Alphractal

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders: A Critical Shift in Supply Dynamics!

Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Net Position Change remains positive at +1.27 million BTC over the past 180 days, but the pace of growth is slowing significantly.

Historically, major shifts in this metric have coincided with important transitions in Bitcoin's market cycles.

While long-term holder supply continues to expand, the recent decline in momentum deserves close attention.

Is this just a temporary slowdown, or the early stages of a new distribution phase?

Data: Alphractal

$BTC

Bitcoin once dominated the crypto derivatives market, accounting for over 90% of total Open Interest. That landscape has changed dramatically.

Analyzing data from 30 of the largest crypto exchanges, altcoins now account for 57.4% of total Open Interest, while Bitcoin represents 42.6%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points.

This structural shift shows how derivatives exposure has expanded beyond Bitcoin, making altcoins increasingly important in understanding market volatility, liquidity dynamics, and liquidation risk.

Bitcoin alone no longer tells the full story of the crypto derivatives market.

Source: Alphractal

$BTC $ETH $XRP

One way to anticipate major volatility in the crypto market is by analyzing Bitcoin's correlation with the top altcoins.

Watch what happens when altcoins stop following Bitcoin's price movements and how the market reacts shortly afterward!
These moments are relatively rare. In this case, I used the 1-hour timeframe with a 48-hour rolling correlation window, measuring the relationship over the past two days.

Typically, this happens when altcoins are falling while Bitcoin is rising, or when altcoins are rising while Bitcoin is falling.
These divergences are often a warning sign of major liquidation events!

Alphractal is now one of the few platforms where you can explore charts like these across all timeframes, starting from just 1 minute, along with indicators such as the Altcoin Season Index!

#Bitcoin $BTC

Bitcoin is increasingly trading on its own terms.

The traditional 252 day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 price levels is now at its lowest point in 11 years.

However, price level correlations can be heavily influenced by long term trends. That is why we created a second and more robust view: the 252 day correlation between their daily logarithmic returns.

That correlation is currently around 0.37 and falling.

This means Bitcoin and the S&P 500 still share some daily risk behavior, but the relationship is only moderate and continues to weaken.

Why does this matter?

Because Bitcoin does not need the traditional market to lead every stage of its cycle. BTC can build a macro bottom and transition into a new bull market even while traditional markets follow a completely different path.

Correlations are not permanent. They change as market regimes change.

Bitcoin is showing that it has a life of its own. Data should define the narrative, not the other way around.

Data Source: Alphractal

Maybe SOL, XRP, and HYPE still have one final drop ahead, designed to liquidate the remaining bulls and push spot investors into giving up and selling at a realized loss.

I do not believe it will be that simple or easy.

This is the crypto market I know. Still, my feeling is that this wave of long liquidations is already approaching its end.

$ETH $HYPE $SOL

Whales vs. Retail Delta is rising again, and you need to see this.

This means whales have reduced their short positions and are beginning to show more interest in longs across the top 250 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, which currently has a positive reading that is even stronger than most altcoins.

Meanwhile, smaller positions, typically associated with retail traders, are moving in the opposite direction and betting on further downside.

The Whale vs. Retail Delta clearly shows that around the recent $58K bottom, there was a massive increase in long exposure among whale positions.

Is this a genuine signal of growing optimism, or are whales simply taking advantage of a short term trading opportunity?

Share your opinion in the comments.

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🐳Whales vs Retail shows that whales have reached a level of interest in Bitcoin Shorts very similar to what we saw in 2022.

Meanwhile, retail continues to move in the opposite direction, persistently favoring Longs.

This is a challenging moment for Short-Term Holders and leveraged traders.

When whales and retail are positioned so differently, risk increases and high-quality signals become even more important.

Do not stay without this signal.

Activate your alerts on @Alphractal

The short term still looks terrible for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Bitcoin liquidity changes constantly, and over the past few hours many traders have continued opening long positions.

For now, I think doing that is a terrible decision.

Activate your alerts on Liquidation Levels and only enter when other traders are seriously hurt.

The only thing Short-Term Holders are doing right now is realizing losses.

Bitcoin has not allowed these investors to realize profits for quite some time.
The STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio makes it clear that the current environment is dominated by on-chain movements at a loss.

