I am focused on two primary scenarios, with a strong bias towards the first.
🟢 MAIN SCENARIO (70% Probability): Pullback, Then Upside Continuation to $71,000
Thesis: The pivotal improvement in institutional flow is legitimate, but the price has moved too far, too fast (LTF RSI is overbought). Healthy trends require consolidation. Key Watch Zone: A retracement towards the $68,200 - $68,500 range. This former resistance should now act as support, creating a favorable risk/reward asymmetry. Execution Plan:
· Entry (Limit Order): $68,300 · Stop-Loss: $67,900. A break below this level invalidates the support thesis. · Take-Profit 1: $69,500 (Initial resistance test) · Take-Profit 2: $70,500 - $71,000 (Technical & psychological resistance zone) · Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3
🔴 COUNTER SCENARIO (30% Probability): Rejection and Retest of $66,000
Trigger: Resumption of aggressive whale distribution (Exchange Whale Ratio > 0.92) coupled with a deterioration in the Coinbase Premium. My Action: Immediately invalidate the long plan. I will NOT short against such negative funding rates. Instead, I will revert to a NO TRADE stance and await a new, clearer signal.$BTC
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