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Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,199, trading below the psychologically important $60,000 level. While many investors are questioning whether the worst is over, a growing number of analysts believe the market may still have several difficult months ahead.
According to Bitcoin's historical four-year market cycle, the current bear market may not reach its final bottom until October 2026.
The 4-Year Cycle Explained
Since Bitcoin's creation, its price has generally followed a repeating four-year pattern closely linked to the Bitcoin Halving.
Each cycle typically consists of:
A strong bull market after the halvingA new all-time highA prolonged bear market lasting roughly one yearA new accumulation phase before the next cycle begins
Although every cycle is different, one trend has remained surprisingly consistent.
Could Bitcoin Fall Further?
Technical analysts warn that Bitcoin is approaching a critical support zone.
If current selling pressure continues, major support levels sit around:
$49,000 — First major historical support
$42,000 — A level several long-term analysts consider a likely capitulation target
$39,000–$55,000 — Expected bottom range according to early Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin
A deeper correction toward the lower end of this range would represent approximately a 65–70% decline from Bitcoin's all-time high.
While some technical models suggest an extreme scenario near $33,000, many analysts consider that less likely unless global macroeconomic conditions deteriorate significantly.
Institutions May Be Waiting
Historically, large institutional investors rarely buy at the exact bottom.
Instead, they often begin accumulating during periods of fear while retail investors continue selling.
This gradual accumulation has been observed in previous Bitcoin bear markets and could repeat if prices remain under pressure throughout 2026.
What Comes After the Bear Market?
If the four-year cycle remains intact, the next bullish phase could begin after the bear market ends.
Michael Terpin believes the next major cycle could extend into 2029, with long-term Bitcoin price targets ranging between:
$180,000 (conservative scenario)
$300,000+ (strong macro environment)
These projections assume continued institutional adoption, growing demand, and Bitcoin's fixed supply becoming increasingly scarce after future halvings.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Losing Its Power?
One of the biggest debates today is whether Bitcoin's famous four-year cycle still works.
Some argue that each halving has less impact because fewer new coins are created.
Others believe demand—not just supply—is what matters.
With only 225 new BTC expected to be mined per day after the 2028 halving, even moderate institutional demand could create another significant supply shock.
VRTrader Take
History doesn't guarantee the future, but Bitcoin's four-year cycle has remained one of the market's most closely watched long-term frameworks.
Investors should avoid treating any single model as certainty. Technical indicators, macroeconomic conditions, regulation, ETF flows, liquidity, and global investor sentiment all influence Bitcoin's price.
Whether the market has already seen its worst—or whether another leg down remains ahead—one thing is certain:
Volatility creates both risk and opportunity.
Stay informed, manage risk, and remember that successful investing is built on discipline—not emotion.
This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
#Binance #BTC☀ $BTC $NVDAB $SIREN

$BTC is like to continue it's bear trend. There is no confirmed ceasefire from any war. so no positive sign, not yet. Bitcoin is losing it's strength, higher sell volume is expected. Support is at 56k and 44k level
There is one important data we must check, it's the dominance of $BTC . Technically BTC.D is extremely bearish right now, barely holding it's support, that's a bearish sign.
on the other hand, stable coin dominance is increasing rapidly, it's about to break out. Shows a massive money shifts from volatile assets to stable coins.
USDT.D extremely bullish, bearish for crypto market.
Be careful, DYOR
#BTC☀ #TechnicalAnalysiss $ETH