CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin climbed to the $64K level following a strong reaction from its monthly open—a key institutional benchmark. Analyzing major exchange data reveals the underlying mechanics behind this swift move on low volume.
Funding Rates & Position Divergence
At the monthly open, funding rates across primary exchanges diverged noticeably:
• Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Deribit: Funding rates slipped into negative territory toward -0.00, signaling a clear dominance of short positions.
• HTX: Maintained a positive funding rate of 0.05, indicating users were predominantly positioned long.
The Mechanism Behind the Rally
As price consolidated around the $62.7K monthly open support, key high-volume exchanges like Binance shifted negative. This crowded short positioning served as the primary catalyst, fueling a short squeeze that drove prices higher.
Current Outlook & Risks
• Current Funding Dynamics: Funding rates on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Deribit are drifting back toward negative territory from neutral levels. This environment could continue triggering short-term upward pumps.
• Volume & Volatility Risk: The move lacks solid spot volume backing. Low market liquidity amplifies volatility, making price swings sharper.
• Liquidity Illusion: Recent sharp moves in either direction resemble short-term liquidity sweeps rather than a sustainable organic trend.
Key Resistance: The $65K level continues to act as strong resistance. Caution is warranted beneath this zone in a low-volume environment.
Written by BorisD

Bitcoin’s 1-year Net Realized Profit/Loss is currently below zero, with the latest reading near -354K BTC.
This means that, over the past 365 days, realized losses have exceeded realized profits in BTC terms.
For context, previous troughs on this metric were much deeper: around -3.7M BTC in 2015, -4.0M BTC in 2019, and -4.3M BTC in 2023.
In terms of depth, the current negative reading is still far smaller than those historical troughs.
The signal is cautionary, but not capitulation-level by itself.
Key takeaway:
BTC is now in net realized loss territory on the 1-year sum. Realized loss stress is present, but the current depth remains far below prior troughs, so this metric alone does not confirm capitulation-level conditions.
Written by Zizcrypto

The data
The Coinbase Premium Index is the gap between bitcoin's (BTC) price on Coinbase and on Binance, in percent. Figures close August 16, 2026.
- 103 straight days below zero, from May 6: the longest since the series starts in 2017
- Previous longest: 84 days, late 2018
- Still running, so 103 is a minimum and can only rise
- Strictly counted, 103 is the record. Allow one positive close and 2026 still leads, 107 to 88
Half the streak is the peg
Coinbase prices in dollars, Binance in USDT, Tether's token designed to hold at one dollar. When USDT drifts, the gap moves on its own, no buyer behind it.
Corrected for that drift, across the first 97 days, through August 10:
- 48 days stay below zero. 49 do not
- The median close turns positive, from -0.090% to +0.0002%
- The longest unbroken run is 8 days, June 2 to 9
Half the duration is the stablecoin, not buyers. The gap nearly vanishes.
What the record does not tell you
Some demand weakness is real. Fund holdings, an independent gauge of BTC held by investment funds, fell 8.5% from May 6 to August 7.
But the tie to price is fragile. Measured from the first day of a negative episode, the median 90-day return is -21.5%, against +3.1% on random days. Measured from the day it ends, +19.1%. Define the episode as 15 days instead of 30 and the effect disappears.
A result that holds at one length and breaks at another is about the choice of length, not the market.
The record is real. The question is how much is the buyer, and how much is the stablecoin.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

