AriaNaka

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People are getting chopped up alive here.

No reason to get involved just after a failed range high breakout.

Range high deviations are usually followed by more downside or chop.

If you're HTF bullish (as I am), you place your bets when:

→ LTFs look bullish
→ They offer clear invalidation

Be careful fam, this is not the time to be a hero.

$BTC lower time frames

Still ugly. Still looks heavy, and I see zero reason to get involved here.

Staying patient until we get a good setup at either the range lows or range high.

Middle of nowhere at the moment. Recipe for getting chopped up and losing it all before the next cycle.

Hope you are all safe.

I refuse to fucking believe,

That $BTC will not follow SP500s recovery.

Very disappointing to see SP500 recover half of its entire drop while BTC has done absolutely nothing.

Even I’m starting to feel it.

$BTC remains bearish on the daily chart.

200-day SMA is sitting at $73,142 and has not been retested since August 20th.

Two months after price broke above it in January 2023, price retested it, and then V-shape recovered.

Retest and V-shape?

$ZEC As a zec bull, I like seeing this strength in a bad market.

As someone looking to add more, I'd still love one more dip into the range high zone.

But this strength makes me even more confident it'll be one of the outperformers once the market turns.

In 2019, I wouldn't have believed crypto twitter would be the most depressed I've ever seen it while Bitcoin trades between $80,000-$100,000.

Even more depressing than when we crashed from $20k to $3k in 2018.

People don't hold enough Bitcoin.

People gamble it all away on altcoins. Which is okay, it's part of the process. Some will make it, most will blow up & roundtrip everything.

And it's not too late to change that.

I still believe Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million.

But guess what?

If it happens and we dip back to $700,000, everyone here will be depressed again because they didn't hold enough Bitcoin.

The opportunity in crypto is still here imo. But it's not endless

The good news is that this is exactly how a bottom forming should feel.

→ everyone hates each other
→ every rally feels like we’re going to $200k
→ every dump feels like we’re going to zero
→ bad news
→ zoom out and price barely moves
→ and it takes time. lots of time.

Chop and time-based capitulation kill the most people.

anger + desperation🤝

$NEAR There we go, range lows getting closer.

Still macro bullish, still think these are opportunities.

Just need some patience for the lower time frames to form a proper setup again.

It has been a while since we have seen $BTC dump over the weekend.

This will be the 5 consecutive weekly red candle. We’re also dumping into CPI while sweeping the stops below the lows.

I’m anticipating a strong move back up this week.

$SOL remains oversold on the daily chart.

Price is drifting towards target four.

Downtrend until proven otherwise.

$NEAR has broken below the yellow line and target three.

Probabilities continues to increase of price hitting the fourth target box and the blue line.

$BTC has literally never made a new low after forming a weekly HH.

Of course, that’s based on BTC having already impulsed from the bottom.

So, based on history, this next low should be a HL. BTC is already down 14%, and HTF market structure has shifted, so it’s likely we’re close to forming one.

If we somehow make a new LL after forming a weekly HH, I’ll probably deactivate my account.😂

Monday has been a shitty day for $BTC

Almost every upside sweep on Monday has been retraced over the past 2 months.

We sweep local highs, then reject back down. If we’re genuinely going higher next week, ideally Monday’s high gets flipped and holds for the rest of the week.

$BTC Price just swept a major level and tapped into mFVG (75k),

And I see people are still waiting for lower, so that they can get a perfect entry before the next leg up.

Which usually results into them getting frontrun on a 18-20% move just because they wanted to catch extra 3-4%.

Is there a possibility of 72-73k for max pain before 90k ?

Absolutely there is, but at the same time ask yourself if you are mentally prepared to miss out on the next 18-20% move.

I am already positioned for the next leg while keeping the 72-73k level in mind.

Now it's just a matter of time before we see things play out.

$NEAR Finally getting closer to the range low I was eyeing to add to my position.

Still a great-looking macro chart.

Still interested. Just not in a rush to get a new entry.

Will wait for a) the range low zone, and b) a setup + BTC giving us more clarity on the lower time frames.

But still looking good.

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$BTC Lower time frames

A bounce here and some green wouldn't surprise me, but not buying dips yet.

Still the same triggers:

→ Range high reclaim to step in
→ Or, the lower part of the range

Not getting chopped up in the middle before the better days.

Still believe we're forming a macro bottom range, just not interested at the top of this lower time frame range after deviating back inside.

Those who survive this period of pain will be rewarded.

Patience.

$BTC just dropped below $75,000 and price is below target two.

A candle close below signals higher odds of hitting target three.

Long liquidation clusters remain below.

Despite the aggressive hunts on $BTC

USDT.D remains in its downtrend, which puts the bigger picture into perspective.

If the bottom is truly in, we shouldn’t see USDT.D fill any of the imbalance from its initial move higher (the same move that pushed BTC up)

That would give people a re-entry too close to the bottom.