CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin’s market structure is currently navigating its third "Cooling" phase within the prevailing downtrend, raising the pivotal question: can it finally break through this resistance, or is further downside imminent? While a significant macro rally is often anchored by the conclusion of short-side funding rate collections and subsequent profit-taking—which provides a critical price floor—the current volume map suggests that the road to a full-scale recovery may still be a long one. As trading volume remains a key indicator of the "Distribution Phase," the transition from new entrants back to long-term holders will be the metric to watch before any sustained bullish momentum can be confirmed.

Written by nino

Net Realized Profit and Loss showed very strong positive values in mid 2025. Investors were realizing significant profits, which can also be considered a distribution/top formation phase. Afterwards, NRPL gradually weakened and moved into negative territory. During the sharp decline at the beginning of 2026, loss realization increased noticeably.

In the current picture, NRPL continues with a slightly negative tendency. In other words, there is no large scale profit taking, but aggressive capitulation selling has also subsided. Weak hands in the market have largely been flushed out.

Throughout 2025, NUPL remained above 0.5, but later declined to around 0.2. At present, NUPL is in the ~0.25–0.30 range. This zone is neither cheap nor expensive. Investors are still in profit, but the previous level of confidence is gone.

NRPL indicates that realized selling pressure has ended, while NUPL shows that the market is still in profit but acting cautiously. In other words, there are fewer sellers left, but buyers are not yet taking an active role.

According to the data, investors are currently in a “let it rise a bit more so I can exit” mindset, which leads to selling on rallies.

Since NUPL remains relatively low, the “buy every dip” mentality has not fully kicked in yet.

The fact that NRPL is moving out of negative territory suggests that panic selling has ended and the market is transitioning into a slow recovery phase.

Based on these two metrics, the market is neither in a bear phase nor at a bull market peak it is more in a recovery stage.

At this point, Bitcoin investors are not expecting a major downside, but they also do not fully believe in a strong upside. As a result, they sell into strength and remain cautious when buying dips.

Written by PelinayPA

Small and medium-sized $ETH whales are approaching a profit state.

They are currently in a slight loss state. The whales' loss zone is a historical bottom.

And they are expected to transition to a profit state soon. This is a historical bullish signal.

The point where they transition to profit was the starting point of the rally.

Written by CW8900

The rebound in the $BTC 1-month Realized Cap is beginning.

This indicates that $BTC has broken out of its bottoming pattern and an upward trend has already started.

Due to the recent decline, the indicator fell near the Oversold zone, which was a historical bottoming point.

$BTC has solidified its bottom and is starting to rise again. Several indicators show that a bullish rally is beginning, and the 1-month Realized Cap also shows the same data.

Written by CW8900

On April 4 and 5, 2026, the Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) network witnessed a staggering anomaly. The Total Transaction Count on the Ethereum network skyrocketed to over 1.04 million, massively deviating from its historical baseline of 25,000 to 60,000 daily transactions.

This explosive surge directly coincides with a major fundamental event: the April 3-4 introduction of “cirBTC” by Circle. Promoted as a new institutional-grade wrapped Bitcoin backed 1:1 by actual BTC, cirBTC emerged as a formidable, direct competitor to the long-dominant WBTC.

Since WBTC’s price remained relatively stable during this window (hovering around 67𝑘 𝑡𝑜 68k), this massive on-chain activity was not driven by price volatility. Instead, the timing points to two highly probable scenarios:

Institutional Liquidity Migration: Market makers and institutional players may have executed massive portfolio rebalancing or smart contract tests in response to the new market entrant, shifting liquidity to prepare for cirBTC pairs.

Defensive DeFi Repositioning: Coinciding with WBTC’s April security upgrades and new vault campaigns, DeFi protocols may have executed structural reorganizations. This could be a defensive liquidity maneuver designed to retain WBTC dominance and prevent capital flight toward Circle’s new alternative.

