Nicolas Samui
Créateur de la chaine youtube et de la newsletter "les clefs du marchés" 👉 https://nicolas777.substack.com/
Открытая сделка
Владелец BNB
Случайный трейдер
4.9 г
9 подписок(и/а)
170 подписчиков(а)
235 понравилось
20 поделились
Посты
Портфель
Все
Цитирования
Видео
BITCOIN HASHRATE HITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE 2025
Bitcoin hashrate has fallen to its lowest point since June 30, 2025, as miners face pressure from electricity scarcity intensified by the AI compute race.
The hashrate compression is capping Bitcoin's price action and testing miner survival as energy resources shift toward more lucrative #AI/#HPC operations.
$BTC
Bitcoin hashrate has fallen to its lowest point since June 30, 2025, as miners face pressure from electricity scarcity intensified by the AI compute race.
The hashrate compression is capping Bitcoin's price action and testing miner survival as energy resources shift toward more lucrative #AI/#HPC operations.
$BTC
BIG TECH EARNINGS: #ALPHABET WEDNESDAY, #AMAZON THURSDAY
Alphabet reports Wednesday with consensus EPS of $2.62 versus $2.15 prior year, followed by Amazon Thursday expecting $1.95 versus $1.86.
The S&P 500 Information Technology sector sits in a compression triangle awaiting directional breakout, making these earnings critical catalysts for the next major move in tech and risk assets.
Alphabet reports Wednesday with consensus EPS of $2.62 versus $2.15 prior year, followed by Amazon Thursday expecting $1.95 versus $1.86.
The S&P 500 Information Technology sector sits in a compression triangle awaiting directional breakout, making these earnings critical catalysts for the next major move in tech and risk assets.
#ADP JOBS DATA TONIGHT COULD FORCE FED'S HAND
ADP employment report releases tonight with markets watching the critical 41,000 threshold.
With inflation collapsing and unemployment rising since October 2024 already exceeding the Fed's 4.4% target, a miss below 41K could compel accelerated rate cuts despite current hawkish Fed positioning.
#FED
ADP employment report releases tonight with markets watching the critical 41,000 threshold.
With inflation collapsing and unemployment rising since October 2024 already exceeding the Fed's 4.4% target, a miss below 41K could compel accelerated rate cuts despite current hawkish Fed positioning.
#FED
US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS AS TRUMP SIGNS FUNDING BILL
President #Trump signed the funding legislation after House and Senate approval, ending the partial government shutdown.
The resolution averts disruptions to federal payrolls, economic data releases, and government spending, removing a near-term uncertainty overhang from markets.
President #Trump signed the funding legislation after House and Senate approval, ending the partial government shutdown.
The resolution averts disruptions to federal payrolls, economic data releases, and government spending, removing a near-term uncertainty overhang from markets.
#FED GOVERNOR MIRAN CALLS FOR 100+ BPS RATE CUTS IN 2026
Fed Governor Stephen Miran argues the Federal Reserve should cut rates by over 100 basis points this year, claiming inflation data is overstated.
The dovish stance contrasts sharply with Fed Watch Tool pricing only one 25bp cut for all of 2026, revealing a major disconnect between policy voices and market expectations.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran argues the Federal Reserve should cut rates by over 100 basis points this year, claiming inflation data is overstated.
The dovish stance contrasts sharply with Fed Watch Tool pricing only one 25bp cut for all of 2026, revealing a major disconnect between policy voices and market expectations.
PAYPAL CRASHES 20% ON EARNINGS MISS AND CEO SHAKE-UP
#PayPal plunged 20% after Q4 revenue of $8.68 billion missed the $8.80 billion estimate and 2026 guidance projected declining profits versus 8% growth expected.
CEO Alex Chriss was immediately replaced by ex-HP chief Enrique Lores, signaling the board’s acknowledgment of failed turnaround efforts amid intensifying fintech competition.
#PayPal plunged 20% after Q4 revenue of $8.68 billion missed the $8.80 billion estimate and 2026 guidance projected declining profits versus 8% growth expected.
CEO Alex Chriss was immediately replaced by ex-HP chief Enrique Lores, signaling the board’s acknowledgment of failed turnaround efforts amid intensifying fintech competition.
TRUMP ELEVATES #BITCOIN TO TOP PRIORITY ALONGSIDE #AI
President Trump has placed Bitcoin at the same priority level as artificial intelligence in his administration's strategic focus.
