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What should we expect in the new week on $BTC and $ETH? ---------------------- $BTC ---------------------- As I said in yesterday's texts, Bitcoin, which could not hold at $64,000, fell sharply overnight and is currently trying to hold at $62,000. If we don't see a rise to around $64,000 again in a short time, it seems quite possible that we will see a drop to $59,000 again. The most dangerous situation would be a break of this $59,000 level, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon. I definitely do not expect the price to make a new ATH again in June-July-August. I think the price will move in the $59,000-$64,000 band in these 3 months and I make my trading plans accordingly. In the short term, BTC should definitely not lose the $62,300 level if it does not want to fall to $59,000. Also, it's important to remember that EMAs act like a magnet and the price constantly fluctuates around it. A support from the 200-day EMA towards the end of the summer could take the price upwards very quickly. At the moment, this EMA price is hovering around $52,000, but I would say that it will go up in time. Also, if we look at the daily chart, it's hard not to see a really unpleasant series of red candles. These 4 red candles, which are getting harder and harder, could be a harbinger of a sharp decline. However, I would expect a rebound after this sharp decline. So I will enter long orders around $59,000. ----------------------$ $ETH ---------------------- I continue to hold my short position on the ETH side as I shared below. The reason why I have not closed this position yet is because I am waiting for the news of the rejection of the ETH ETF. At the moment, people are taking positions based on their expectations and my expectation for Ethereum is that the ETF will be rejected in May. In the long run, I think the ETH ETF will definitely be approved, but as Justin Sun shared, it's still early days. On the ETH side, I think we will see below $3,000 in May and that is my plan.

What should we expect in the new week on $BTC and $ETH?

----------------------

$BTC

----------------------

As I said in yesterday's texts, Bitcoin, which could not hold at $64,000, fell sharply overnight and is currently trying to hold at $62,000.

If we don't see a rise to around $64,000 again in a short time, it seems quite possible that we will see a drop to $59,000 again.

The most dangerous situation would be a break of this $59,000 level, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon.

I definitely do not expect the price to make a new ATH again in June-July-August. I think the price will move in the $59,000-$64,000 band in these 3 months and I make my trading plans accordingly.

In the short term, BTC should definitely not lose the $62,300 level if it does not want to fall to $59,000.

Also, it's important to remember that EMAs act like a magnet and the price constantly fluctuates around it. A support from the 200-day EMA towards the end of the summer could take the price upwards very quickly. At the moment, this EMA price is hovering around $52,000, but I would say that it will go up in time.

Also, if we look at the daily chart, it's hard not to see a really unpleasant series of red candles. These 4 red candles, which are getting harder and harder, could be a harbinger of a sharp decline. However, I would expect a rebound after this sharp decline. So I will enter long orders around $59,000.

----------------------$

$ETH

----------------------

I continue to hold my short position on the ETH side as I shared below. The reason why I have not closed this position yet is because I am waiting for the news of the rejection of the ETH ETF.

At the moment, people are taking positions based on their expectations and my expectation for Ethereum is that the ETF will be rejected in May.

In the long run, I think the ETH ETF will definitely be approved, but as Justin Sun shared, it's still early days.

On the ETH side, I think we will see below $3,000 in May and that is my plan.