While the price action was quiet, this on-chain metric highlights a fierce, underlying battle for the wrapped Bitcoin market share. Investors should closely monitor WBTC exchange flows and reserve metrics in the coming weeks to determine if this transaction surge was a defensive consolidation or the beginning of a market share loss to cirBTC.

Written by CryptoOnchain

In 2020–2022, the 100–1,000 BTC cohort (excluding CEX and miner addresses) saw daily outflows above 6M, peaking near 12M. That was the largest sustained mid-tier distribution event in Bitcoin's recorded history.

In the current cycle, with price past $120K, roughly double the 2021 peak, the same cohort has stayed under 1M daily for the bulk of the rally. Even though there was a drawdown from the 2025 high, the distribution print never arrived. The wallets that historically led every cycle-top distribution did not show up this time.

Two readings carry weight.

Structural conviction. Survivors of the 2022 drawdown have shown they will not sell into strength. ETF demand, sovereign accumulation, and corporate treasury buying absorbed supply at the institutional layer without forcing legacy holders to redistribute.

Channel migration.** A 500 BTC holder in 2025 has options that did not exist at scale in 2021 OTC desks, in-kind ETF flows, and authorized participant arbitrage can move size without producing visible exchange outflow. Some distribution may have moved through channels this metric does not capture.

Both forces are likely at work.

What to watch: a return of the 100–1,000 BTC cohort to multi-million daily outflows would be the cleanest top-of-cycle warning still available. Until that signature reappears, dominant cohort behavior is hold, not sell even through deep corrections.

For the complete read, pair cohort outflow with exchange netflow, ETF flows, and stablecoin supply.

Written by Zakariya Sharif

Bitcoin’s technical structure currently indicates the formation of a Bearish Flag pattern. Significantly, this marks the second bearish flag structure to develop since October 2025. The upward price action observed over the last few days appears to be nothing more than a retest of the flag’s upper trendline (resistance), rather than a genuine bullish reversal.

A deep dive into on-chain metrics strongly corroborates this bearish technical outlook. Firstly, the number of Bitcoin Active Addresses has plummeted to its lowest level since 2019. This drastic decline highlights a severe lack of retail demand and overall network participation.

Moreover, the Binance Exchange Whale Ratio is flashing a major warning signal. According to CryptoQuant’s definition:

Whale Ratio = (Sum of Top 10 Exchange Inflows / Total Exchange Inflows) * 100

This specific metric has just hit its highest value recorded since 2019. A significantly elevated Whale Ratio demonstrates that major holders (whales) are depositing massive volumes of Bitcoin into the exchange. Historically, such behavior strongly suggests that whales are preparing to sell, which introduces a high probability of intense selling pressure and further downward momentum for Bitcoin in the near term.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Yesterday, there was no big change in price.

1️⃣ But we saw a big downward spike in STH-SOPR. This means "selling at a loss" or "moving coins at a loss."

2️⃣ When we open the UTXO Price Histogram next to STH-SOPR, we can see this: until yesterday, there was a huge UTXO tower at $89,250. Let’s call this roughly $90,000. Today, this huge tower is no longer there. Instead, a huge UTXO tower has formed at $78,200.

✅ So, someone moved coins yesterday when the price was $78,200. These coins were probably bought around $90,000 in the last 6 months.

⚠️ Of course, this may be a transfer between the same person’s own wallets. It may be an exchange internal transfer. Or it may be a transfer by institutions such as market makers that provide liquidity.

✅ But it may also be this: an investor who bought at $90,000 sold at a loss at $78,200. And the buyer’s cost basis became $78,200.

If this was a trade between different people, then we can say this:

👉🏻 The resistance at $90,000 became weaker.

👉🏻 The support/resistance level at $78,200 became stronger.

I last looked at the UTXO Price Histogram in January, when the price was around $100K. At that time, I pointed to the air pocket between $80K and $73K. I also pointed to the risk that price could fall into this area.

Now, we can see that the air pocket I pointed to has been filled.