This is typical of a bear market, and once Realized Loss starts losing strength, Bitcoin will likely be in the process of forming a bottom.

That is why it is necessary to monitor this closely on Alphractal!

⚠️Crypto market sentiment is now in Extreme Fear and flashing “Very Bearish” according to sentiment metrics.

And, as usual, Google searches related to crypto are rising again, intensifying the panic even more.

We’re heading into a week of heavy volatility.

Stay sharp. Follow the Alpha.

⚠️Dogecoin is in a price bottoming phase!

This metric has been one of the most accurate throughout Dogecoin’s history. Every time $DOGE approached it or spent just a few days below it, major price bottoms followed.

The latest signal will be triggered whenever Dogecoin drops below $0.08.

The smartest investors will accumulate a lot of DOGE below $0.08.

And I’m warning you ahead of time.

So accumulate during the capitulation phase and hold this crazy memecoin for a long time!

Several times in recent history, Bitcoin started falling before the S&P 500.

In many moments, BTC acted as an early warning signal for selling pressure in traditional markets.

This became even more evident after the Corona Dump in 2020, when the correlation between crypto, global liquidity, and risk assets became much more sensitive.

Bitcoin trades 24/7.
The S&P 500 does not.
That is why, when liquidity starts drying up, BTC often feels it first.

Maybe crypto is not just “more volatile.”

Maybe it is the first market to scream when risk starts leaving the table.

Most of crypto Twitter is calling for $50K BTC. The Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index just printed the rarest macro signal of the last decade. Here's what almost nobody is reading.

ADCI is a Wyckoffian macro compass for BTC. Scale 0 to 100. Three zones:

Distribution, 70 to 100: cycle tops, insider exit during euphoria.

Markup/Markdown, 30 to 70: trend in motion.

Accumulation, 0 to 30: smart money absorption during disbelief. Cycle bottoms.

Where is ADCI today? Crashing through the lower 20s, the Wyckoff accumulation pole.

The exact zone that printed at the 2018 cycle low, before the next leg of +250%; the March 2020 COVID flush, before the next leg of +650%; and the late 2022 post-FTX bottom, before the next leg of +400%.

Three prior reads at this level. Three multi-year bull legs that followed within 8 months. Small sample, but the hit rate is 3 for 3.

The crowd reads “BTC down 4.6% overnight, ETFs bleeding, fear extreme” as confirmation of more downside.

We read it as the textbook accumulation signature: supply being absorbed by smart money at the exact moment retail conviction breaks.

Price is the noise. ADCI is the signal.

We are not calling the absolute bottom tick. We are calling the macro accumulation regime. That is the only call that has actually mattered across four BTC cycles.

On-chain signals continue to work extremely well.

Metrics like Reserve Risk Indicators are a great example, especially for understanding sentiment across UTXO-based blockchains.

Those who took these signals seriously had the chance to reduce exposure in assets like $BTC , $LTC and $DOGE at much better moments.

Now, the same data is starting to show where accumulation opportunities may appear again.

Reserve Risk helps measure long-term holder conviction versus market pricing. When readings are low, risk/reward has historically been more attractive. When readings are high, the market is often overheated.

When combined with activity measures inspired by VOCDD and MVOCDD, we can better identify when long-term holders are quiet, when they are distributing, and when the market is entering a more interesting accumulation zone.

This is why on-chain data still matters.

It does not predict every candle.

But it helps identify when the crowd is late, when holders are selling, and when the risk/reward starts to change.

Data > Narratives.

📉 ETH Open Interest down ~50% since August

Ethereum’s Open Interest today is worth roughly half of what it was in August, signaling a significant reduction in market risk.
This move indicates that institutions and large whales have closed leveraged ETH positions en masse, reducing exposure and speculative pressure.

🔍 Current Open Interest distribution by exchange:
Binance → $7.64B (31%)
Gateio → $3.72B (15%)
HTX (ex-Huobi) → $3.12B (12.65%)
Bybit → $2.53B (10.25%)
HyperLiquid → $2.51B (10.18%)
Bitget → $1.79B (7.25%)

What does this tell us?
- Strong deleverage across the ETH market
- Lower probability of explosive moves in the short term
A more defensive and cautious environment, typical of consolidation phases or preparation for the next trend leg.
However, historically, deep drops in Open Interest often precede major structural moves—either a continuation to the downside with less leverage, or a healthier reversal.

