Si Crypto Researcher

My Bitcoin view is changing this Sunday, and the reason is market psychology. I've spent years studying how crowd sentiment changes at different price levels, and some of my biggest lessons in crypto have come from recognizing when the majority becomes too confident in one direction.
Let's go back to $120K–$122K. Bitcoin was trading around $115K–$122K, and everyone was bullish. People were calling for $130K, $150K, and even $1 million Bitcoin. Big-profile accounts were also pushing extremely bullish expectations. But I was looking at the other side. While the crowd was expecting another massive rally, I warned that BTC could fall below $100K and eventually extended my downside targets toward $45K. I shared these views publicly on X and Telegram. When Bitcoin dropped below $100K, my bearish thesis continued to play out.
Then BTC reached $60K, and this is where I believe I made a mistake. The same market that had been expecting $150K was now overwhelmingly bearish. Almost everyone was calling for $45K or even lower, and I was also waiting for $45K. Global tensions were adding to the fear, and I remained focused on my downside target. But when I saw how strongly bearish the crowd had become, I should have reconsidered my approach and started accumulating spot. I didn't, and Bitcoin recovered toward $80K. That experience taught me something important: **being right about the downside doesn't mean you should keep expecting lower prices after market psychology has completely changed.** Waiting for one exact target can make you miss a major recovery.
Now look at the situation around $80K. Once again, the conversation is dominated by lower targets: $75K, $70K, $60K, and even below $50K. Open X and look at the sentiment yourself. Many people are preparing for another crash and waiting for much cheaper Bitcoin. This is precisely why I'm questioning the crowd's expectations again. When BTC was near $120K, extreme optimism made me look for downside. When BTC reached $60K, extreme pessimism should have made me consider buying. Now, with bearish expectations building again around $80K, I'm not willing to blindly follow the same crowd and wait for $60K or $45K. Market makers and larger participants can benefit when traders become positioned on one side, and a sharp reversal can trap those who are convinced the market can only move lower. This doesn't mean the market always moves opposite to the crowd, but ignoring crowd psychology can be an expensive mistake.
**My plan is changing accordingly.** I'm starting to accumulate BTC spot around $80K, with additional buying zones at $75K, $72K, and $70K. I have repeatedly highlighted $80K–$82K as an important area, and Bitcoin's repeated lower wicks and recoveries make the daily and weekly candle closes especially important to watch. I'm also holding a long position in my Premium portfolio. My current expectation is that the downside may be limited to the $72K–$70K area, where I'm prepared to add a larger spot position if the market reaches those levels. I can't guarantee that Bitcoin won't fall further, but I don't want to sit on the sidelines again while waiting for a perfect bottom.
The biggest difference between my thinking and the crowd's thinking right now is simple: **when everyone was expecting higher prices at $120K, I was looking lower. Now that everyone is expecting lower prices at $80K, I'm preparing for a recovery.** I'm not turning bullish just because the price has dropped. I'm turning bullish because the current crowd psychology reminds me of the kind of environment where traders can become trapped by their own expectations. This time, I'm staying active, building my spot position gradually, and keeping capital available for lower entries rather than repeating my mistake at $60K. I believe the market could be preparing to surprise the same people who are once again convinced that Bitcoin must go lower. Let's see whether the daily and weekly closes confirm my view.
$BTC