Since October 13, the part of X's ranker that shows your posts to people who don't follow you has been trained on whether they read to the end. X added that line to the changelog in its open-source algorithm repo this week, and @ThePeterMick flagged it on October 28 in a post that has passed 93,000 views.
So a stranger only carries a crypto post forward if they actually finish it. The same changelog says ranking got better at predicting time spent from October 8, and Peter notes that no score weights moved this round.
That changes how an on-chain post should be built. A Hyperliquid funding breakdown that gives away the number in line one and then pads three paragraphs gets opened and abandoned, and Peter's recap of the open weights puts a quick open-and-leave at only 0.3 for the tap. A post that saves the one figure readers can check for themselves until the last line only pays off for readers who reach that line.
His recap also lists bookmarks at zero, a copy-link share at 20, and a second original in the same feed at about 62% of the first. The 62% figure is why I now keep my own originals 90 to 120 minutes apart.
X's changelog dates the read-to-end training for non-follower reach to October 13, about two weeks before it was written down.
About $3 billion of the money taken from Binance overnight is already frozen, and nearly all of it is stablecoins. The BTC and ETH are a different story.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino says Tether froze more than 1.567 billion USDT tied to the hack. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire says Circle froze more than 800 million USDC. That's about $2.37 billion from two issuers that can blacklist an address on their own token contract. @binance put the verified frozen total at around $3 billion as of 08:52 Taipei time, and it hasn't broken down the rest yet.
Now look at what the attacker still holds. Arkham data, as relayed by Wu Blockchain, ties 66 addresses to the hacker with about $5.88 billion in them. The stablecoin side is 1.768 billion USDT and 824.56 million USDC. The same addresses also hold 18,270 BTC, worth about $1.44 billion. The ETH pile is 466,622 coins, worth about $1.06 billion. That's what those addresses hold, not a confirmed loss figure.
The only ETH that got frozen sat on a chain where someone holds an admin key. The @arbitrum Security Council moved 8,425 ETH and 74,559,805 ARB, roughly $30 million, out of the attacker's address into a frozen wallet. Bitcoin and Ethereum mainnet have no council like that, which is also why Bybit's $1.5 billion hack in February 2025, mostly ETH, left issuers with very little to freeze.
Binance says it will cover all losses and has paused all deposits and withdrawals for now. On the numbers above, roughly $2.9 billion isn't frozen, and about $2.5 billion of that is BTC and ETH that no issuer or council can move. That's the part Binance's own balance sheet has to cover.
ICE, the company that owns the NYSE, is putting money into @tradexyz. But if you're a US trader hoping to open a Hyperliquid account tomorrow, today's announcement doesn't give you that.
Here's what trade[XYZ] actually said in its announcement earlier today. The two firms plan a new, dedicated US market with its own exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid, and that market is "subject to CFTC approval." Access is meant to come through participating brokers and platforms, so a US user would go through a regulated intermediary with KYC instead of connecting a wallet. trade[XYZ] hasn't given a launch date, and it says details on products, eligibility and timing will come as approvals progress.
The existing HIP-3 markets on @HyperliquidX keep running in parallel. HIP-3 is the setup that lets outside teams list their own perp markets on Hyperliquid's order book, and trade[XYZ]'s markets there have passed $650 billion in volume in just over a year. Those markets price stocks, indices and commodities around the clock, including the hours when traditional venues are closed.
So the deal splits the product in two. Non-US traders keep the permissionless version, and US traders get a brokered version that ICE's clearing sits behind. Planned contracts cover equities, indices, commodities, FX and crypto, but none of them can list in the US until the CFTC signs off.
Pumpfun perps: same Hyperliquid order book, about twice the taker fee
Pumpfun's new perps fill on the same Hyperliquid order book, but a taker round trip through the app can cost about twice as much: $19 on $10,000 notional versus $9 going direct. That's because Pumpfun adds a builder fee on top of Hyperliquid's own. Its fees page says up to 0.05% of notional on every order you submit, whether it opens, adds to or closes a position. Hyperliquid's base taker rate is 0.045%, so at the full builder fee one taker fill through Pumpfun comes to 0.095%, or 0.19% for a round trip. The pitch is simple: long or short crypto, stocks and commodities straight from a USDC balance, no bridging, with up to 40x on $BTC . Leverage is where the fee line bites. A $10,000 BTC position at 40x needs $250 of margin. Open and close it as a taker on Hyperliquid directly and you pay $9, or 3.6% of that margin. Do the same in the Pumpfun app and it's $19, or 7.6%, before funding. Resting limit orders don't escape it. Hyperliquid's base maker fee is 0.015%, so the builder fee takes a maker fill to 0.065%, more than four times the direct rate. Moving money in costs extra too. Pumpfun lists up to 0.25% on each transfer to or from Hyperliquid through its in-app bridge, on top of the bridge operator's own fee. A $250 deposit and withdrawal can run $1.25 before anything trades. On Hyperliquid's base tier, a $10,000 taker round trip costs $9 direct and up to $19 through Pumpfun, and both fills land on the same order book.
