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CRYPTO MECHANIC
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CRYPTO MECHANIC

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Trading Crypto Since 2016 | X: @cryptomechanicX
Blockchain 100 — 2025: Трейдер
Blockchain 100 — 2025: Трейдер
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Creator Awards 2024
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Excellence Award (Trading)
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For the last few weeks, I’ve been observing the moves on some good stocks with strong volatility and volume. I’ve been watching how price reacts to breakouts, fakeouts, earnings, pullbacks and continuation setups. Honestly, I’ve been learning a lot just by observing these market movements. I haven’t shared most of these on my profile besides SNDK and MU. I don’t want to share trades just to pretend that I know everything. I obviously don’t. This market is still totally new to me, so I’m taking my time, observing, learning and understanding how these stocks actually move. There’s a lot to learn, and I’d rather spend time learning properly than pretending I already know it all.
For the last few weeks, I’ve been observing the moves on some good stocks with strong volatility and volume.

I’ve been watching how price reacts to breakouts, fakeouts, earnings, pullbacks and continuation setups.

Honestly, I’ve been learning a lot just by observing these market movements.

I haven’t shared most of these on my profile besides SNDK and MU. I don’t want to share trades just to pretend that I know everything.

I obviously don’t.

This market is still totally new to me, so I’m taking my time, observing, learning and understanding how these stocks actually move.

There’s a lot to learn, and I’d rather spend time learning properly than pretending I already know it all.
$SNDK Broke out 1330, retested it and gave a nice continuation up.
$SNDK

Broke out 1330, retested it and gave a nice continuation up.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Pretty clean downtrend on the $SNDK daily chart.
Just need a break and this becomes a buy, until that happens, There is nothing for me.
New high on Spx and then there is…..
New high on Spx and then there is…..
$BTC Got rejected from that high volume area. Still a range overall. If it dips down to the range lows, that would be something to observe.
$BTC Got rejected from that high volume area.

Still a range overall. If it dips down to the range lows, that would be something to observe.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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$BTC Bulls need to clear this $65k - 65.7k zone then we can expect something good from crypto.
Very high volume has been traded around this zone with most buyers trapped above it.

Clear this zone, Crypto is good, Until then it is just a chop.
Every day for the last 3 days, right around 8:00 AM, just before/at the US stock market open, they’ve been slamming Bitcoin.
Every day for the last 3 days, right around 8:00 AM, just before/at the US stock market open, they’ve been slamming Bitcoin.
The inflation data was good for Risk on Assets and it looks like crypto is the only risk off Asset, i thought it was Gold 😂😂
The inflation data was good for Risk on Assets and it looks like crypto is the only risk off Asset, i thought it was Gold 😂😂
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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July U.S. Inflation Data is out

CPI: 3.4% YoY — Expected 3.4%
CPI: 0.1% MoM — Expected 0.1%
Core CPI: 2.5% YoY — Expected 2.5%
Core CPI: 0.2% MoM — Expected 0.2%

Everything came exactly in line with expectations.
So what does this mean for the market?

Inflation isn't getting worse than expected, which is the good news. But it also isn't cooling faster than expected.
This means the data is neutral to slightly positive for risk assets like stocks and crypto.

However, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target. so this data alone probably won't completely remove the possibility of further rate hikes.
We all should thank Binance for giving us Stocks to trade while Crypto is doing nothing.
We all should thank Binance for giving us Stocks to trade while Crypto is doing nothing.
Проверено
July U.S. Inflation Data is out CPI: 3.4% YoY — Expected 3.4% CPI: 0.1% MoM — Expected 0.1% Core CPI: 2.5% YoY — Expected 2.5% Core CPI: 0.2% MoM — Expected 0.2% Everything came exactly in line with expectations. So what does this mean for the market? Inflation isn't getting worse than expected, which is the good news. But it also isn't cooling faster than expected. This means the data is neutral to slightly positive for risk assets like stocks and crypto. However, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target. so this data alone probably won't completely remove the possibility of further rate hikes.
July U.S. Inflation Data is out

CPI: 3.4% YoY — Expected 3.4%
CPI: 0.1% MoM — Expected 0.1%
Core CPI: 2.5% YoY — Expected 2.5%
Core CPI: 0.2% MoM — Expected 0.2%

Everything came exactly in line with expectations.
So what does this mean for the market?