🔗Alphractal. com

📉 The Fed Funds / 10Y Treasury ratio has been declining since 2023.

Historically, this move has tended to precede bear markets in the S&P 500, as it signals that monetary policy is becoming restrictive relative to future growth.
The key point is that markets usually fall after, not exactly when, the divergence first appears.
In the current cycle, the decline in the ratio is not driven by actual rate cuts. Instead, it reflects expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the future. At the same time, the 10-year yield remains compressed due to structural factors—such as defensive demand for Treasuries, global deleveraging, and excess liquidity—rather than an already-established recession.
This creates a distorted reading: the indicator suggests relative tightening, but the economy has not yet entered contraction.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to rise because the rally is not macro-driven—it is micro-driven. It is supported by earnings growth in specific companies, extreme concentration in Big Tech, AI-related investments, and strong cash flow generation, rather than broad economic expansion. In past cycles, such as 1999–2000 and 2019, the market also ignored this type of signal for months before the adjustment occurred.
For this reason, the current divergence does not invalidate the indicator. It shows that structural risk is increasing, but that the timing trigger has not yet been activated. Historically, bear markets tend to begin only when rate cuts become real, corporate earnings are revised downward, and credit conditions start to tighten.

📌 Summary:
The Fed Funds / 10Y Treasury is acting as a regime warning, not an immediate trigger. The market can still rise, but the asymmetry is no longer favorable.

🧨 The latest Bitcoin drop wasn’t “just another correction.”
It was a clear capitulation event.
And you can prove it by looking at three signals that rarely show up together:

1️⃣ Hash Rate plunged over 30 days
Miners shutting down machines = real pressure on the ecosystem.
When miners start bleeding, it usually means the market is hitting its limit.
2️⃣ Price drawdown hit extreme levels
A fast, violent drop — way outside the historical median.
This isn’t a technical move… it’s pain. It’s forced selling. It’s liquidation.
3️⃣ Active supply spiked
People who usually hold BTC for months (or years) started spending their coins.
This behavior only appears when sentiment breaks.
When these three signals flash at the same time, the Capitulation Oscillator shoots up — and that almost always marks the final phase of a downtrend or a flattening phase like we saw in 2021.

It’s not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, of course.
But historically, moments like this are rare… and often open opportunities that only show up once or twice per cycle.
If you follow on-chain data, you know exactly what this means.

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When the annual Rate of Change of the S&P500 drops and turns negative, BTC has historically found its price bottom.
A simple metric — yet completely off the radar for most people.
And here’s the crazy part: this doesn’t apply only to the S&P 500.
Several global indices show the same pattern, revealing how stocks and Bitcoin share a deep liquidity relationship.
When one strengthens, the other weakens… and then they switch roles again.

And now, on Alphractal, you can analyze Rate of Change for hundreds of metrics — macro, on-chain, sentiment, and market data — all with one click.
Our 70% discount has been extended until December 5th.
A perfect chance to unlock powerful insights and spot the next alpha.
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Traders holding short positions in $BNB have started to get liquidated!
The aggregated 1-month and 3-month liquidation levels showed a strong concentration of positions set to be liquidated above $900.
Historically, when a large number of shorts get liquidated, it often leads to the formation of local tops for a certain period, until new liquidation levels are established.

👉 Alphractal.com

Altcoins like $ENA and $TRUMP are showing extremely high leverage, while ENA, OKB, ARB, and $MKR record the highest 24h Liquidations / Open Interest ratios.
ENA and TRUMP rank among the top altcoins by Market Cap with the highest Open Interest / Market Cap ratios, signaling high risk when these values are elevated. In other words, traders are heavily speculating and opening leveraged positions.
Meanwhile, the 24h Liquidations / Open Interest ratio shows how much of the high Open Interest was liquidated in the past 24 hours — an indicator of volatility and mass liquidations. Altcoins like ENA, OKB, ARB, and MKR currently have the highest levels.
For more conservative trading, avoiding these altcoins reduces the chances of liquidation, since volatility driven by speculation will be more present in them.

👉 Evaluate your altcoin’s risk at Alphractal.com