Robinhood now earns more from prediction bets than from crypto trading
Robinhood booked $173M from prediction-market contracts in Q3 and only $120M from crypto trading, so yes/no bets now earn it more than buying and selling coins does. The crypto line fell 55% from a year earlier. @RobinhoodApp reported $50B of crypto volume for the quarter, down 38%. Meanwhile customers traded 16.4B event contracts, and each one pays out $1 if it's right. The per-dollar math is why prediction markets matter so much to them. $173M over 16.4B contracts is about 1 cent of revenue per contract. If you put $100 into contracts priced at 50 cents, you're holding 200 of them, which is roughly $2 for Robinhood. Crypto brought in about 0.24% of volume, so the same $100 of spot earns it around 24 cents. That 0.24% blends in volume from its Bitstamp exchange, so the rate on the app alone is higher than that. Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma told @CNBC that contracts on crypto price moves did well. REX Financial research head Bill Birmingham told @Reuters these look like the same active traders finding a second outlet. At those averages, a trader who swaps a spot buy for a bet on $BTC 's direction pays Robinhood about 8 times more per dollar.
Robinhood Chain Lost 79% of Its Trading. Why Is $1.1 Billion Still There?
Robinhood Chain's daily DEX volume has dropped 79% from its peak of $3.67 billion on September 4. Yet the $1.13 billion parked on the chain has barely moved. Robinhood reports third-quarter results after the US close today, October 27. Before that, I pulled the numbers myself from DefiLlama, the Morpho API, Merkl's reward data and the chain's own RPC to see what's actually holding that money in place. The short version is that most of it isn't trading capital and it isn't stock-token credit either. About $323 million sits in a single lending market where roughly a hundred wallets borrow USDG against USDe at an average 89% loan-to-value, and two reward campaigns pay them and their lenders about $96,000 a day to stay. All figures below come from a snapshot taken around 19:45 Taipei time (11:45 UTC) on October 27 unless I say otherwise. Trading on Robinhood Chain has shrunk in six of the last seven weeks Robinhood Chain is the Ethereum layer-2 network that @RobinhoodCrypto took to public mainnet on July 1, built on Arbitrum's stack and pitched as a home for tokenized stocks and DeFi. Its decentralized exchanges had a huge late summer. DefiLlama's chain page shows daily DEX volume topping out at $3.67 billion on September 4, and the week of August 31 to September 6 cleared $18.2 billion. Cumulative volume passed $100 billion on October 9 and now stands near $121.9 billion. Since that week the curve has gone one way with a single pause. Weekly volume fell to $14.1 billion and then $11.0 billion. It kept sliding to $6.4 billion in the week of October 5, ticked up once, and dropped to $5.4 billion for the week of October 19 to 25. The last 30 days produced $29.7 billion of DEX volume. That's 46.6% less than the 30 days before. On October 26 the chain did $758 million, about a fifth of the peak day. Fees followed the same path. The chain's apps earned $101.8 million in fees over the last 30 days. Uniswap's V4 exchange alone took about $37.9 million of that. A launchpad called Pons came second with about $20.7 million. That's still real money, but it's a trading economy that has cooled for two months. Lending, not trading, holds most of the chain's money Total value locked tells a different story. TVL, the dollar value of assets deposited in a chain's apps, went from $174 million in mid-July to $529 million a month later. It reached $930 million by mid-September and a record $1.153 billion on October 22. It's at $1.128 billion today, 2% below that high, while trading volume sits roughly 80% below its own high. The split by app explains why the two lines don't move together. Morpho Blue, the lending protocol run by @Morpho, accounts for $617.5 million, or 55% of the chain's TVL. Uniswap V4 holds $174.7 million and the perps venue Lighter holds $116.4 million. DefiLlama also lists the Steakhouse vault at $544.3 million, but that vault deposits into Morpho, so adding the two would count the same dollars twice. Stablecoins tell the same story from another angle. The chain's stablecoin supply is $1.082 billion, almost unchanged from $1.069 billion on September 20, even as weekly trading volume roughly halved over the same stretch. USDG, the Global Dollar stablecoin that Robinhood's products use, makes up $679 million of it, and Ethena's USDe makes up $369 million. Money that doesn't leave