◢ Re-poster

Nasdaq futures open interest jumps $10.6bn as earnings risk builds

@GoldmanSachs identifies a $9.5bn purchase in Nasdaq non-dealer net positioning, a new high.

With non-dealer positioning elevated in the CFTC data for Oct 20, @GoldmanSachs sees significant futures selling risk if Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet results disappoint.

Funding adds another concern. @GoldmanSachs points to volatile Nasdaq funding costs above those of the S&P, with sector-specific liquidity risk for tech-heavy portfolios.

$AMZN $META $GOOGL

AI token costs fall to ~50% of May peak

LLM token costs fell to ~50% of their May peak, according to @Nordea.

Nordea cites a Stanford study that found smaller models match or outrun larger ones on mainstream tasks. Smaller language models use 3% of the energy of large models, while 49% of business leaders are scaling back AI.

The longer-term risk is a mismatch between demand and capacity.

Nordea warns that a shift toward local AI and smaller models could leave data centres with overcapacity against 5-year project timelines.

Once again, Wall Street is long the left tail of compute, not long the right tail like technologists are.

AI rebounds, 286 names fall

AI is rebounding. Breadth isn't keeping up. @GoldmanSachs' US equities desk put NDX at +1.40%, reclaiming its 100DMA, in its 27 Oct 2026 midday update. SPX ex AI was down 50bps, with 286 names down.

@GoldmanSachs said "AI financing concern" eased after $META and $AVGO funding success. The rebound from oversold conditions was strongest in the AI complex: neoclouds +585bps, optical +5% and inference chips +466bps.

Momentum was +272bps and +8% in 3 sessions after a ~20% drawdown. @GoldmanSachs described flows as stable, with hedge funds favoring tech/financials over consumer/macro. That's a tactical recovery. The desk flagged weaker breadth as a potential source of risk-off pressure.

Yesterday’s selloff was nothing short of historic

Positioning in $USDBRL longs according to the @UBS FX Flow Monitor highlights a sharp reduction by HFs yesterday at a -5σ pace.

That's the largest daily loss for $USDBRL over the past ten years

$GOOGL bouncing right where it is supposed to. Earnings tomorrow

The Santa rally starts here?

Meta $25bn common-stock offering about 5x subscribed

$META's expanded $25bn common-stock offering drew roughly five times demand for available shares. The company is targeting up to $98bn to fund AI spending.

More than half of the allotment went to long-term investors and existing shareholders; the top 15 subscribers received about 70% of the offering.

The deal priced at $625 per share, a 2.7% discount to the close the Friday before the announcement.

The equity sale is part of a broader financing package that includes $12.5bn of mandatory convertible preferred and expected at‑market share placements; if the full $98bn is raised it would be among the largest equity financings on record.

Worst in 100 years

The 10-year rolling return on US Treasuries is now -1%, below the lows of December 1959 and September 1981, the latter of which marked the start of the greatest bond bull market in history:

Massive downside for oil

CTA downside convexity in oil is the definition of asymmetry.

Quite the perfect rounding bottom in $TLT on the daily and potentially setting up for sideways action for a monster cup and handle.

How to trade Brazil on the Monday open:

Short $NU and $EWZS (Brazil small caps)

Long $VALE (they earn in US Dollars so the 10% and service in Reals so the drop in the Real doesn’t impact them directly, it helps them)

Vols will be thru the roof so selling call spreads on any bounce is a better trade than buying puts outright.

Not financial advice.

Never take financial advice from anyone, anywhere at any time.

Election cycles - just stay long after midterms it seems.

On the heels of the Brazilian election, $EWZ is down 17.84%.

If it opens down that much or worse Monday morning it will be the single largest gap down (or up) in $EWZ history.

@AaloAtomics and @basepowerco coded

The anti-data center propaganda is finally getting real.

Pretty remarkable: British Columbia elects Conservative majority government for first time in nearly 100 years.

If you are just now evaluating a software factory you are way the f*ck behind.

This should be your top priority.

At a minimum, every night run the Claude security plugin and @vercel’s deepsec on a dedicated machine with a dedicated user (not root) using the latest frontier model and also create a cascading “ladder” of models with the most advanced at the top of the ladder. This should be a launchd or cron task.

In addition, you need a realtime bot listening for / tracking all CVEs and it immediately provides patches and/or notifies you of a pull request for the patch and any operator actions (think DevOps). @grok @bot is the best at this because the CVEs propagate on X.

Then you can add, more nightly runners for performance, testing, documentation, feature drift, etc.

But security should be at an absolute minimum.

What are your best practices?

The Gamma Rotation Gap is still incredibly wide between $SPY and $TLT

Next week, expect some volatility.

39% of the S&P 500 reports Q3, with sector highs of Real Estate 59%, Telecom 57%, Consumer Discretionary 51%.

It runs straight into the Oct 28 FOMC, so the bulk of Q3 prints and the Fed land in the same week.

FYI, $TLT is up 4.58% for the month of October.