Take a look: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/697e05819a2bb639680e06e9-Bitcoins-73K80K-Air-Pocket-The-Next-Big-Risk-Zone

Written by CryptoMe

This suggests that over the past 3 months, active spot buying has started to outweigh active selling.

Buyers are gradually regaining control, spot sell pressure is cooling down, and real demand is improving — not just futures-driven volatility.

Still, this is not an immediate breakout confirmation.

If buying pressure continues, it could support the next leg higher. If not, BTC may remain sideways.

Written by Rei Researcher

• The market has recovered in the short term, but at the macro level, price action, on-chain data, and derivatives show that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend. The analysis across the three areas is presented in the images.

• The analysis covers: Bitcoin price on the weekly timeframe (including the SMA50 and Anchored VWAPs from the Fourth Halving and the latest ATH), Open Interest on the 3-day timeframe, Realized Cap on the weekly timeframe, NUPL and Supply in Loss.

Written by _OnChain

In the current derivatives landscape, pessimism regarding XRP is evident: the XRP Ledger: Funding Rates - Binance has hit a negative level of -0.00292847, signaling that sellers (shorters) are dominating the narrative and paying premiums to maintain their positions. This selling bias is reinforced by the XRP Ledger: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance at 0.9723, while the price consolidates in the $1.4394 region, with a 3.34% weekly retraction.

SHORT SQUEEZE

Technically, this excess of leveraged short positions creates the ideal environment for a Short Squeeze. As a backdrop, the XRPL: Speculation-to-Utility Ratio at 1.3827, sustained by an On-Chain Settlement Volume (XRP) of 298.15M, ensures that the network maintains a solid base of real utility. Should the price break local resistances, the lack of spot liquidity will force a cascading closure of futures contracts (Shorts), propelling the asset in a parabolic manner.

INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION

In the final analysis, the XRP Ledger today exhibits a rare technical setup that defies this market sentiment through aggressive accumulation by large players. The absolute highlight lies in the XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance, which recorded a net outflow of -7.7854M XRP in the last 24 hours, drastically exceeding the 30-day moving average (XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance-SMA(30) of -1.1536M). Although the XRP Ledger: Whale to Exchange Transactions - Binance indicator jumped to 3,049 transactions — well above the SMA-7 average (751) — the final negative balance confirms that the magnitude of the institutional outflow is prioritizing cold custody, signaling accumulation.

Written by GugaOnChain

The XRP Ledger today exhibits a rare technical setup that defies current market sentiment. While the price consolidates in the $1.4394 region, with a 3.34% weekly retraction, flow data suggests aggressive accumulation by large players. The absolute highlight lies in the XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance, which recorded a net outflow of -7.7854M XRP in the last 24 hours. This movement drastically exceeds the 30-day moving average (XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance-SMA(30) of -1.1536M), evidencing an accelerated drain of the supply available on the exchange.

SELLING BIAS

Although the XRP Ledger: Whale to Exchange Transactions - Binance indicator has jumped to 3,049 transactions — well above the SMA-7 average (751) — the final negative balance confirms that institutional flow is prioritizing cold custody. In the derivatives scenario, pessimism is evident: the XRP Ledger: Funding Rates - Binance reached the negative level of -0.00292847, signaling that sellers (shorters) are dominating the narrative and paying to maintain their positions. The selling bias is reinforced by the XRP Ledger: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance at 0.9723.

SHORT SQUEEZE

In the final analysis, as a backdrop, the XRPL: Speculation-to-Utility Ratio at 1.3827, sustained by an On-Chain Settlement Volume (XRP) of 298.15M, ensures that the network maintains a solid base of real utility. Technically, the convergence between the sharply declining supply on Binance and the excess of leveraged short positions creates the ideal environment for a Short Squeeze. Should the price break local resistances, the lack of spot liquidity will force a cascading closure of futures contracts (Shorts), propelling the asset in a parabolic manner.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Bitcoin market is currently showing a strong increase in bearish positioning. This is clearly visible in derivatives data.

