CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data shows that the Futures Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge indicator is neutral, with a volume of approximately -1.4 million and a 0.05% increase, coinciding with Bitcoin's price nearing $77,600.

This "neutral" reading is not a random figure; it carries significant weight in the current market context. It indicates that retail investor activity in the futures market is neither excessively high nor significantly low, but rather in a state of equilibrium. In other words, there is no strong surge from retail traders, even though the price is near its highs.

The negative value of -1.4 million suggests a slight decline in high-frequency trading activity by retail participants, or at least a lack of significant speculative momentum. This reinforces the idea that the market is not currently experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out).

The relationship between this value and the price is crucial. Typically, when Bitcoin reaches levels like $77,000, we expect a significant increase in retail activity; however, what we are observing here is relatively the opposite. This could mean that:

The current rally is being driven more by institutions or smart money.

The market has not yet reached a peak driven by retail participants.

There is still room for further upward momentum before reaching saturation.

Conversely, if the value were significantly positive (indicating a strong increase in activity), it would serve as a warning sign of a potential correction.

Written by Arab Chain

The development of the CeFi sector, which represents the set of financial services in the crypto industry operating through a centralized intermediary, has experienced significant expansion since its inception.

CeFi's estimated market capitalisation has expanded nearly tenfold to approximately $60 billion.

This evolution indirectly benefits tokens associated with this type of platform, which are not limited to being simple exchanges.

It is possible to assess investor interest in a token of this category, and therefore in its platform, by analyzing the evolution of transaction activity.

On Nexo, it is clear that token exchange activity has significantly increased over time. In 2023, the average number of transactions was approximately 1,000 to 2,000 transactions per month.

Since late 2025, this figure has risen to between 5,000 and 9,000 monthly transactions, a 3 to 4 times increase.

Looking more closely, the majority of transactions involved between 100 and 10,000 NEXO per transaction. In March 2026, there were 2,300 transactions involving 1,000+ NEXO and 1,700 transactions exceeding 10,000+ NEXO.

This increase in activity may reflect higher speculation on the token over time, but not exclusively. Another factor lies in the utility of holding NEXO for platform users, thanks to the benefits it provides: reduced fees, better borrowing rates, cashback rewards, etc.

In addition, users can also stake the token and earn yields ranging between 3% and 11%, while maintaining exposure to its potential price appreciation.

Overall, a token categorized as CeFi is often intrinsically linked to the development of its underlying platform.

The higher the activity and incentives, the more the overall ecosystem tends to benefit from this dynamic.

Written by Darkfost

In my previous article, “BTC’s Rally Was a Short Squeeze,” I explained that Bitcoin’s April 22 move did not appear to be driven by spot demand, but by an aggressive expansion in futures positioning that pushed price toward $79,447.

The following data reinforces that thesis.

On April 22, BTC reached an intraday high near $79,447 after Open Interest expanded by almost $3B. However, that same day, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive net outflow of -$1.845B.

This is the key point: if price reached its high after a strong futures expansion while spot ETFs were registering aggressive outflows, the move was not cleanly validated by institutional spot demand.

After the high, BTC lost momentum and fell toward $78,200, a decline of about $1,247, or -1.57% from the intraday high. This decline should not be interpreted only as ETF pressure, but as a combination of two forces: spot outflows through ETFs and the closing of futures positions.

Open Interest confirms this second part. OI fell from around $27.56B on April 22 to $26.10B on April 23, a reduction of nearly $1.46B. It then fell again to $25.26B on April 24, another $839M decline, while price moved lower toward the $77,400 area.

By April 25, with incomplete data, OI had only decreased by around $230M and price barely moved, remaining near $77,400. This shows that the strongest price reaction coincided with the largest futures position unwind.

The sequence is clear: futures expanded first, the short squeeze pushed price higher, ETFs recorded a strong net outflow near the final phase of the move, and futures positions then began to close. This double pressure — spot selling and derivatives reducing exposure — better explains why momentum faded and why a larger liquidation cascade did not continue above $79,447.

The conclusion remains intact: the rally was led by futures, not by spot.