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What do I expect in the short term on $BTC? ------------------------------ Last week, both the stock market and the crypto market rallied nicely on the back of good macro news. BTC pushed through the $64,500 resistance but failed to break through it. In my previous articles, I wrote that it could get support from the downtrend again, and this is exactly what happened and it managed to rise from $63,300 to $64,000 again. Where I am now is really critical because we are slowly approaching the point where $BTC traders need to make a decision. I mentioned that with the arrival of May there will be a drop in volume and unfortunately the volume of the current rallies is not as high as in the past. Therefore, if hard sellers come into the market, buyers may not be able to absorb them, which could cause the price to crash hard. I certainly don't expect these sharp declines in the first half of May, but I can say that many crypto traders and investors are in for a tough time as the volume drops towards the end of May. The summer season will be challenging for many traders because traders will be constantly competing with each other as volume drops. If you are an investor, I think there is nothing to worry about and it makes sense to keep buying and growing your bag. However, if you are not an experienced trader, there is a good chance that you will be out of the game this summer. If you can patiently make it through the summer without succumbing to greed, I expect worldwide liquidity to shift towards crypto in the fall and a sharp rally to follow. Right now, the $64,500 resistance is critical, and if Bitcoin crosses it, we could see a move to $67,000. Also, our support points are at $59,000 on the daily chart. It's decision time for Bitcoin, so what will you do, long or short?
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The Coins I'm Following on Binance -------------------------- $TON TON coin is the main coin of Tonchain owned by Telegram. Similar to ETH or SOL, you need TON to use dApps on its network. The TON project continuously strengthens its project by collaborating with different projects and aims to reach more people. $REZ If we say that Renzo is one of the most talked-about Binance Launchpool projects in recent days, we wouldn't be wrong! Renzo Project allows you to re-stake your ETH and rewards you with yield and points in return. If you've re-staked ETH here, you probably received the REZ airdrop. Re-staking projects are indeed important within the Ethereum ecosystem, and Renzo is definitely one of those significant projects. $ETH There's hardly anyone among us who doesn't know about the Ethereum project, but I'd still like to briefly touch upon it. Ethereum is essentially a universal computer. Just like a regular computer, it hosts various applications like Uniswap, Curve Finance, and more. Using these financial applications, you can do much more on Ethereum than you can in a bank. ETH coin is the main coin of this Ethereum project, and you need ETH to transact on Ethereum. This is what makes ETH valuable—the necessity! Additionally, by staking your ETH, you can earn yield and contribute to the security of the Ethereum network. SOL Solana, akin to Ethereum, is a Layer1 project with built-in applications. Its standout features are speed and low fees compared to Ethereum, leading to its popularity. The surge in meme coin activity has notably boosted activity on the Solana network, elevating SOL's value. Like ETH, SOL is the primary coin for transactions on the Solana network, making it essential for users. $BTC I'd be remiss not to mention Bitcoin among the projects I'm tracking! Bitcoin is a borderless blockchain enabling fast, low-fee money transfers with its main coin, BTC. Its supply is capped at 21 million, making it a sought-after investment, with even countries and large companies getting involved. #CryptoWatchMay2024
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How did I evaluate the rapid rise I expected? ------------------------------ For 2 days, as I mentioned in my articles, I was expecting a short-term bullish period and that's why I had an ETH long position. With this rapid rise, I closed my $ETH long position with a profit and now I have opened new positions. (I will be indicating my positions at the end of my article.) Thanks to this short-term rise, it is a relief that I will not be carrying a long position in May. This uptrend may continue for a while, but I expect a continued downtrend in Q2 and the summer season. At the moment, the macro data looks very favorable for the crypto market to rise, but it will take some time for the liquidity in this macro market to shift to crypto. I predict that the right time for this liquidity shift will be in the fall and I will be holding my short positions until then. (Position spolier alert!) If there are other events in the summer, I can update my portfolio accordingly, but for now, this is the macro picture. I'm tracking BTC as below and I'm constantly adding shorts at $62,000. I don't think the BTC price will cross $64,000 anytime soon, and even if it does, I think it will fall below it quickly. I think Bitcoin needs a rest in Q2, after some momentum in Q3 I think the real rally will happen in Q4 or Q1 2025. ETH has a similar scenario. I have written many times that I don't expect the ETH ETF to be approved in Q2 and I want to mention it again. Therefore, I will prepare myself for this expectation by continuously adding shorts in the $3,000-$3,300 range. I think Ethereum will ATH this year or next year, but I continue to expect a short-term bearish Q2 and I am positioning accordingly. ------------------ My Positions ------------------ 1) ETH - Short: I have mentioned the reason many times and I think we are in a nice short area right now. If the price goes up, I will increase my position. 2) $BTC - Short: I expect a general crypto decline in Q2.
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