According to CryptoQuant analyst G a a h (@gaah_im), Funding rates, which reflect the balance between long and short positions, have dropped into deeply negative territory. This means more traders are betting on price declines, and importantly, they are paying to maintain those short positions. In other words, the market is not just bearish — it is confidently bearish.

At the same time, open interest (OI) is rising. OI represents the total number of outstanding positions that have not yet been closed. When OI increases, it means more capital is being committed to active bets in the market.

What matters here is the composition of those bets. Since funding rates are negative, the growing OI is largely driven by short positions. This creates a structure where the market is increasingly positioned for further downside.

However, this setup carries a critical implication. Short positions must eventually be closed, and if price begins to rise, these traders are forced to buy back, creating upward pressure. This is known as a short squeeze.

Historically, periods of extremely negative funding have often preceded sharp upward moves, not continued declines. That said, this does not guarantee an immediate bullish trend. Rather, it signals a buildup of latent energy that can lead to increased volatility.

In essence, the market is in a phase of extreme pessimism while simultaneously accumulating the conditions for a potential rebound.

Written by XWIN Japan

The Bitcoin market is currently showing a clear shift toward bearish positioning, and this is most visible in derivatives data. Funding rates have dropped into deeply negative territory, meaning more traders are betting on price declines. In perpetual futures, funding reflects the balance between long and short positions. When it is negative, short traders are not only dominant but are also paying to maintain those positions. This suggests a strong conviction that prices will fall.

At the same time, open interest (OI) is rising. OI measures the total number of open, unsettled positions in the market. In simple terms, it shows how much “active betting” is taking place. When OI increases, it indicates that more positions are being added and leverage is building.

What makes the current setup unique is the combination of rising OI and negative funding. This implies that the increase in positions is largely driven by shorts, not longs. The market is not just bearish in sentiment—it is structurally positioned for further downside.

However, this creates a paradox. When too many traders are positioned in one direction, the market becomes vulnerable to moves in the opposite direction. Short positions must eventually be closed by buying back, especially if prices start to rise. This can trigger a chain reaction known as a short squeeze, where forced buying accelerates upward price movement.

Historically, extreme negative funding has often preceded sharp rallies rather than continued declines. It signals not just pessimism, but overcrowded positioning. While this does not guarantee an immediate uptrend, it does mean that volatility is likely to increase as these positions unwind.

In conclusion, the market is currently defined by excessive bearish positioning, but also by the buildup of potential rebound energy. The key factors to watch are spot demand, normalization of funding rates, and whether OI shifts from short-dominated to more balanced positioning.

Written by XWIN Japan

• The market has recovered in the short term, but at the macro level, price action, on-chain data, and derivatives show that we are still in a downtrend. The analysis across the three areas is presented in the images.

• The analysis includes: Bitcoin price on the weekly timeframe (including the SMA50 and Anchored VWAPs from the Fourth Halving and the latest ATH), Open Interest on the 3-day timeframe, Realized Cap on the weekly timeframe, NUPL and Supply in Loss.

• I used Japanese candlesticks as a method to represent all the market data analyzed in this post.

• The objective of doing this is to use the same data visualization method across different areas, thereby unifying the analytical framework to seek cross-domain confluence.

• If you would like to learn more about this topic, I invite you to read the technical dashboard I developed on this subject. It includes the history of Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links included).

• The dashboard demonstrates, through empirical examples, for the first time that Japanese charting methods, with more than 200 years of history and part of the CMT body of knowledge, a designation recognized by FINRA and the SEC, are applied directly to many professional indicators (on-chain and derivatives) and can be used for trading.

Written by _OnChain

We begin this analysis with price action. With Bitcoin trading at US$ 78,369 and printing a Long Leg Doji on the daily time frame, we observe a candle pattern with long shadows indicating a strong tug-of-war and a balance of forces. This indecision is validated by the anemic volume (7.78K BTC against the SMA-20 of 16.94K). When we move to on-chain data, the Bitcoin: Fear And Greed Index registers 39 (Fear), a sentiment that masks a formidable capital exchange behind the scenes.