By Carmelo AlemánOn-Chain Analyst | CryptoQuant Verified

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

Macro data reveal that the first 57 days of the Hormuz shock caused not only short-term panic, but a total inversion of the market regime. Trading today at $77,502.27 (24h: -0.13% | 7d: +2.49%), Bitcoin attests that the escalation in the Persian Gulf did not trigger distribution, but a lethal asymmetry in risk absorption. The outbreak of the conflict reconfigured the capital flow across three of the largest CEXs in the market, a fact proven by the analysis of the on-chain indicator BTC: Comparative Exchange Netflow (Binance–OKX–Coinbase Aggregated).

DISTRIBUTION

In the 57 days prior to the war (Jan 2 to Feb 27), the on-chain scenario was one of pure distribution. The exchanges registered a combined positive balance of 27,741 BTC. Global retail dominated the deposits: Binance received 13,266 BTC (47.8% of the flow) and OKX 6,778 BTC (24.4%). The unified Coinbase platform also registered significant inflows of 7,697 BTC (27.8%), revealing an active American distribution posture before the shock.

GLOBAL SUPPLY SHOCK

The beginning of the conflict (Feb 28 to Apr 25) triggered a Global Supply Shock. In these 57 days, the flow violently inverted to a brutal outflow of 82,197 BTC. Although panic caused Asia and retail to dump liquidity on critical days, the macro balance was a flight to cold custody. Binance lost 45,450 BTC (55.3% of the outflows) and OKX -28,506 BTC (34.7%). Simultaneously, the consolidated Coinbase operation reverted its pattern and heavily drained the supply, accumulating -8,242 BTC (10% of the entire outflow), buying a global paradigm shift.

CONCLUSION

Today's update (04/25) seals this scenario: Binance has returned to being a retail depository (+158 BTC), accompanied by OKX (+122 BTC); meanwhile, the unified Coinbase operation maintains its drainage profile (-277 BTC). In this analysis, it becomes clear that the blockade of Hormuz was the perfect storm to transfer assets from trembling hands to institutional vaults.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Bitcoin market is currently showing a clear divergence between spot demand and derivatives positioning. On the spot side, ETF inflows have remained strong. Since late February, Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady net inflows of around $1 billion per week, with nine consecutive days of positive flows. On April 24, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $14.45 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs added $23.38 million, confirming continued institutional demand.

This trend is not short-term. Consistent inflows since early April suggest a structural recovery in demand. The Coinbase Premium Index also remains positive, indicating stronger buying pressure from U.S. investors, often linked to institutional activity.

However, derivatives markets show the opposite. Funding rates remain negative, meaning traders are heavily positioned for downside. While institutions are buying, many participants are betting on price declines.

This gap is driven by psychology. After recent volatility, retail traders tend to expect further downside due to recency bias and loss aversion. Leveraged markets make short positions more attractive, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

The key point is that this bearish positioning does not match actual capital flows. Institutions continue to accumulate while sentiment remains weak. This disconnect creates conditions for short squeezes, where rising prices force shorts to cover, accelerating upward moves.

The market is not just moving—it is structurally misaligned.

Written by XWIN Japan

• The market has recovered in the short term, but at the macro level, price action, on-chain data, and derivatives show that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend. The analysis across the three areas is presented in the images.

• The analysis covers: Bitcoin price on the weekly timeframe (including the SMA50 and Anchored VWAPs from the Fourth Halving and the latest ATH), Open Interest on the 3-day timeframe, Realized Cap on the weekly timeframe, NUPL and Supply in Loss.

• I used Japanese candlesticks as the data visualization and analytical method across all the market data analyzed in this post.

Written by _OnChain

On the BTC derivatives side, buying pressure continues to dominate order flow.

The Net Taker Volume, which I have monthly smoothed to capture the real trend, now stands at $145 million.

It is also worth noting that it has remained positive since March 7, nearly two months now.

For those less familiar with this metric, it is an indicator that measures net volume after subtracting sell volume from buy volume executed through the derivatives order books.

Beyond simply showing whether buying or selling pressure is dominant, it also reflects the prevailing sentiment among traders.

During this cycle, every time we moved from heavily dominant selling pressure, and therefore extremely negative sentiment, to renewed buying pressure taking control, price has consistently reacted to the upside.

That is exactly what we have observed since early March.

