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Data from the last six years shows that five large and medium-sized crypto assets generally gained value in December. However, the success of the “Christmas rally” is not intensified not every Christmas, but in certain bull and recovery years.
The analysis covers its December performance from 2019 to 2024.
1️⃣ Bitcoin: Big moves in bull cycles
Bitcoin experienced the strongest December in 2020, rising from about $19,700 to $29,000 to about 48%. In 2023, it rose about 12% with the return of ETF optimism, once again a solid increase in December.
On the other hand, Bitcoin lost about 5% in December 2019 and about 19% in 2021. It lost about 4% in 2022 and just over 3% in 2024.
Bitcoin's December rallies occur, mostly in periods of strong bull or recovery, not during periods of tightening or stress at the end of the cycle.
Around Christmas, the biggest moves usually happened after the holiday. In 2020 and 2023, the week after Christmas performed better than the previous week.
2️⃣ Ethereum: Tracks Bitcoin's cycle
Ethereum has drawn a range profile similar to Bitcoin with striking gains in 2020 and 2023. In December 2020, ETH rose about 21% from about $615 to $750.
In December 2023, Ethereum gained about 11%, following the overall market recovery. Both rises coincided with the improvement of macrosensibility and the strengthening of network activity.
However, Ethereum experienced a sharp decline in the bearish or years nearing the end of the cycle. While it experienced a decrease of about 15% in December 2019, 20% in 2021 and about 8% in 2024, it recorded a smaller decline of 8% in 2022.
In general, Ethereum shows an upward trend in December when liquidity is abundant and risk appetite is high. When macro conditions tighten, December performance quickly turns negative.
3️⃣ BNB: Explosive rallies in 2020 and 2023
BNB, formerly called Binance Coin, stands out as one of the names that show the most dramatic gains in December. BNB rose about 19% in December 2020 as Binance volumes increased late in the bull run.
Its biggest move took place in December 2023, jumping from $228 to $312, an increase of about 37%. This rise came after Binance's legal position became clearer and the spot volumes recovered.
However, BNB also experienced heavy declines in December. It lost about 13% in 2019, 18% in 2021 and once again 18% during the stock market-related FUD in 2022.
BNB's December record has a high beta value. When sensitivity turns positive, their rally outperforms Bitcoin, but their losses are deeper in times of stress.
4️⃣ Litecoin: Classic high beta
Litecoin acted like a leveraged asset on the market's December outlook. Its strongest period was December 2020, when it rose from $88 to $125, an increase of about 42%.
This move followed Bitcoin's exit and followed the larger payment support, including PayPal's entry into the crypto market. This reinforced Litecoin's role as “digital silver” in the bull market holidays.
Litecoin experienced difficulties in the following years. It lost about 13% in 2019, about 30% in 2021 and about 12% in 2022.
Despite this, it recorded moderate gains of about 5% in December 2023 and an estimated 7% in 2024. These small rallies show that Litecoin is still taking advantage of the risk-taking phases at the end of the year, especially around the halving stories.
Macro background is important
The data reveals that these five cryptocurrencies performed strongly in December, especially in 2020 and 2023. However, every crypto asset closed the month of December negatively in at least one year.
Rallies are concentrated in uptend macro environments and recovery stages. Meanwhile, the bear market in December is premising more defensive assets such as Monero and sometimes Litecoin.
In short, it is true that December has historically produced strong results, but whether the assets will complete Christmas in the green, the macro background and project-specific news specific to each year continue to determine.
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