INSTITUTIONAL SHIELDING

The Bitcoin: Global Network Accumulation vs. Distribution by All Cohorts (30D) indicator exposes the dynamic: mega-whales (>10K BTC) distributed -25.51K BTC. However, this liquidity was swallowed by smart money. Sharks (100-1K BTC) absorbed +37.92K BTC, which added to the 1K-10K BTC cohort (+9.57K BTC), create a strong institutional price shielding.

SELLING PRESSURE

The Bitcoin: Exchange Whale Ratio - All Exchanges stands at 61.89%, within a moderate alert zone (0.5 to 0.7). Warding off the risk of a massive dump, the [BTC] - Binance Whale to Exchange Flow for the 100 to 10K BTC cohorts struck 0 BTC of inflow in 24h. Consequently, there is no spot selling pressure at the market's leading exchange.

CONCLUSION AND ACCUMULATION

Retention shines in derivatives: the Bitcoin: Open Interest - All Exchanges, All Symbol spiked 10.43% against the SMA-30, reaching US$ 25.98 Billion. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve - All Exchanges reveals a 0.96% retreat in stocks over 30 days (recording 2.66M BTC). Adding this decline to the miners' inertia (MPI at -0.50) and the Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Gap (23.84) revealing slight buying pressure in the US, it proves that the graphical exhaustion is illusory. Capital is accumulating.

Written by GugaOnChain

Looking at CryptoQuant’s Stablecoin Reserve chart, reserves have climbed from around ~$42B to $48.1B, showing that stablecoin capital is flowing back onto the exchange. For stablecoins, a rising reserve usually signals that potential buyers already have funds positioned on the exchange and are ready to deploy.

Current reserves are now approaching the previous high near $50B. This suggests liquidity on Binance is building again, especially while the market is still moving sideways / consolidating.

If BTC can maintain its current price structure, this pool of stablecoins could become fuel for the next leg higher — or trigger rotation into altcoins.

Binance now has more “dry powder.”

This is a positive liquidity signal that should not be ignored.

Written by Rei Researcher

Binance XRP outflows are once again being dominated by larger holders, with whale outflow dominance rising to 94.4% while retail share has fallen to just 5.5%.

That puts the current structure close to the same levels seen in October 2024 and June 2025.

The setup matters because those earlier readings were followed by strong XRP price advances.

After similar levels were recorded in October 2024, XRP surged by more than 525% a short time later. Following a comparable reading in June 2025, XRP then gained another 71%.

In other words, Binance XRP outflow activity is once again being led overwhelmingly by larger-sized transfers rather than small retail-sized moves.

Historically, returns to these kinds of levels have marked periods when XRP outflows on Binance became heavily concentrated in larger hands.

The latest reading suggests that pattern has now reappeared, with whale-sized transfers again accounting for nearly all outflow value.

Written by Amr Taha

The key difference in this movement is that Funding Rates are currently in negative territory while Open Interest is on rise, unlike in October 2025.

Sentiment is bearish and the market is increasing bets on further declines in BTC prices.

Any apparent demand in the market could put these positions in a difficult and squeezed situation.

Written by G a a h

The provided chart illustrates a significant and steady increase in the SHIBA INU (SHIB) Exchange Reserve on Binance. As indicated by the purple line, the reserve has been on a continuous upward trajectory since mid-March, recently hitting a massive peak of 61.8 Trillion tokens.

In on-chain analysis, a rising exchange reserve is traditionally interpreted as a cautionary, potentially bearish signal. It suggests that investors are migrating their SHIB holdings from cold storage or private wallets onto the exchange. This behavior is heavily correlated with a high probability of impending sell-offs or profit-taking.

While the SHIB price (black line) has shown volatility and occasional upward spikes during this period, the sheer volume of tokens accumulating on Binance could act as a strong overhead resistance against future bullish rallies. Traders should exercise strict risk management, as any significant liquidation from this 61.8T stockpile could trigger heightened market volatility or a short-term price correction.

Written by CryptoOnchain