The elevation of crypto to match AI's importance signals a major policy shift positioning digital assets as critical to America's technological and economic competitiveness.
President Trump has placed Bitcoin at the same priority level as artificial intelligence in his administration's strategic focus.
The elevation of crypto to match AI's importance signals a major policy shift positioning digital assets as critical to America's technological and economic competitiveness.
🚨MARKETS OVERREACT TO #WARSH BALANCE SHEET COMMENTS
The #Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.5–6.7 trillion, down from over $7 trillion a year ago and well below the $9 trillion crisis peak, yet risk assets rallied throughout this normalization.
Market panic over Warsh's comments ignores that gradual balance sheet reduction can coexist with strong asset performance.
$BTC
The #Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.5–6.7 trillion, down from over $7 trillion a year ago and well below the $9 trillion crisis peak, yet risk assets rallied throughout this normalization.
Market panic over Warsh's comments ignores that gradual balance sheet reduction can coexist with strong asset performance.
$BTC
Listen carefully.
We are at the starting point of a rally for #Bitcoin that most people can’t even imagine.
Kevin #Warsh states that Bitcoin is not a substitute for the dollar, but a tool to inform policymakers when they’re doing things right or wrong, enforce market discipline, and fix what needs to be fixed.
What a time to be alive.
This is the end of the bear cycle.
We are at the starting point of a rally for #Bitcoin that most people can’t even imagine.
Kevin #Warsh states that Bitcoin is not a substitute for the dollar, but a tool to inform policymakers when they’re doing things right or wrong, enforce market discipline, and fix what needs to be fixed.
What a time to be alive.
This is the end of the bear cycle.
WHAT IS the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act that just advanced on January 29, 2026, AND WHY could this unlock a massive wave of new crypto ETF approvals?
I think this is the regulatory breakthrough that changes everything.
The #CLARITYAct just passed the Senate Agriculture Committee, ending years of jurisdictional ambiguity on digital assets.
It clearly divides authority: SEC for securities, CFTC for commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This means digital assets classified as "commodities" can be structured into ETFs without SEC securities registration.
The legal uncertainty that blocked crypto ETF approvals for years is being systematically removed.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved in 2024, but countless other major assets remained stuck in regulatory limbo.
With clear CFTC jurisdiction, the path now opens for ETFs on Solana, Cardano, $XRP , and other assets that qualify as commodities.
The SEC already registered several crypto ETPs in July 2025, and this clarity could massively extend approvals to more assets.
Combined with Paul Atkins' statements on crypto in 401(k) plans, the regulatory infrastructure is converging fast.
We're not talking about speculation anymore.
This is the framework for trillions in institutional capital to flow into digital assets through compliant, regulated products in 2026.
I think this is the regulatory breakthrough that changes everything.
The #CLARITYAct just passed the Senate Agriculture Committee, ending years of jurisdictional ambiguity on digital assets.
It clearly divides authority: SEC for securities, CFTC for commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This means digital assets classified as "commodities" can be structured into ETFs without SEC securities registration.
The legal uncertainty that blocked crypto ETF approvals for years is being systematically removed.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved in 2024, but countless other major assets remained stuck in regulatory limbo.
With clear CFTC jurisdiction, the path now opens for ETFs on Solana, Cardano, $XRP , and other assets that qualify as commodities.
The SEC already registered several crypto ETPs in July 2025, and this clarity could massively extend approvals to more assets.
Combined with Paul Atkins' statements on crypto in 401(k) plans, the regulatory infrastructure is converging fast.
We're not talking about speculation anymore.
This is the framework for trillions in institutional capital to flow into digital assets through compliant, regulated products in 2026.
Nous vivons un moment historique.
Le système financier que nous connaissons est déjà obsolète. Il sera remplacé par une infrastructure crypto de nouvelle génération, via le New Structure Bill.
Bitcoin mènera cette transition.
Le système financier que nous connaissons est déjà obsolète. Il sera remplacé par une infrastructure crypto de nouvelle génération, via le New Structure Bill.
Bitcoin mènera cette transition.
#Gold starting to behave like shitcoin is good news for #Bitcoin
It reveals how gold’s price is now driven by speculation and leverage rather than real physical demand.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is oversold, with concrete fundamentals: institutional buyers, US pro-crypto laws (401k), strategic reserves, and growing state accumulation.
Bitcoin is the sage, gold is the restless child.