Binance User Deposit Address has declined significantly after reaching a high in July and is now continuing to cool off.
This suggests that $BTC deposit activity on Binance is lower than in the previous period, but it is not enough to conclude that selling pressure is weakening or that supply is being absorbed.
At present, the data mainly indicates that deposit activity has decreased, while actual $BTC transfer volume to the exchange needs to be considered to better assess capital flows and potential selling pressure.
Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin Exchange Inflow CDD data on Binance shows a clear decline in the movement of long-held coins into the platform. The indicator has fallen to around 155, its lowest level since last May. This decline follows strong increases in late May and early June, when the reading repeatedly exceeded 500 and even surpassed 1,000.
The current downturn suggests a relative decrease in the movement of older coins to Binance, meaning that Bitcoin inflows to the platform are now less associated with coins that have remained dormant for extended periods. This contrasts sharply with the activity seen in May, when the indicator recorded significant increases alongside larger movements of older coins.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading near $63,000, while the indicator remains relatively low. This situation may reduce the likelihood of significant selling pressure resulting from large volumes of older coins moving to the platform. However, it does not, in itself, constitute a definitive bullish signal.
However, if the indicator begins to rise again significantly, especially alongside weakness in Bitcoin’s price, this could indicate a return of activity among long-term holders and an increased likelihood of selling pressure in the market.
Written by Arab Chain

We are seeing less profit-taking across both short-term and long-term holders.
Short-term holder (STH) SOPR has moved back to around 1, while Long-term holder (LTH) SOPR remains below 1. When BTC was trading at higher levels earlier this year, both metrics were also much higher.
So, there is less profit being realized across both groups compared with earlier this year.
Now, it is worth watching both metrics closely. If they start moving back above 1 while BTC holds its current range, we should get a clearer sense of whether profit-taking pressure is picking up again.
Written by nocoffeenobrain

Bitcoin Holds Above $60K as Selling Pressure Eases, But Demand Remains Soft
Bitcoin is trading around $63.3K to $63.6K after testing the $62K to $65K range. While the structure remains intact above $60K, demand is still relatively weak.
Short term holders have remained underwater for 98 consecutive days, with an average cost basis near $67.3K and unrealized losses of roughly 6%. However, STH SOPR at 0.996 suggests losses are being realized close to break even, with no signs of deep capitulation.
Exchange selling pressure has also eased. Net inflows fell from +3,507 BTC on August 14 to roughly +29 to +680 BTC in subsequent readings. This decline suggests immediate sell side pressure is moderating.
Derivatives positioning has cooled, with funding rates declining toward 0.00465% to 0.01% and open interest slipping modestly. Leverage has therefore reduced without triggering a major flush.
The main weakness remains spot demand. Recent ETF flows have turned negative, with one weekly window recording approximately $385M in outflows. Institutional demand remains significant, but momentum has weakened.
For now, the market favors continued consolidation around $60K to $65K. A sustained move above this range would require stronger spot demand, ETF inflows and volume.
A break below $60K alongside rising exchange inflows would weaken the structure and increase downside risk toward $50K.
Selling pressure is cooling, but demand still needs to return.
Written by theophiluspep

After a brief negative period (February–May 2026), funding rates have returned to 2026 high levels, reaching 20-month values.
The derivatives market sentiment is positive within the current BTC price range, indicating that most traders are taking long positions.
Written by G a a h

Bitcoin derivatives positioning is rebuilding across major exchanges .
On Binance, Bitcoin’s 30-day open interest change recovered to +6,380 BTC on August 15, after falling to -14,280 BTC on July 6.
That represents a swing of roughly 20,660 BTC from the July low. However, the current level remains well below Binance’s June 10 peak of approximately +17,000 BTC, suggesting leverage has returned without yet reaching the intensity seen earlier in the summer.
The recovery is also visible across other major exchanges.
Bybit reached +5,900 BTC on August 15, its highest reading since January 2026, while OKX recorded approximately +1,600 BTC. Gate.io followed with +3,300 BTC on August 16.
Together, the data points to a broader shift from July’s position contraction toward renewed leverage and position building across the Bitcoin derivatives market.
Open interest alone does not indicate whether the new exposure is predominantly long or short, making funding rates, order-flow data and liquidation positioning increasingly important for determining which side of the market is becoming more crowded.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin’s 30-day average Taker Buy Volume on Binance has fallen toward $3.3 billion, revisiting a zone previously observed around the late-2020 reset, the 2022 cycle bottom, and the 2023 consolidation.
What stands out is the divergence between price and participation. Bitcoin is trading near $63,500, yet aggressive market-buying activity has contracted to levels recorded when BTC traded at substantially lower prices. Beneath price, this points to fading speculative demand, reduced urgency among buyers, and a broader loss of market conviction.
Historically, similar contractions have appeared during periods of capitulation or accumulation and have often preceded a recovery in demand. However, low Taker Buy Volume is a condition, not a reversal signal. It shows that aggressive buyers have withdrawn, but it does not prove that selling pressure has been fully absorbed.
A more credible bottoming signal would require Bitcoin to stabilize while Taker Buy Volume begins to recover. Conversely, continued price weakness alongside persistently depressed volume would indicate an ongoing demand vacuum.
The current reading therefore points to an advanced reset in market participation, not a confirmed bottom: the market may be approaching seller exhaustion, yet buyers have not returned with enough force to establish control.
Written by MorenoDV_