Inflation isn't getting worse than expected, which is the good news. But it also isn't cooling faster than expected.
This means the data is neutral to slightly positive for risk assets like stocks and crypto.

However, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target. so this data alone probably won't completely remove the possibility of further rate hikes.
Most people don’t lose money during a downtrend. They lose money during the chop, constantly thinking: “This could be the bottom.” They keep buying every dip, trying to catch the reversal. And when the market finally finds a bottom, they’re either liquidated or sitting on a terrible average.
Most people don’t lose money during a downtrend.
They lose money during the chop, constantly thinking:
“This could be the bottom.”

They keep buying every dip, trying to catch the reversal.
And when the market finally finds a bottom, they’re either liquidated or sitting on a terrible average.
Goes out for a walk and you all dumped the market.
Goes out for a walk and you all dumped the market.
Pretty clean downtrend on the $SNDK daily chart. Just need a break and this becomes a buy, until that happens, There is nothing for me.
Pretty clean downtrend on the $SNDK daily chart.
Just need a break and this becomes a buy, until that happens, There is nothing for me.
8 months later, What Crypto did? Bearish and Sideways 🤝
8 months later, What Crypto did?

Bearish and Sideways 🤝
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Everyone is saying the 4 years cycle is over and we are in a super cycle now, i dont know about that but i do think the most part of 2026 will be bearish/Sideways.

