accumulation, indicators on the blockchain point to a surge in #cryptocurrency adoption. On Wednesday, Martinez noted a significant increase in active wallets on Twitter, writing that "the number of active XRP addresses jumped 620% last week, going from 74,589 to 462,650.
This data was released by Santimento on February 20 Compared to 10 weeks ago, 261 wallets now hold more than 100,000 XRP, indicating a growing trend of accumulation among wealthy investors. In addition, the total number of XRP Ledger accounts has increased by about 24% from January 2024 to the present.
However, XRP's growth has been driven by several factors, including potentially cryptocurrency-friendly policies in the U. S. and #optimism over regulatory reform. While the ongoing legal battle between #Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) remains in the spotlight, market sentiment is increasingly tilted in favor of XRP.
industry analysts are looking at new strategic partnerships, the launch of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin, Speculation about the possible creation of a spot ETF for XRP have been cited as catalysts for the asset's recent surge.

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Сетевые данные отражают всплеск крупных транзакций таких криптовалют, как AAVE, ADA и OP, что сигнализирует об их накоплении крупными инвесторами, заметили в компании Santiment.
Соответственно, если рыночные условия останутся благоприятными, действия криптокитов может вызвать ралли этих альткоинов.
В Santiment отследили большой рост транзакций криптокитов на сумму более $100 тысяч по следующим альткоинам:

Aave (AAVE) [Polygon]: +267%#HEX (HEX): +256%#OKB (OKB): +200%#Cardano (ADA): +193%#Optimism (OP): +140%#Trillioner (TLC): +133%Bitcoin Cash (BCH): +128%Curve Finance (CRV): +100%BitDAO (BIT): +100%GateToken (GT): +100%
Несмотря на повышение активности китов, в целом рыночные показатели остаются нейтральными. Генеральный директор CryptoQuant Ки Ён Джу указал на «игру PvP с нулевой суммой» на рынках альткоинов, подчеркнув, что общая капитализация этого рынка остаётся ниже предыдущего исторического максимума.
Джу заметил, что без притока нового капитала средства перетекают из одного альткоина в другой.
Топ-менеджер считает, что только немногочисленные альткоины с реальными вариантами использования переживут текущий цикл. Активность в сети остаётся приглушённой, а ключевые индикаторы нейтральны, что говорит о консолидации.
Что касается рыночной капитализации альткоинов (исключая биткоин и эфириум), то сейчас она равна $825,83 млрд, что чуть ниже 20-дневной EMA в $852 млрд, области сильного сопротивления.
Индекс относительной силы (RSI) показывает значение 40,28, а значит, альткоины приближаются к зоне перепроданности. Если RSI поднимется выше 50, это может подтвердить сдвиг импульса вверх.

Ripple's XRP hit a seven-year high this week, rising nearly 45% in just seven days and taking the spotlight.

In particular, the third-largest crypto asset by market capitalization rose to just over $190 billion on Thursday, after a series of positive developments in a legal battle with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission, reaching $3. THE CRYPTOCURRENCY'S MARKET CAPITALIZATION HAS RISEN TO JUST OVER $190 BILLION.
XRP's explosive growth is also attributed to a clearer regulatory framework and renewed #optimism about the growing number of institutional users of RippleNet; open interest in #XRP futures reached a record $7.7 billion, reflecting increased trading activity.
After XRP's stunning rise, some analysts speculate that #Cardano (ADA) will be the next to make a similar breakthrough. On Thursday, prominent analyst CryptoBullet noted a striking similarity between Cardano's current price performance and XRP's recent bullish pattern.
#ADA seems to be following XRP as it is drawing the same bullish pennant as XRP, CryptoBullet wrote on Twitter. wrote on Twitter, suggesting that ADA could rise more than 400% in the coming weeks if this pattern reaches its goal of
mature movement Another expert, World of Charts, agreed, noting that ADA is currently
Elsewhere, analyst "Cardano Hieronymus" suggested that ADA's price movement could reflect its performance in 2021, as the current formation seems to follow the exact pennant pattern of that time. He suggested that it may reflect performance in 2021. Specifically, $ADA went from $0.18 to $3.10 in 2021, achieving an impressive gain of 1,622%.
In addition to technical indicators, ADA's bullish momentum is supported by several key fundamental factors.
Specifically, the cryptocurrency's market capitalization recently surpassed $1 billion in a single day, with its price hitting the $ 1.11 mark.

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In this article: xrp breaks $3 mark for first time since 2018, up more than 31% this year.

trading volume rose 141% in a single day, with a market capitalization of $171.48 billion.
Ripple's legal battle with the SEC continues, but #optimism about the Trump administration is growing.
#XRP made its most dramatic comeback since the beginning of 2018 today, momentarily breaking the $3 barrier. However, it quickly corrected to $2.97. The cryptocurrency, which is often at the center of legal and regulatory dramas, has surged more than 31% in the first two weeks of this year alone, and trading volume
XRP exploded, rising 141% in a single day as traders and investors poured into the exchange. Analysts attributed the rise to optimism over Ripple's ongoing legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as rumors of clearer regulation as the Trump administration begins.
After the SEC denied Ripple's request to delay its appeal, the legal team led by CEO Brad Garlinghouse and General Counsel Stuart Alderoti complained about the regulator's heavy-handed tactics. Stuart Alderoti expressed his displeasure on X (formerly Twitter), noting that the SEC's rejection was yet another chapter in the legal nightmare #Ripple has been dealing with since 2020. At the time, the SEC accused Ripple of selling XRP as an unregistered security.
In 2023, Ripple won a partial victory when a judge ruled that selling XRP to retail investors did not violate securities laws. However, the court ruled that sales to institutional investors are a different story.
Now that Gary Gensler is set to retire, he seems set to deliver the final blow to Ripple by refusing to change his position that XRP is a security.
Related Articles:200 Million What are Ripple's plans for XRP after the $50 million acquisition?
#Bitcoin is not a security, Gensler reiterated in a recent interview.
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