XRP closed at $0.993 on August 16, testing the lower bound of its six-month range. Beneath this weak price action, the relationship between speculative positioning and spot liquidity is shifting.
A clear divergence is forming between derivatives growth and collapsing exchange flows. Open Interest (OI) climbed from 366M on August 4 to 461M on August 16 (+10% vs. the 30-day baseline), with the leverage ratio moving from 0.141 to 0.176. This suggests speculative traders are actively building positions.
However, this leverage buildup occurs in an increasingly illiquid spot market. Binance inflows and outflows plummeted 95–98% against their 90-day baselines, and deposit addresses fell 96%. With trading volume down 17% week-over-week, rising OI lacks the support of underlying capital rotation.
Funding rates remain slightly negative (-0.003 to -0.006) alongside this rising OI and falling price, suggesting a short bias. Yet, short liquidations are exceptionally low ($325 on Aug 16), indicating shorts remain untested, while long liquidations persist without cascading. Meanwhile, network utility stays resilient, with daily transactions near 2M (+43% vs. the quarterly baseline).
Taken together: speculative short positioning is increasing while spot exchange liquidity has nearly vanished. Historically, rising leverage in an illiquid spot market creates conditions susceptible to sudden volatility. This setup may provide the fuel for a mean-reversion squeeze if support holds, or accelerate a flush if the lack of spot bids persists.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s market structure is beginning to change. Three on-chain indicators suggest that BTC supply is returning to exchanges while spot demand remains too weak to absorb it.
First, Binance’s Whale Inflow Ratio has surged, briefly approaching 0.60. This means large transactions now account for a significant share of BTC flowing into Binance. Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of BTC available for trading or hedging.
Second, Bitcoin exchange reserves have reversed higher. After falling for much of 2025 and early 2026, reserves bottomed near 2.67M BTC in May and have recovered to roughly 2.73M BTC. The long-running trend of BTC leaving exchanges may therefore be weakening.
Third, 90-day Spot Taker CVD has shifted from Buy Dominant to Neutral. Unlike April and May, aggressive spot buyers are no longer clearly dominating.
The key issue is not simply whether whales are selling. It is whether enough spot demand exists to absorb the BTC returning to exchanges. If whale inflows and reserves remain elevated while Spot Taker CVD turns Sell Dominant, downside pressure could intensify.
Written by XWIN Japan

The idea of catching the absolute bottom is wrong.
When a bear market persists, there comes a point where the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders starts to decline.
This reflects the process of high-cost holders realizing losses and transferring coins to stronger hands.
Accumulating gradually during this phase tends to be advantageous over the long term.
The window of opportunity lasts longer than most people expect. Yet this is precisely when the majority leave the market.
Written by Crypto Dan