It reveals how gold’s price is now driven by speculation and leverage rather than real physical demand.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is oversold, with concrete fundamentals: institutional buyers, US pro-crypto laws (401k), strategic reserves, and growing state accumulation.
Bitcoin is the sage, gold is the restless child.
US TRADE DEFICIT NEARLY DOUBLES TO $56.8 BILLION
The US trade deficit almost doubled month-over-month to $56.8 billion in November, crushing the $44 billion consensus as imports surged 5% while exports fell 3.6%.
The extreme volatility reflects shifting tariff policies creating chaos in trade flows and widening America's economic imbalance.
#USA
The US trade deficit almost doubled month-over-month to $56.8 billion in November, crushing the $44 billion consensus as imports surged 5% while exports fell 3.6%.
The extreme volatility reflects shifting tariff policies creating chaos in trade flows and widening America's economic imbalance.
#USA
GOLD 55% ABOVE 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE
#Gold is trading 55% above its 200-day moving average, an extreme deviation historically followed by violent mean reversion.
A simple return to this key technical level would represent a 55% decline from current prices, raising questions about gold's parabolic rally sustainability.
#Gold is trading 55% above its 200-day moving average, an extreme deviation historically followed by violent mean reversion.
A simple return to this key technical level would represent a 55% decline from current prices, raising questions about gold's parabolic rally sustainability.
#BITCOIN HASHRATE STAGNATES AS MINERS PIVOT TO #AI
Bitcoin Hashrate has flatlined since April 2025 as miners shift capacity to more lucrative AI/HPC operations due to electricity constraints.
However, #Bitcoin mining's unique ability to provide grid stabilization through demand response could make it indispensable for energy infrastructure despite the exodus.
Bitcoin Hashrate has flatlined since April 2025 as miners shift capacity to more lucrative AI/HPC operations due to electricity constraints.
However, #Bitcoin mining's unique ability to provide grid stabilization through demand response could make it indispensable for energy infrastructure despite the exodus.
WHAT IS the Bitcoin/Gold ratio telling us right now, AND WHY should this technical breakdown be sett
I think it's worth analyzing this signal carefully, because we're seeing patterns that historically only appear during major crises.
First, the technical facts are striking.
The logarithmic uptrend line on the BTC/Gold ratio, intact since 2019, just broke down.
This is unusual, especially given the temporal repetition we've observed in previous cycles.
The ratio just dropped below its 200-day moving average (IN RED), something that historically only happened during extreme bear market phases.
Specifically, this occurred during the COVID crash and during the Terra/Luna crisis.
This means we're seeing a breakdown signal that previously only appeared during capitulation events.
But here's what makes this situation abnormal: we haven't experienced any comparable major capitulation event yet.
No exchange collapse, no major protocol failure, no panic selling climax.
The ratio is signaling crisis-level stress without the typical crisis trigger.
The RSI on this ratio sits at 27.71, near the lowest levels since 2015, indicating rare oversold conditions.
If we project forward, a return of the ratio toward 9 would mechanically imply Bitcoin around $47,205.
This would correspond to a zone of marked macro stress and serious risk-off sentiment.
So what does this actually mean for positioning?
Two possible interpretations exist, and they lead to very different outcomes.
- Scenario one: this is a temporary anomaly caused by gold's exceptional rally driven by central bank buying and de-dollarization, while #bitcoin consolidates after its ETF-driven surge.
The ratio reverts, Bitcoin catches up to gold, and we continue the cycle normally.
- Scenario two: this is an early warning signal of a broader macro event coming.
The ratio is front-running a crisis that markets haven't fully priced yet, whether it's a geopolitical shock, a Fed policy mistake, or a liquidity crunch.
The fact that we're seeing crisis-level technical signals without a crisis is what makes this setup so critical to monitor.
Either we're witnessing an unprecedented divergence that will snap back violently, or the ratio is telling us something the headlines haven't caught up to yet.
For traders, this means managing risk carefully.
The ratio is at historically extreme levels that have preceded either massive reversals or continued deterioration into full bear markets.
Watch this signal closely in the coming weeks, because its resolution will likely define the next major move across all risk assets.
First, the technical facts are striking.
The logarithmic uptrend line on the BTC/Gold ratio, intact since 2019, just broke down.
This is unusual, especially given the temporal repetition we've observed in previous cycles.
The ratio just dropped below its 200-day moving average (IN RED), something that historically only happened during extreme bear market phases.
Specifically, this occurred during the COVID crash and during the Terra/Luna crisis.