If not Q1 of 2026 i think Q2,3 will be most likely bearish/Sideways.
$XAU has been up only since that breakout.
$XAU has been up only since that breakout.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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$XAU breaking out as well
One of those days when you just sign off, grab a mango shake or some ice cream, and let the market do whatever it wants.
One of those days when you just sign off, grab a mango shake or some ice cream, and let the market do whatever it wants.
I think we are going to see some reaction soon..!
I think we are going to see some reaction soon..!
Статья
Bitcoin - The Time Is Tickingit has been a few months since Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range, and we currently have two parties. The first one believes Bitcoin has already bottomed, while the other believes Bitcoin is still following the 4-year cycle, meaning it will/should bottom around October or Q4. This article is more about market sentiment than my own thoughts about the market. Let's discuss these two parties and why they think the bottom is already in and what are the signs that you could use to position yourself for the next few months/years. Bitcoin Has Already Bottomed Bitcoin is consolidating/trading within a tight range, and historically, this is how bear markets usually end. Bitcoin spends a few months trading within a range before starting another bull market cycle. Many traders believe this is the bear market consolidation, meaning the bottom has already been formed and Bitcoin isn't going lower. For reference, let's go back to the previous bear markets and see how the bear market usually ends. 2022 Bear Market The 2022 bear market ended with Bitcoin spending almost 200 days trading within a range. It made its first low in June and then another low in November. The current picture looks quite similar to the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin made a low in February and then another low in June. The percentage of the downside isn't the same, but it's a range after a range, and that's the whole point of this comparison. 2018 Bear Market 2018 Bear market ended the same way, Bitcoin spent 129 days in a range before it starting another Bull market cycle. Bitcoin Refusing to go down Despite so much FUD Another argument we could make is: Bear markets usually end with bad news, and Bitcoin has faced quite a few negative events recently, but the price is refusing to go down. Saylor Sold BTC Exchanges shutting down (Asendex, Bitmex)Bitcoin ColdWallet hackedBitcoin BIP-110 fork Despite all this bad news, Bitcoin is still standing above $60k. This is what makes people think that Bitcoin has already bottomed, and that it is simply consolidating and getting ready for the next cycle. Bitcoin's Bottom is Not In Then we have another group of people who think the bottom is not in yet. Let's discuss their arguments and understand their logic. Bitcoin 4 years cycle Historically, since Bitcoin started going through its bull and bear market cycles, there has been one thing in common: Bitcoin has marked its next top roughly four years after the previous top, and every bear market has ended around one year after Bitcoin marked its top. 2022: Bitcoin topped in November and bottomed in November.2018: Bitcoin topped in December and bottomed in December.2015: It was slightly different. Bitcoin topped in November and bottomed in January. So, we can say that Bitcoin tends to bottom around one year after the top, or in Q4. The argument is: If Bitcoin topped after four years, just like it has in previous cycles, then why wouldn't it bottom in October or Q4, like it did in the previous cycles? Previous cycles had a final low after the initial bottom Even when Bitcoin appeared to have bottomed, previous cycles sometimes produced another significant low months later (Same month it topped or Q4). So the current low could simply be the first major low, not the final bottom. Bitcoin Onchain indicators Some onchain analyst are saying Bitcoin hasn't bottomed yet because the on chain indicators are yet to reset. i am not going to talk about those indicators because i do not have any expertise on these. Lower highs are still in place The Time Is Ticking Whether or not the bear market is over, I think there isn't much time left for people to position themselves for the next crypto cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed around the same month it topped. Bitcoin topped in October, and October is only 50 days away. If you're part of the group that thinks the bottom is already in, you should start positioning yourself for the next cycle already. If you're part of the group that thinks the bottom is not in yet, there isn't much time left for it. And this is where I think people are looking at this the wrong way. You don't necessarily have to predict the exact bottom. The important thing is to be prepared for both scenarios. If the bottom is already in, waiting for a much lower price could mean missing the next move entirely. If the bottom isn't in yet, there could still be better opportunities to buy at lower prices. The market doesn't care about our predictions. What matters is having a plan for both outcomes. The time is ticking. Whether Bitcoin has already bottomed or still has one more leg down, I think the window to start preparing for the next cycle is getting smaller. You don't need to catch the exact bottom. You just need to be ready when the market turns. Which group are you part of? Let me know.

