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#USJulyCPI&PPIDueThisWeek (Short Summary in English)

U.S. inflation data drops this week: July CPI on Wednesday (Aug 12) and PPI on Thursday (Aug 13). Consensus expects headline CPI to ease to 3.4% annually (from 3.5% in June) , core CPI at 2.5% . PPI is forecast at +0.1% month-over-month . This data comes after July's surprise job loss (23,000) which weakened the Fed's case for further hikes . If inflation cools, it supports a September rate pause . However, oil price volatility remains a wildcard . Markets currently price ~44-49% chance of a September hike .

#CFTCOrdersKalshiToKeepOperating
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating (Short Summary)

The CFTC used emergency powers to order prediction market Kalshi to stay open, overriding New York's lawsuit that accused it of illegal gambling. New York seeks $36 billion in penalties. The core issue: whether Kalshi is a federal financial market or a state-regulated gambling platform. The CFTC has also sued 9 other states trying to block Kalshi. This order lets Kalshi operate temporarily while courts decide who has jurisdiction. The outcome will set a key precedent for U.S. prediction markets.

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