This means we're seeing a breakdown signal that previously only appeared during capitulation events.
But here's what makes this situation abnormal: we haven't experienced any comparable major capitulation event yet.
No exchange collapse, no major protocol failure, no panic selling climax.
The ratio is signaling crisis-level stress without the typical crisis trigger.
The RSI on this ratio sits at 27.71, near the lowest levels since 2015, indicating rare oversold conditions.
If we project forward, a return of the ratio toward 9 would mechanically imply Bitcoin around $47,205.
This would correspond to a zone of marked macro stress and serious risk-off sentiment.
So what does this actually mean for positioning?
Two possible interpretations exist, and they lead to very different outcomes.
- Scenario one: this is a temporary anomaly caused by gold's exceptional rally driven by central bank buying and de-dollarization, while #bitcoin consolidates after its ETF-driven surge.
The ratio reverts, Bitcoin catches up to gold, and we continue the cycle normally.
- Scenario two: this is an early warning signal of a broader macro event coming.
The ratio is front-running a crisis that markets haven't fully priced yet, whether it's a geopolitical shock, a Fed policy mistake, or a liquidity crunch.
The fact that we're seeing crisis-level technical signals without a crisis is what makes this setup so critical to monitor.
Either we're witnessing an unprecedented divergence that will snap back violently, or the ratio is telling us something the headlines haven't caught up to yet.
For traders, this means managing risk carefully.
The ratio is at historically extreme levels that have preceded either massive reversals or continued deterioration into full bear markets.
Watch this signal closely in the coming weeks, because its resolution will likely define the next major move across all risk assets.
🇺🇸🌪️ WHY IS this week setting up for extreme market volatility, AND WHAT are the key geopolitical triggers traders need to watch?
I think it's worth laying out the pressure points clearly, because multiple systemic risks are converging simultaneously.
Geopolitics and macro are now dominating market narratives.
The heavy de-dollarization trend continues accelerating as BRICS nations dump US Treasuries for gold and alternative reserves.
The US government shutdown risk is back on the table, threatening fiscal stability and market confidence.
Fed independence is under direct threat with Trump's upcoming Chair nomination, creating unprecedented monetary policy uncertainty.
Trump is multiplying aggressive declarations: demands for Greenland control, tariff threats against Canada, and escalating trade war rhetoric.
Meanwhile, the United States is reinforcing its military posture near Iran, raising the specter of Middle East conflict.
This means traders face a perfect storm of interconnected risks.
Any single one of these factors could trigger sharp moves, but together they create a highly unstable environment where headlines can instantly shift sentiment.
For crypto specifically, this volatility cuts both ways.
Short-term, risk-off moves could pressure Bitcoin as it correlates with equity markets and US liquidity conditions.
But longer-term, these exact tensions fuel the narrative for decentralized, non-sovereign assets outside traditional finance.
This week, expect whipsaws across all asset classes.
Bonds, equities, crypto, and commodities will all react violently to any escalation on these fronts.
The smart play isn't predicting direction, it's managing exposure and staying nimble as these geopolitical pressures play out in real time.
I think it's worth laying out the pressure points clearly, because multiple systemic risks are converging simultaneously.
Geopolitics and macro are now dominating market narratives.
The heavy de-dollarization trend continues accelerating as BRICS nations dump US Treasuries for gold and alternative reserves.
The US government shutdown risk is back on the table, threatening fiscal stability and market confidence.
Fed independence is under direct threat with Trump's upcoming Chair nomination, creating unprecedented monetary policy uncertainty.
Trump is multiplying aggressive declarations: demands for Greenland control, tariff threats against Canada, and escalating trade war rhetoric.
Meanwhile, the United States is reinforcing its military posture near Iran, raising the specter of Middle East conflict.
This means traders face a perfect storm of interconnected risks.
Any single one of these factors could trigger sharp moves, but together they create a highly unstable environment where headlines can instantly shift sentiment.
For crypto specifically, this volatility cuts both ways.
Short-term, risk-off moves could pressure Bitcoin as it correlates with equity markets and US liquidity conditions.
But longer-term, these exact tensions fuel the narrative for decentralized, non-sovereign assets outside traditional finance.
This week, expect whipsaws across all asset classes.
Bonds, equities, crypto, and commodities will all react violently to any escalation on these fronts.
The smart play isn't predicting direction, it's managing exposure and staying nimble as these geopolitical pressures play out in real time.
Войдите, чтобы посмотреть больше материала