However, given both the duration and the strong dominance of buy volume, we could expect the current Bitcoin trend to continue for longer, likely allowing price to test the $80,000 target.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s market structure is currently navigating its third "Cooling" phase within the prevailing downtrend, raising the pivotal question: can it finally break through this resistance, or is further downside imminent? While a significant macro rally is often anchored by the conclusion of short-side funding rate collections and subsequent profit-taking—which provides a critical price floor—the current volume map suggests that the road to a full-scale recovery may still be a long one. As trading volume remains a key indicator of the "Distribution Phase," the transition from new entrants back to long-term holders will be the metric to watch before any sustained bullish momentum can be confirmed.

Written by nino

Net Realized Profit and Loss showed very strong positive values in mid 2025. Investors were realizing significant profits, which can also be considered a distribution/top formation phase. Afterwards, NRPL gradually weakened and moved into negative territory. During the sharp decline at the beginning of 2026, loss realization increased noticeably.

In the current picture, NRPL continues with a slightly negative tendency. In other words, there is no large scale profit taking, but aggressive capitulation selling has also subsided. Weak hands in the market have largely been flushed out.

Throughout 2025, NUPL remained above 0.5, but later declined to around 0.2. At present, NUPL is in the ~0.25–0.30 range. This zone is neither cheap nor expensive. Investors are still in profit, but the previous level of confidence is gone.

NRPL indicates that realized selling pressure has ended, while NUPL shows that the market is still in profit but acting cautiously. In other words, there are fewer sellers left, but buyers are not yet taking an active role.

According to the data, investors are currently in a “let it rise a bit more so I can exit” mindset, which leads to selling on rallies.

Since NUPL remains relatively low, the “buy every dip” mentality has not fully kicked in yet.

The fact that NRPL is moving out of negative territory suggests that panic selling has ended and the market is transitioning into a slow recovery phase.

Based on these two metrics, the market is neither in a bear phase nor at a bull market peak it is more in a recovery stage.

At this point, Bitcoin investors are not expecting a major downside, but they also do not fully believe in a strong upside. As a result, they sell into strength and remain cautious when buying dips.

Written by PelinayPA

Small and medium-sized $ETH whales are approaching a profit state.

They are currently in a slight loss state. The whales' loss zone is a historical bottom.

And they are expected to transition to a profit state soon. This is a historical bullish signal.

The point where they transition to profit was the starting point of the rally.

Written by CW8900

The rebound in the $BTC 1-month Realized Cap is beginning.

This indicates that $BTC has broken out of its bottoming pattern and an upward trend has already started.

Due to the recent decline, the indicator fell near the Oversold zone, which was a historical bottoming point.

$BTC has solidified its bottom and is starting to rise again. Several indicators show that a bullish rally is beginning, and the 1-month Realized Cap also shows the same data.

Written by CW8900

On April 4 and 5, 2026, the Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) network witnessed a staggering anomaly. The Total Transaction Count on the Ethereum network skyrocketed to over 1.04 million, massively deviating from its historical baseline of 25,000 to 60,000 daily transactions.

This explosive surge directly coincides with a major fundamental event: the April 3-4 introduction of “cirBTC” by Circle. Promoted as a new institutional-grade wrapped Bitcoin backed 1:1 by actual BTC, cirBTC emerged as a formidable, direct competitor to the long-dominant WBTC.

Since WBTC’s price remained relatively stable during this window (hovering around 67𝑘 𝑡𝑜 68k), this massive on-chain activity was not driven by price volatility. Instead, the timing points to two highly probable scenarios:

Institutional Liquidity Migration: Market makers and institutional players may have executed massive portfolio rebalancing or smart contract tests in response to the new market entrant, shifting liquidity to prepare for cirBTC pairs.

Defensive DeFi Repositioning: Coinciding with WBTC’s April security upgrades and new vault campaigns, DeFi protocols may have executed structural reorganizations. This could be a defensive liquidity maneuver designed to retain WBTC dominance and prevent capital flight toward Circle’s new alternative.

While the price action was quiet, this on-chain metric highlights a fierce, underlying battle for the wrapped Bitcoin market share. Investors should closely monitor WBTC exchange flows and reserve metrics in the coming weeks to determine if this transaction surge was a defensive consolidation or the beginning of a market share loss to cirBTC.

Written by CryptoOnchain

In 2020–2022, the 100–1,000 BTC cohort (excluding CEX and miner addresses) saw daily outflows above 6M, peaking near 12M. That was the largest sustained mid-tier distribution event in Bitcoin's recorded history.

