GHOSTY-KING

CPI could be the number that decides whether the Fed stays tough or finally gives markets some breathing room.
The stronger Nonfarm Payrolls result matters because solid jobs data gives the Fed less reason to rush toward easier policy. If employment stays strong while inflation remains sticky, keeping rates restrictive becomes easier to justify.
For CPI, I’m watching the inflation trend more than just the headline number. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the Fed could sound more hawkish. That could push the dollar and Treasury yields higher, while putting pressure on stocks and crypto. Gold could also come under selling pressure.
A softer CPI would tell a very different story. Cooling inflation could reduce rate-hike pressure and give stocks, crypto and gold more room to move higher.
My bias right now is BEARISH on risk assets going into the release. I wouldn’t rush into a trade before seeing the reaction. I want confirmation from USD strength, Treasury yields and BTC/stock price action, especially whether the first move holds or gets reversed.
Do you think CPI can actually change the Fed’s stance, or has the market already priced in most of the risk?
#CPIWatch