XRP derivatives activity on Binance has shifted sharply in August, with open interest expanding even as both perpetual and spot order flow remain dominated by sellers.
Binance XRP open interest rose from roughly $181 million on August 3 to $232.7 million on August 17, an increase of about 28.6% in two weeks and the highest level recorded since June 2026.
The change becomes more significant when viewed through the 7-day open interest trend.
Binance’s XRP open interest change moved from approximately -$40 million on July 29 to +$38.9 million on August 17, signaling a transition from position contraction and unwinding in late July to renewed position building in August.
At the same time, Binance Perpetual CVD fell to -$463.2 million, showing that aggressive sell-side execution continued while open interest expanded.
The combination of rising open interest and declining perpetual CVD is consistent with new bearish positions being added, rather than the move being driven only by existing longs closing.
Selling pressure is also visible outside the derivatives market. All-CEX Estimated Spot CVD declined from about +$153 million on August 3 to -$231.8 million by August 17, representing a swing of nearly $385 million toward net aggressive selling.
This combination suggests that bearish positioning has strengthened across multiple layers of the market.
As fresh short positions accumulate alongside rising open interest, the imbalance can place increasing downward pressure on perpetual funding rates and potentially push them into negative territory if short-side demand becomes sufficiently dominant.
While negative funding would not guarantee an immediate reversal, increasingly crowded short positioning could create the conditions for a short squeeze.
If XRP experiences a sudden rebound or buying pressure returns, leveraged short positions may be forced to close, potentially accelerating upside volatility as elevated open interest unwinds.
Written by Amr Taha

Binance BTC Taker Imbalance % data shows continued but slight selling pressure, with the indicator registering around -0.0127%. Executed sell orders totaled approximately $797.8 million, compared with around $777.8 million in buy orders, a difference of nearly $20 million in favor of sellers. However, the gap remains small relative to total trading volume, indicating that the current selling pressure is not strong enough to signal a widespread market exit.
Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, making the current reading important for assessing short-term momentum. Continued selling pressure could limit the price’s ability to recover to higher levels, particularly if it coincides with rising selling volumes in the coming sessions. Conversely, a narrowing gap between buy and sell volumes could help the price stabilize, even without the indicator turning clearly positive.
The data suggests that the market remains relatively balanced, although the current balance is slightly tilted toward sellers. Therefore, if this pressure persists without a significant increase, Bitcoin may remain within a volatile trading range. However, a widening gap in favor of sellers could increase the likelihood of another price correction, while a return of buyers with larger volumes could ease the pressure and support a renewed upward momentum.
Written by Arab Chain

UNI accumulation on Binance, Uniswap's native token, has never been this strong in five years as it is during the current dip.
This chart tracks the strength of that accumulation through the daily outflows generated by the largest transactions on Binance.
It was notably when UNI's price recently approached $3 that the average outflow from the ten largest daily transactions on Binance hit record highs.
For reference, the token had peaked above $43 in 2021; it now shows a drawdown of over 93%, currently trading around $3.
Over this period, we recorded a monthly average of 7,300 UNI leaving Binance daily via this top 10 of transactions, a five-year record.
That average remains elevated today, with 5,600 UNI accumulated daily by this same group of transactions.
Despite a tough environment for altcoins, some are still drawing attention, particularly those being accumulated most aggressively by whales.
Written by Darkfost

Two readings turned at the same time this week, and they do not usually turn together.
The first is momentum. The volatility-adjusted version, the Sharpe-like ratio, just crossed below its base line. This is the version I pay attention to because raw 30-day momentum will happily print a big number on a move that was mostly noise. Dividing by realized volatility asks a harder question: was the move worth the risk it took to get it? Right now the answer flipped to no. Earlier this year that same line was running above +2. It has been giving that back in steps ever since, and it is now on the wrong side of zero.
The second is the risk oscillator, measured against a composite of the S&P 500, gold, crude and the dollar. It has climbed back to the zero line. That level has mattered. Marked on the chart are the three previous times it arrived here, and each one was followed by a meaningful leg down in price rather than a bounce. Capital was rotating out of bitcoin and into the rest of that basket each time.
So one indicator says the trend is no longer paying, and the other says the macro bid is moving somewhere else. Individually, neither is a verdict. Together they describe a market with no support from either side of the book.
The honest limits. Three prior instances is a small sample, and small samples flatter whoever is reading them. The oscillator sitting at zero is a boundary, not a confirmation, and boundaries get rejected as often as they get broken. I have written here before about compression building in realized volatility, and compression is not directional. It stores energy without telling you which way it discharges.
What I will say is that the release, whenever it comes, is now arriving into worse conditions than it would have a month ago. Is that telling us the resolution is down? Maybe. I am watching both of these closely.
Written by RugaResearch