In the current cycle, with price past $120K, roughly double the 2021 peak, the same cohort has stayed under 1M daily for the bulk of the rally. Even though there was a drawdown from the 2025 high, the distribution print never arrived. The wallets that historically led every cycle-top distribution did not show up this time.

Two readings carry weight.

Structural conviction. Survivors of the 2022 drawdown have shown they will not sell into strength. ETF demand, sovereign accumulation, and corporate treasury buying absorbed supply at the institutional layer without forcing legacy holders to redistribute.

Channel migration.** A 500 BTC holder in 2025 has options that did not exist at scale in 2021 OTC desks, in-kind ETF flows, and authorized participant arbitrage can move size without producing visible exchange outflow. Some distribution may have moved through channels this metric does not capture.

Both forces are likely at work.

What to watch: a return of the 100–1,000 BTC cohort to multi-million daily outflows would be the cleanest top-of-cycle warning still available. Until that signature reappears, dominant cohort behavior is hold, not sell even through deep corrections.

For the complete read, pair cohort outflow with exchange netflow, ETF flows, and stablecoin supply.

Written by Zakariya Sharif

Bitcoin’s technical structure currently indicates the formation of a Bearish Flag pattern. Significantly, this marks the second bearish flag structure to develop since October 2025. The upward price action observed over the last few days appears to be nothing more than a retest of the flag’s upper trendline (resistance), rather than a genuine bullish reversal.

A deep dive into on-chain metrics strongly corroborates this bearish technical outlook. Firstly, the number of Bitcoin Active Addresses has plummeted to its lowest level since 2019. This drastic decline highlights a severe lack of retail demand and overall network participation.

Moreover, the Binance Exchange Whale Ratio is flashing a major warning signal. According to CryptoQuant’s definition:

Whale Ratio = (Sum of Top 10 Exchange Inflows / Total Exchange Inflows) * 100

This specific metric has just hit its highest value recorded since 2019. A significantly elevated Whale Ratio demonstrates that major holders (whales) are depositing massive volumes of Bitcoin into the exchange. Historically, such behavior strongly suggests that whales are preparing to sell, which introduces a high probability of intense selling pressure and further downward momentum for Bitcoin in the near term.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Yesterday, there was no big change in price.

1️⃣ But we saw a big downward spike in STH-SOPR. This means "selling at a loss" or "moving coins at a loss."

2️⃣ When we open the UTXO Price Histogram next to STH-SOPR, we can see this: until yesterday, there was a huge UTXO tower at $89,250. Let’s call this roughly $90,000. Today, this huge tower is no longer there. Instead, a huge UTXO tower has formed at $78,200.

✅ So, someone moved coins yesterday when the price was $78,200. These coins were probably bought around $90,000 in the last 6 months.

⚠️ Of course, this may be a transfer between the same person’s own wallets. It may be an exchange internal transfer. Or it may be a transfer by institutions such as market makers that provide liquidity.

✅ But it may also be this: an investor who bought at $90,000 sold at a loss at $78,200. And the buyer’s cost basis became $78,200.

If this was a trade between different people, then we can say this:

👉🏻 The resistance at $90,000 became weaker.

👉🏻 The support/resistance level at $78,200 became stronger.

I last looked at the UTXO Price Histogram in January, when the price was around $100K. At that time, I pointed to the air pocket between $80K and $73K. I also pointed to the risk that price could fall into this area.

Now, we can see that the air pocket I pointed to has been filled.

Take a look: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/697e05819a2bb639680e06e9-Bitcoins-73K80K-Air-Pocket-The-Next-Big-Risk-Zone

Written by CryptoMe

This suggests that over the past 3 months, active spot buying has started to outweigh active selling.

Buyers are gradually regaining control, spot sell pressure is cooling down, and real demand is improving — not just futures-driven volatility.

Still, this is not an immediate breakout confirmation.

If buying pressure continues, it could support the next leg higher. If not, BTC may remain sideways.

Written by Rei Researcher

• The market has recovered in the short term, but at the macro level, price action, on-chain data, and derivatives show that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend. The analysis across the three areas is presented in the images.

• The analysis covers: Bitcoin price on the weekly timeframe (including the SMA50 and Anchored VWAPs from the Fourth Halving and the latest ATH), Open Interest on the 3-day timeframe, Realized Cap on the weekly timeframe, NUPL and Supply in Loss.

