CRYPTO MECHANIC

Last month I made a post saying that V-shaped recoveries are very rare in the market.
Whenever a market or an asset comes out of a proper bear market, it usually spends some time in a range.

You can call it building a base, accumulation, consolidation, whatever you want.

Bitcoin had almost a 10-month bear market. Now BTC has come out of that bear market and shifted its structure.
And you might remember I said that a structure shift does NOT mean price is just going to take off from there.

A structure shift simply means the trend has changed.
And this is usually the phase where people start getting frustrated.

“Why is BTC not going up?”

But look at what BTC has already done
BTC went from around $58K to almost $87K–$88K.
That’s already roughly a 50% move.

So if you are buying now expecting BTC to just continue straight up from here, just understand that you are late.

BTC is probably going to spend some time around these levels.
Maybe slightly lower, maybe slightly higher. It could take a few weeks.

And this is where people start making mistakes.
They take a position, get bored, exit.
Take another position, get frustrated, exit again.

Some will eventually sell everything because “BTC is not doing anything.”

But this is a normal phase.

It has happened with BTC before and it can happen again.
Just because BTC has shifted its structure doesn’t mean this phase disappears.

I don't expect a V-shaped recovery straight into all-time highs.
It can still happen.

But BTC has just come out of a proper bear market.
That’s why I expect BTC to spend some time here.

It will tease you.
It will test your patience.

And if you are not in the market, this is the time to slowly DCA into different price zones and prepare yourself for the next few months.

Not the next few days.

Because the shorter your timeframe is, and the more you expect from the market in a short period of time, the harder it becomes to make money.

I don't think the market is going anywhere anytime soon.

This is the phase where your patience will be tested.

Choptober

A lot of people might be confused like:

“If BTC goes below $82,800, but Crypto Mechanic is still saying it will be fine because $82,800 isn’t a structurally important zone… how does that make sense?”

There are two things you need to understand here.

Good technical analysis depends on how you look at the market and what your edge is, because every chart can have different edges.

As I’ve said before, $82,800 is not a structural level. It’s a breakout level.
And structural levels and breakout levels are two completely different things.

Bitcoin’s breakout level is around $82,800, while its structure is something different.

For example, when price makes higher highs and higher lows, those become structural points.
Right now, Bitcoin’s important structural higher low is around $75,000, while $82,800 is the breakout point.

Market trends depend on structure. They don’t depend on a breakout or a fakeout.

Yes, a breakout gives you a higher high, but when it comes to the overall trend, the higher lows are what matter more.

So these are two different things and two different edges:

Breakout point - $82,800
Structural point - ~$75,000

When you’re looking at the trend, you look at the structure.
When you’re looking at strength, you look at breakouts.
And when you’re looking at weakness, you look at fakeouts.

This is why BTC losing $82,800 doesn’t automatically mean the trend is broken.

It simply means the breakout is losing strength.

Know the difference.

New week tomorrow so i will share some altcoins weekly charts.

Let me know which one you want me to post 👇

$TAO
Nothing much to update on it, Nothing has happened.

At least the price is holding the zone that it should.

Quick market update on the drops we saw on October 7 and 8, and what I think caused them.

First of all, the selling wasn't limited to crypto. Gold and equities were also taking a hit. But let's focus on what specifically affected crypto.

The first drop came after the US government transferred some Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime. The market usually assumes these transfers could be intended for selling, creating uncertainty and triggering sell pressure.

On October 8, we saw another drop following concerns about AI potentially making hackers more capable and threatening Bitcoin's cryptographic security.

But IMO, the biggest factor was the fear of another October 10.
Most of you remember what happened back then. A lot of altcoins practically went to zero, and people took massive losses.

That experience is still fresh in people's minds. When the market started dropping again, people began thinking, what if it happens all over again? What if we lose everything?

So instead of waiting, people started closing their positions to avoid getting caught in another major sell-off.

I think this fear played a major role because it wasn't just about the news. People were actively reducing risk because they didn't want to experience the same thing again.

And obviously, altcoins took a much bigger hit. They have lower liquidity and are more vulnerable to aggressive selling, so when everyone rushes for the exit, the damage is usually much worse.
Now, here's the important part.

If the market starts recovering from here, it would suggest these factors were largely responsible for the sell-off and we could see another move higher.

The next few days will be important. We'll get a better idea of whether the market is preparing for new highs or whether there's more pain ahead.

For now, I'm watching how the market reacts rather than jumping to conclusions.

Personally i am positioned for the upside as i bought the dip
I'll keep you guys updated as things develop.

Bought almost the same amount of $ZEC that i sold at the top.
Someone stop my hands pls 😭😂