Bitcoin - The Time Is Ticking

it has been a few months since Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range, and we currently have two parties.
The first one believes Bitcoin has already bottomed, while the other believes Bitcoin is still following the 4-year cycle, meaning it will/should bottom around October or Q4.
This article is more about market sentiment than my own thoughts about the market.
Let's discuss these two parties and why they think the bottom is already in and what are the signs that you could use to position yourself for the next few months/years.
Bitcoin Has Already Bottomed
Bitcoin is consolidating/trading within a tight range, and historically, this is how bear markets usually end.
Bitcoin spends a few months trading within a range before starting another bull market cycle. Many traders believe this is the bear market consolidation, meaning the bottom has already been formed and Bitcoin isn't going lower.
For reference, let's go back to the previous bear markets and see how the bear market usually ends.
2022 Bear Market
The 2022 bear market ended with Bitcoin spending almost 200 days trading within a range. It made its first low in June and then another low in November.
The current picture looks quite similar to the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin made a low in February and then another low in June. The percentage of the downside isn't the same, but it's a range after a range, and that's the whole point of this comparison.
2018 Bear Market
2018 Bear market ended the same way, Bitcoin spent 129 days in a range before it starting another Bull market cycle.
Bitcoin Refusing to go down Despite so much FUD
Another argument we could make is:
Bear markets usually end with bad news, and Bitcoin has faced quite a few negative events recently, but the price is refusing to go down.
Saylor Sold BTC Exchanges shutting down (Asendex, Bitmex)Bitcoin ColdWallet hackedBitcoin BIP-110 fork
Despite all this bad news, Bitcoin is still standing above $60k. This is what makes people think that Bitcoin has already bottomed, and that it is simply consolidating and getting ready for the next cycle.
Bitcoin's Bottom is Not In
Then we have another group of people who think the bottom is not in yet. Let's discuss their arguments and understand their logic.
Bitcoin 4 years cycle
Historically, since Bitcoin started going through its bull and bear market cycles, there has been one thing in common: Bitcoin has marked its next top roughly four years after the previous top, and every bear market has ended around one year after Bitcoin marked its top.
2022: Bitcoin topped in November and bottomed in November.2018: Bitcoin topped in December and bottomed in December.2015: It was slightly different. Bitcoin topped in November and bottomed in January.
So, we can say that Bitcoin tends to bottom around one year after the top, or in Q4.
The argument is: If Bitcoin topped after four years, just like it has in previous cycles, then why wouldn't it bottom in October or Q4, like it did in the previous cycles?
Previous cycles had a final low after the initial bottom
Even when Bitcoin appeared to have bottomed, previous cycles sometimes produced another significant low months later (Same month it topped or Q4). So the current low could simply be the first major low, not the final bottom.
Bitcoin Onchain indicators
Some onchain analyst are saying Bitcoin hasn't bottomed yet because the on chain indicators are yet to reset.
i am not going to talk about those indicators because i do not have any expertise on these.
Lower highs are still in place
The Time Is Ticking
Whether or not the bear market is over, I think there isn't much time left for people to position themselves for the next crypto cycle.
Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed around the same month it topped. Bitcoin topped in October, and October is only 50 days away.
If you're part of the group that thinks the bottom is already in, you should start positioning yourself for the next cycle already.
If you're part of the group that thinks the bottom is not in yet, there isn't much time left for it.
And this is where I think people are looking at this the wrong way.
You don't necessarily have to predict the exact bottom. The important thing is to be prepared for both scenarios.
If the bottom is already in, waiting for a much lower price could mean missing the next move entirely. If the bottom isn't in yet, there could still be better opportunities to buy at lower prices.
The market doesn't care about our predictions. What matters is having a plan for both outcomes.
The time is ticking. Whether Bitcoin has already bottomed or still has one more leg down, I think the window to start preparing for the next cycle is getting smaller.
You don't need to catch the exact bottom. You just need to be ready when the market turns.
Which group are you part of? Let me know.
The lowest BTC/USDT volume days in the last 5 years. I dont even remember when the last time i saw the volume being this low.
The lowest BTC/USDT volume days in the last 5 years.

I dont even remember when the last time i saw the volume being this low.
So how did it end? A slow move up followed by a liquidation/FOMO spike. $TUT
So how did it end?
A slow move up followed by a liquidation/FOMO spike.

$TUT
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Obviously, this is not going to end well.

Illiquid coins, and most of these moves are being fuelled by short liquidations.

People short only because they think, “It has pumped so much, so it should go down now.”

The only good way to long or short something is by observing a lower timeframe shift or a euphoric spike up.

Observe it on the 15-minute or 30-minute timeframe:

* Structure shift
* Liquidation spikes

That is when you take a counter-trend trade.

Anything you do before that, you are just adding more fuel to the move.
Obviously, this is not going to end well. Illiquid coins, and most of these moves are being fuelled by short liquidations. People short only because they think, “It has pumped so much, so it should go down now.” The only good way to long or short something is by observing a lower timeframe shift or a euphoric spike up. Observe it on the 15-minute or 30-minute timeframe: * Structure shift * Liquidation spikes That is when you take a counter-trend trade. Anything you do before that, you are just adding more fuel to the move.
Obviously, this is not going to end well.

Illiquid coins, and most of these moves are being fuelled by short liquidations.

People short only because they think, “It has pumped so much, so it should go down now.”

The only good way to long or short something is by observing a lower timeframe shift or a euphoric spike up.

Observe it on the 15-minute or 30-minute timeframe:

* Structure shift
* Liquidation spikes

That is when you take a counter-trend trade.

Anything you do before that, you are just adding more fuel to the move.
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