Bitcoin starts Tuesday stuck under $75,000 with one of the busiest macro afternoons of the month ahead. October CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the market walks into it with weak ETF demand, miners unloading coins and a handful of whales quietly doing the opposite.
Here's how the board looks.
🌐 The macro setup
Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% on the month and core to rise 0.2%, a slowdown from September's 0.6% and 0.3%. There is no clean year-over-year figure this time, because last year's shutdown left October without a full index.
That number matters more than usual. CME FedWatch shows traders pricing in over an 80% chance of another Fed hike in December. A hot core print would lock that in. A soft one could give risk assets a breather.
Bitcoin needs real buying, not a lucky break. (BRN analysts)
⛏️ The sellers: miners
MARA's Q3 letter was the headline overnight:
Sold 13,597 BTC after September at about $81,039, roughly $1.1B
That's about 40% of the 34,012 BTC it held at quarter-end
$750M went to repaying bitcoin-backed loans
Plans to keep selling to fund AI infrastructure, convertible note puts and a buyback of up to $500M
Another 500 BTC left MARA wallets in the last few hours
Hut 8 also moved 1,617 BTC (~$121M) to a fresh address. It isn't a confirmed sale, but in October Hut 8 did sell 2,148 BTC at about $81,657 to fund buybacks.
Miners selling isn't new. Miners selling their treasury, not just fresh coins, is a different story.
🐋 The buyers: whales and Saylor
A newly created wallet pulled 1,489 BTC (~$111M) from BitGo (Lookonchain)
Three new wallets withdrew 1,002.86 BTC (~$75M) from Binance in 24 hours
Strategy added another 1,036 BTC
Spot ETFs, though, are still bleeding: $201M out on Monday after $1.28B last week, the biggest weekly outflow since early summer.
So the coins are moving from public miners and ETF holders into fresh wallets. That's distribution and accumulation happening at the same price.
📍 The levels that matter
Support: $73,000. A daily close below it could open $70,000, and Bitget Wallet analysts see $68,000 as the next floor
Resistance: ~$76,444, the 200-day EMA. Recent bounces keep stalling around $76,450
Trend change: reclaiming and holding $80,000
💬 My take
A soft CPI probably gets us a quick squeeze toward $76K, but I don't trust it while miners keep selling and ETFs keep redeeming. The whale withdrawals are the only real bid I see right now.
If $73K holds through CPI, PPI on Nov 13 and the Fed minutes on Nov 18, that's the first sign the bottom is in. If it doesn't, the market will go looking for $70K fast.
What's your call for today's CPI reaction: squeeze to $76K or flush to $73K? 👇
$BTC
