Tahir Raya

Today's market isn't just waiting for a rate decision. It's waiting for the message behind it. ​My base case: the Fed holds rates steady. ​If that happens, I expect the first 15–30 minutes to be pure algorithmic noise sharp, violent whipsaws in both directions as liquidity hunts for retail stops. The meaningful trend only begins once the market truly digests the FOMC statement and parses the Chair's press conference especially given the new leadership's known aversion to explicit forward guidance. ​That's why I'm staying patient. No chasing the first candle. No emotional trades. Just execution on confirmation. ​I'm zeroing in on three things: 🔸 The Policy Language: Any shift in tone regarding sticky service inflation vs. labor market cooling. 🔸 The Presser Delivery: How firmly the Chair pushes back against premature cut expectations during Q&A. 🔸 The Bitcoin Response: Whether BTC treats this as a fleeting liquidity flush or the structural launchpad for a macro trend. ​What's your play once the dust settles? ​🟢 Bullish 🔴 Bearish 🟡 Sideways ​Let's revisit this after the press conference and see who actually called the tape right. 👇 #FOMCWatching