As bearish momentum was weakening — as we showed using the #bitcoin Price Momentum indicator a few weeks ago — the probability of a reversal increases.
Since the start of bear market, sellers had been gaining momentum. That changed completely after the $60k low in February 2026, forming a divergence as low renewed four months later.
What we want to see here now is bullish momentum reaching 25+ — similar to 2022, when there was a true reversal of the downtrend.
We are very close to this, to confirm it for sure based on this technical indicator.
#bitcoin Impulse with a slight bullish divergence in play
The indicator signals a weakening of selling pressure during the most recent low #BTC price
This signal suggests a possible reversal from the most recent bottom.
If the price manages to break through significant resistance level with positive momentum above 30, it will likely confirm the bullish divergence — we’re keeping an eye on this potential setup.
#bitcoin is trading below the Cost of Production — currently around $74k —since February 2026.
Only during the 2018 bear market did #BTC price approach the lower band (Average Operating Cost) — this period was marked by most severe mining stress event in history, the BCH hash war.
It is extremely rare for price to approach the Operating Cost, currently around ~$49k.
- An interesting point: During the previous bear market (2022), Operating Cost band was in $12k–$10k range and was never reached.
#bitcoin Fear & Greed Index hits new high in 2026 — above January’s peak ⚠️
After months of Extreme Fear, market sentiment returns to Neutral>Greed levels, approaching Extreme region.
Sentiment shifted rapidly as the #BTC price rebounded significantly — about +26% in 5 days.
This short-term euphoria is normal, given that the market had been in a contracting phase for months. We will continue to monitor investor sentiment as greed increases and the risk of a local top forming approaches.
Price Z-Score 200d #bitcoin breaks above the Neutral Zone confirming the bullish divergence
This move suggests that the recent recovery trend is likely to continue in a bullish pattern, initially targeting the key resistance level at $81k-$90k changing the current downtrend structure.
Based on this technical indicator, the likelihood of a reversal in the primary trend it's practically confirmed.
Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI) #bitcoin remains in the historical accumulation zone after a bullish divergence formed.
The indicator is rapidly approaching the top of this zone as #BTC price attempts a recovery.
This region is considered as Extreme Bearish🟩(0–20): Historically, these levels have correlated with high-probability cycle bottoms, when there is an excess of panic selling at a significant loss, and “smart money” absorbs this capitulation-driven selling.
Realized Profit per Address #bitcoin near confirming a bullish divergence
The indicator is approaching the Neutral zone after 9 months in Capitulation territory
This metric uses a 365-day rolling Z-score based on Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) normalized by active addresses, capturing if are realizing excessive profits/losses relative to the annual historical average.
#bitcoin is approaching the PowerLaw support band🔥
Historically, these movements are rare and have occurred only 4x in the history of #BTC — in 2015, 2022, 2020 (covid crash) and now in 2026.
During the 2018 bear market, it came very close to support level, but the price reversed before reaching it.
PowerLaw fair value is around $172k, which is approximately +160% above the current price, indicating an extreme discount based on this model’s historical comparison.