when trading slows usually has another reason to stay, and on this chain that reason is lending yield. One stablecoin market carries two-thirds of all borrowing Morpho works as a set of isolated markets. Each one pairs a single collateral token with a single loan token, a fixed liquidation threshold called LLTV (the loan-to-value ratio at which a position can be liquidated), and one price oracle. On Robinhood Chain the Morpho API shows $546.1 million supplied and $489.5 million borrowed across all markets. The biggest market by far lends USDG against USDe collateral with a 91.5% LLTV. It has $360.5 million of USDG supplied and $323.4 million borrowed, so 89.7% of the lendable USDG is out on loan. Borrowers have posted $363.1 million of USDe as collateral. Lenders earn 3.81% a year and borrowers pay 4.25%. That one market is 66% of all Morpho borrowing on the chain, and it was created on June 9, three weeks before the public mainnet opened. The next three markets also lend USDG against other dollar tokens. Borrowers owe $122.2 million against syrupUSDG, $30.1 million against mGLO and $11.0 million against spUSDG. The stock-token markets get most of the headlines. Morpho and Robinhood made Robinhood Stock Tokens usable as collateral on October 22, with NVDA and SPCX at a 62.5% LLTV and SPY at 77%. Five days in, the API shows about $3.9 million of stock tokens posted and about $1.7 million borrowed against them. NVDA leads with $1.41 million of collateral, and borrowing rates on the four largest stock markets run from 24% to 35% a year. Stock-token loans are about 0.35% of the chain's Morpho borrowing today, which is a fair start for five days but nowhere near what's holding the TVL up. About a hundred wallets run that market at 89% loan-to-value Who's on each side of the USDe market matters more than the market's size. On the supply side, 99.9% of the $360.5 million comes from a single address, the market adapter of the Steakhouse USDG vault run by @SteakhouseFi. That vault holds $544.7 million in total, so about two-thirds of it is lent into this one market. The vault also carries a Merkl reward campaign labeled "Robinhood Users Only," and deposits for that campaign are made through the Robinhood app. The borrowing side is much narrower. The API lists 991 positions in the market, but only 104 of them owe more than $1, and the rest are empty or leftover dust. The largest borrower owes $78.8 million against $88.6 million of USDe, which is 24.4% of all the debt in the market. The top five hold 66.0% of the debt and the top ten hold 88.5%. The four largest are plain wallets rather than smart contracts, since an RPC check returns no contract code at those addresses. The leverage is tight. Weighted by debt, the average borrower sits at 89.2% loan-to-value against the 91.5% liquidation line. About 84% of the debt sits in positions at 88% LTV or higher. More than a quarter of it, 27%, is at 90% or higher. For the largest borrower, USDe would need to be priced about 2.8% below USDG before the position became liquidatable. For the debt-weighted average, the gap is about 2.5%. Two reward campaigns turn a thin spread into double-digit returns Borrowing at 4.25% against a stablecoin that pays nothing on its own wouldn't make sense without outside money. USDe itself doesn't earn yield; only staked USDe does. The extra money comes from Merkl, a service that distributes reward campaigns on behalf of protocols and token issuers. The first campaign pays people who post USDe as collateral in this market. It's capped at 5% a year on the collateral's value, which works out to about $49,700 a day on $363.1 million, paid in USDe. Its funder, a single address, has topped it up in weekly rounds since early July, starting at 160,000 USDe a week. For three straight weeks the round was 341,609 USDe. The round running from October 23 to October 30 is 459,589 USDe, 34.5% larger. The campaign page says "No borrowing required," but positions that post collateral and borrow less than $1 hold only about $111,000 in total. The second campaign pays the lenders. Depositors in the Steakhouse USDG vault earn 3.20% a year on top in steakUSDG, about $46,000 a day on the $526.1 million that Merkl counts. That campaign was funded with 100 million steakUSDG for July 1, 2026 to July 1, 2027, plus a second 15-million round. Add the vault's own 3.80% net yield and a depositor sees about 7.0%, which matches the "estimated 7% APY" Robinhood quoted for its Robinhood Earn lending product at launch. The borrower math is simple once the rewards are in. Take $100 of USDe posted at 89% LTV. The borrower owes $89 of USDG at 4.25%, which