$BTC is trading below its 200-week average (~67,760, weekly closes). 4H RSI sits at 18. Oversold, but bounces into broken levels are where sellers tend to reload.
Trend: Bearish (4H)
🎯 Entry short: 68,200 – 68,800 (limit on a bounce; valid to Nov 16, 00:00 UTC)
✅ TP1: 66,500
✅ TP2: 65,300
✅ TP3: 62,500
🛑 SL: 70,600
📊 Logic:
• Nov 13's 4H closes: 68,314-69,318. Entry is the base of that shelf, above the 200W line. SL sits above the 70,214 PPI wick.
• Price is under all 4H EMAs. OI -7% in 24h, funding flat: longs were flushed, shorts aren't crowded yet.
• Macro: October PPI +6.5% y/y. Dec 9 hike odds near 90% (CME FedWatch). $1.3B+ liquidated as BTC broke 68K.
• Risk: at RSI 18, shorts can get squeezed. 65,250 (6 daily touches) may hold, so TP3 needs a break. Small size.
⚠️ Invalidation: a 4H close above 70,600. If 65,300 prints before a fill, skip.
$BTC back at 68,500: SELL or BUY? Drop one word 👇
#BTC #Fed #MarketUpdate
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. DYOR.
Trend: Bearish (4H)
🎯 Entry short: 68,200 – 68,800 (limit on a bounce; valid to Nov 16, 00:00 UTC)
✅ TP1: 66,500
✅ TP2: 65,300
✅ TP3: 62,500
🛑 SL: 70,600
📊 Logic:
• Nov 13's 4H closes: 68,314-69,318. Entry is the base of that shelf, above the 200W line. SL sits above the 70,214 PPI wick.
• Price is under all 4H EMAs. OI -7% in 24h, funding flat: longs were flushed, shorts aren't crowded yet.
• Macro: October PPI +6.5% y/y. Dec 9 hike odds near 90% (CME FedWatch). $1.3B+ liquidated as BTC broke 68K.
• Risk: at RSI 18, shorts can get squeezed. 65,250 (6 daily touches) may hold, so TP3 needs a break. Small size.
⚠️ Invalidation: a 4H close above 70,600. If 65,300 prints before a fill, skip.
$BTC back at 68,500: SELL or BUY? Drop one word 👇
#BTC #Fed #MarketUpdate
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. DYOR.