Today’s BTC on-chain data shows risk cooling, but not yet a clear shift to strong buy-side dominance.
Exchange Netflow dropped from +3,507 BTC on Aug 14 to just +29 BTC today, signaling a sharp reduction in immediate sell-side pressure.
Funding Rate fell from 0.0228 to 0.00465, while Open Interest eased from about $23.11B to $22.94B. Long-side overheating is clearly cooling, although leverage has not fully reset.
The Exchange Stablecoins Ratio remains slightly above its 30-day average, so liquidity conditions should still be watched alongside Netflow and derivatives positioning.
The market is moving toward neutral rather than giving a strong buy signal. Falling inflows and normalized funding are constructive, but renewed increases in Netflow, Funding, and OI would weaken this risk-reduction scenario.
Overall, sell pressure is easing and leverage is cooling. However, OI remains relatively elevated. The next confirmation would be Netflow turning negative while Funding stays controlled.
Tomorrow, I’ll watch for exchange outflows, stable Funding, and whether OI starts building again.
Written by CoinNiel

Next week could be a key test for Bitcoin as three macro events converge: U.S. TIC data, the July FOMC minutes, and Japan’s CPI.
TIC data will show whether foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities is weakening. Softer demand could push Treasury yields higher and tighten financial conditions, a headwind for Bitcoin.
The FOMC minutes may reveal how broad inflation concerns were. A hawkish tone could lift U.S. yields and the dollar, while stronger concern about growth or labor weakness could support risk assets.
Japan’s CPI may be the biggest volatility trigger. A hotter-than-expected print could strengthen expectations for another BOJ rate hike, push the yen higher, and accelerate a reversal of yen-funded carry trades.
On-chain data adds another layer. The LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR ratio is near 0.96, suggesting no clear dominance of long-term-holder profit-taking. The key is whether a macro shock causes short-term holders to realize losses. If STH-SOPR falls below 1 while BTC exchange inflows rise, selling pressure could intensify.
The most bearish mix would be weaker Treasury demand, hawkish FOMC minutes, hot Japan CPI, and deteriorating short-term-holder behavior. Watch U.S. yields, USD/JPY, STH-SOPR, and exchange flows—not Bitcoin’s price alone.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitget Wallet recently joined the “JPYC × XWIN Early Morning Space” to discuss self-custody wallets and their role in Web3.
Space:
https://x.com/FumihiroArasawa/status/2088370315210768465?s=20
Ethereum active addresses remain high, with sharp increases again in 2026. Better wallet UX may be one contributor: social login, multichain support and integrated swaps are lowering barriers to onchain participation.
Self-custody wallets were once mainly tools for holding crypto while users controlled their own keys. Today, competition is shifting toward interfaces combining trading, DeFi, transfers, payments and asset management.
MetaMask remains strong in Ethereum and dApp access, while Trust Wallet and Phantom emphasize multichain usability. OKX Wallet and Bitget Wallet are expanding into swaps, DeFi and payments. Bitget Wallet has an advantage in combining multichain access with real-world payment functions.
Japan is also developing its own model. HashPort Wallet focuses on consumers and stablecoin payments, JPYC Gateway on corporate transfers and internal controls, and MyNumber Wallet on digital identity and payments.
The next wallet race will not be about storage alone. Wallets are evolving into “financial operating systems” connecting onchain assets with everyday finance.
Written by XWIN Japan