Written by _OnChain

In the current derivatives landscape, pessimism regarding XRP is evident: the XRP Ledger: Funding Rates - Binance has hit a negative level of -0.00292847, signaling that sellers (shorters) are dominating the narrative and paying premiums to maintain their positions. This selling bias is reinforced by the XRP Ledger: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance at 0.9723, while the price consolidates in the $1.4394 region, with a 3.34% weekly retraction.

SHORT SQUEEZE

Technically, this excess of leveraged short positions creates the ideal environment for a Short Squeeze. As a backdrop, the XRPL: Speculation-to-Utility Ratio at 1.3827, sustained by an On-Chain Settlement Volume (XRP) of 298.15M, ensures that the network maintains a solid base of real utility. Should the price break local resistances, the lack of spot liquidity will force a cascading closure of futures contracts (Shorts), propelling the asset in a parabolic manner.

INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION

In the final analysis, the XRP Ledger today exhibits a rare technical setup that defies this market sentiment through aggressive accumulation by large players. The absolute highlight lies in the XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance, which recorded a net outflow of -7.7854M XRP in the last 24 hours, drastically exceeding the 30-day moving average (XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance-SMA(30) of -1.1536M). Although the XRP Ledger: Whale to Exchange Transactions - Binance indicator jumped to 3,049 transactions — well above the SMA-7 average (751) — the final negative balance confirms that the magnitude of the institutional outflow is prioritizing cold custody, signaling accumulation.

Written by GugaOnChain

The XRP Ledger today exhibits a rare technical setup that defies current market sentiment. While the price consolidates in the $1.4394 region, with a 3.34% weekly retraction, flow data suggests aggressive accumulation by large players. The absolute highlight lies in the XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance, which recorded a net outflow of -7.7854M XRP in the last 24 hours. This movement drastically exceeds the 30-day moving average (XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance-SMA(30) of -1.1536M), evidencing an accelerated drain of the supply available on the exchange.

SELLING BIAS

Although the XRP Ledger: Whale to Exchange Transactions - Binance indicator has jumped to 3,049 transactions — well above the SMA-7 average (751) — the final negative balance confirms that institutional flow is prioritizing cold custody. In the derivatives scenario, pessimism is evident: the XRP Ledger: Funding Rates - Binance reached the negative level of -0.00292847, signaling that sellers (shorters) are dominating the narrative and paying to maintain their positions. The selling bias is reinforced by the XRP Ledger: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance at 0.9723.

SHORT SQUEEZE

In the final analysis, as a backdrop, the XRPL: Speculation-to-Utility Ratio at 1.3827, sustained by an On-Chain Settlement Volume (XRP) of 298.15M, ensures that the network maintains a solid base of real utility. Technically, the convergence between the sharply declining supply on Binance and the excess of leveraged short positions creates the ideal environment for a Short Squeeze. Should the price break local resistances, the lack of spot liquidity will force a cascading closure of futures contracts (Shorts), propelling the asset in a parabolic manner.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Bitcoin market is currently showing a strong increase in bearish positioning. This is clearly visible in derivatives data.

According to CryptoQuant analyst G a a h (@gaah_im), Funding rates, which reflect the balance between long and short positions, have dropped into deeply negative territory. This means more traders are betting on price declines, and importantly, they are paying to maintain those short positions. In other words, the market is not just bearish — it is confidently bearish.

At the same time, open interest (OI) is rising. OI represents the total number of outstanding positions that have not yet been closed. When OI increases, it means more capital is being committed to active bets in the market.

What matters here is the composition of those bets. Since funding rates are negative, the growing OI is largely driven by short positions. This creates a structure where the market is increasingly positioned for further downside.

However, this setup carries a critical implication. Short positions must eventually be closed, and if price begins to rise, these traders are forced to buy back, creating upward pressure. This is known as a short squeeze.

Historically, periods of extremely negative funding have often preceded sharp upward moves, not continued declines. That said, this does not guarantee an immediate bullish trend. Rather, it signals a buildup of latent energy that can lead to increased volatility.

In essence, the market is in a phase of extreme pessimism while simultaneously accumulating the conditions for a potential rebound.

Written by XWIN Japan