costs about $3.78 a year. The 5% reward on the collateral pays $5.00 a year. That leaves about $1.22 on roughly $11 of the borrower's own money, close to 11% a year before swap costs and before the borrow rate moves. Getting to 89% LTV usually means looping, which is swapping the borrowed USDG back into USDe and posting it again several times. I didn't trace every wallet's swaps, but that's the standard way a small group of wallets ends up carrying this much debt. Lenders carry the depeg risk, and a 16-hour timer decides when it lands The oracle is the part I'd want any USDG depositor to understand. I read it straight from the chain. The market's oracle is a clone of Steakhouse's MetaOracleDeviationTimelock, a design that switches between two price sources. The primary source returns a fixed price of exactly 1 USDe per USDG. The backup reads a feed labeled "USDE / USD," which showed $0.9996 at my snapshot. The switch isn't automatic. The backup only takes over if the two prices differ by more than 0.5%, someone calls the contract's challenge function, and the gap is still there after 57,600 seconds, which is 16 hours. Switching back to the fixed price needs another 24 hours of prices staying close. Until a challenge clears, the market values USDe at $1 no matter where it trades. There's a good reason for this design, and October 10, 2025 shows it. During that crash USDe printed as low as $0.65 on Binance, whose own order book fed its oracle, while Curve's pools stayed within about 0.3% of a dollar. Binance later compensated users whose USDe collateral was liquidated between 21:36 and 22:16 UTC. A fixed-price oracle with a 16-hour challenge window would've ignored that 40-minute wick completely, and @ethena founder Guy Young said at the time that money markets pricing USDe off the deepest liquidity wouldn't have liquidated anyone. The cost shows up in a slower, real depeg. If USDe traded 3% below a dollar for a full day, borrowers in this market couldn't be liquidated for at least 16 hours, and after the switch most of the debt would sit above the 91.5% line at once. Liquidators would then have to sell a large amount of USDe into a market that's already weak. Any shortfall from that would land on the suppliers, and 99.9% of the supply comes from the vault that Robinhood users deposit into. Robinhood described the Earn product's insurance as covering losses from cyber or smart-contract exploits, and a price depeg isn't that. The more ordinary risk is that the rewards change. Without the 5% collateral reward, the same $100 position earns nothing and still owes $3.78 a year, so the loop flips to a loss. If borrowers unwind, the vault's lending income from its largest market goes with them. Withdrawals can also bunch up. The vault shows $40.0 million of idle liquidity, 7.4% of its assets, and the market itself is 89.7% lent out. A three-step check works on any chain's TVL record None of this needs a paid tool, and the same steps work on any chain that's announcing a TVL record. First, open the chain's TVL page and the DEX volume page side by side. If TVL keeps climbing while volume falls, the money is staying for a reason other than trading. Second, open the lending protocol's market list and sort by borrowed amount. If one market holds most of the debt, check how many positions actually borrow, what share the top ten hold and how close the weighted LTV sits to the LLTV. Third, look up the market's oracle address and read it. A fixed price behind a challenge timer is a reasonable design for stablecoin pairs, but it tells you who carries a slow depeg. Then check the reward pages for the same market, because a campaign that pays more than the borrow rate is often the reason the market exists in its current size. On Robinhood Chain, the market to start with is 0xc845…cddd6, and its oracle address is 0xE648…055f. The record TVL measures paid stablecoin carry more than trading Put together, the numbers don't say Robinhood Chain is empty. DEX users still cleared $5.4 billion of volume last week, and the stock-token loans are a five-day-old product that's already being used. What the numbers do show is that the chain's TVL mostly measures how much stablecoin carry two reward budgets hold in place, and much less how much trading or stock-token credit the chain has attracted. Any mention of that record on today's earnings call would mostly be describing the USDe market. The two campaigns pay about $96,000 a day together, close to $35 million a year at today's rates, against about $1.7 million of stock-token borrowing. The current USDe round of 459,589 USDe ends at 00:00 UTC on October 30.