Cant believe Gold topped the very next day after I shared my analysis saying a top was near. 😬
Посты
CRYPTO MECHANIC
·
--
A Look at Gold’s Past Cycles — Is the Top Near?
Everyone’s talking gold right now… so I decided to check how it performed in past bull cycles and found something really interesting.
Gold has never moved in a straight line forever. It moves in big waves. A long time going up, then many years doing nothing or going down. When we look at history, gold follows the same behavior again and again a strong bull run, then a long cooling period.
1st Major Bull Cycle (1970 – 1980)
Duration: ~10 years
The first big modern gold bull run started around 1970. This was when the U.S. removed the gold standard and money printing increased. Inflation fears were high and people were scared about the economy. Gold slowly turned into the safe asset. Over the next 10 years, gold made an insane move from around $35 to nearly $850 in 1980. That was a huge run. Everyone believed gold could only go higher.
But after that peak, gold didn’t keep going up.
Gold Bear/sideways Market
It entered one of the longest painful periods in its history. From 1980 to 2001 almost 21 years gold either fell or moved sideways. People lost interest. Stocks became more attractive. Gold went from hero to forgotten.
2nd Bull Cycle (2001 – 2011)
Duration: ~10 years
Then another big cycle started around 2001. This bull run again lasted close to 10 years. It got stronger after the 2008 financial crisis when banks were collapsing and governments started printing money. Fear came back, and so did gold. Price went from around $250 to nearly $1900 by 2011. Just like before, people believed gold was the safest thing forever.
Gold Bear/sideways Market
History repeated. After 2011, gold entered another weak phase. From 2011 to around late 2015, price corrected hard and mostly moved sideways. It dropped near $1050 at the bottom. During this time gold became boring again and many investors shifted attention elsewhere.
The current cycle
This is where it gets interesting the current bullish cycle duration so far: 2026 − 2015 = about 10–11 years
Started around December 2015. That was the real bottom where gold stopped falling and slowly began trending up again. But the move was calm and steady in the early years. The big acceleration came after COVID in 2020, when money printing exploded, global uncertainty increased, wars started, currencies weakened, and central banks began buying gold aggressively. That’s when gold shifted from a slow uptrend into a powerful bull phase.
So now let’s talk about time because time matters a lot in cycles.
The first major bull cycle from 1970 to 1980 lasted around 10 years.
The second big bull cycle from 2001 to 2011 also lasted close to 10 years.
Now look at the current one. If we count from the real bottom in 2015, we are already about 10 years into this cycle.
That is very important.
Even though the explosive move started after COVID, the bull market itself began earlier. And historically, gold’s big bull cycles tend to mature around this time length.
This does not mean gold must crash tomorrow. The last phase of a bull market is usually the fastest and most emotional. In 1980 gold went almost vertical before topping. In 2011 the final move was also aggressive before the long correction started.
Cycles often end like this: first a slow healthy uptrend, then a strong trend with pullbacks, and finally a fast, almost straight-up move driven by fear and FOMO. Right now gold is in that strong acceleration stage. Media coverage is rising. Central banks are buying. Retail investors are entering. Uncertainty is high. These are conditions often seen in the late stage of a bull cycle.
So based on historical duration, this cycle is no longer young. In fact, time wise it is already near the length where previous gold bull markets matured. That means the window for a late stage run could be happening this year or maybe next year rather than many years ahead.
Now comes the big question, am I saying this is the last leg of gold?
Not with 100% certainty. But looking at the duration of the cycle and how behavior changes near the end, it is very possible we are closer to the final stage than the beginning. Gold has already been trending up for years. Price is moving faster. News channels talk about gold daily. And the biggest signal? Even “mango people” who never followed markets are rushing to buy gold because they think it is the safest place.
That is usually how the final stage looks. Price goes vertical. Fear in the world is high. Everyone believes gold can never fall. But history shows this is often when smart money becomes careful, not excited.
Gold can still go higher. The trend is still strong. But cycles matter. And gold bull markets don’t last forever.
After every big gold party, there has always been a long quiet or painful period.
Gold has never moved in a straight line forever. It moves in big waves. A long time going up, then many years doing nothing or going down. When we look at history, gold follows the same behavior again and again a strong bull run, then a long cooling period.
1st Major Bull Cycle (1970 – 1980)
Duration: ~10 years
The first big modern gold bull run started around 1970. This was when the U.S. removed the gold standard and money printing increased. Inflation fears were high and people were scared about the economy. Gold slowly turned into the safe asset. Over the next 10 years, gold made an insane move from around $35 to nearly $850 in 1980. That was a huge run. Everyone believed gold could only go higher.
But after that peak, gold didn’t keep going up.
Gold Bear/sideways Market
It entered one of the longest painful periods in its history. From 1980 to 2001 almost 21 years gold either fell or moved sideways. People lost interest. Stocks became more attractive. Gold went from hero to forgotten.
2nd Bull Cycle (2001 – 2011)
Duration: ~10 years
Then another big cycle started around 2001. This bull run again lasted close to 10 years. It got stronger after the 2008 financial crisis when banks were collapsing and governments started printing money. Fear came back, and so did gold. Price went from around $250 to nearly $1900 by 2011. Just like before, people believed gold was the safest thing forever.
Gold Bear/sideways Market
History repeated. After 2011, gold entered another weak phase. From 2011 to around late 2015, price corrected hard and mostly moved sideways. It dropped near $1050 at the bottom. During this time gold became boring again and many investors shifted attention elsewhere.
The current cycle
This is where it gets interesting the current bullish cycle duration so far: 2026 − 2015 = about 10–11 years
Started around December 2015. That was the real bottom where gold stopped falling and slowly began trending up again. But the move was calm and steady in the early years. The big acceleration came after COVID in 2020, when money printing exploded, global uncertainty increased, wars started, currencies weakened, and central banks began buying gold aggressively. That’s when gold shifted from a slow uptrend into a powerful bull phase.
So now let’s talk about time because time matters a lot in cycles.
The first major bull cycle from 1970 to 1980 lasted around 10 years.
The second big bull cycle from 2001 to 2011 also lasted close to 10 years.
Now look at the current one. If we count from the real bottom in 2015, we are already about 10 years into this cycle.
That is very important.
Even though the explosive move started after COVID, the bull market itself began earlier. And historically, gold’s big bull cycles tend to mature around this time length.
This does not mean gold must crash tomorrow. The last phase of a bull market is usually the fastest and most emotional. In 1980 gold went almost vertical before topping. In 2011 the final move was also aggressive before the long correction started.
Cycles often end like this: first a slow healthy uptrend, then a strong trend with pullbacks, and finally a fast, almost straight-up move driven by fear and FOMO. Right now gold is in that strong acceleration stage. Media coverage is rising. Central banks are buying. Retail investors are entering. Uncertainty is high. These are conditions often seen in the late stage of a bull cycle.
So based on historical duration, this cycle is no longer young. In fact, time wise it is already near the length where previous gold bull markets matured. That means the window for a late stage run could be happening this year or maybe next year rather than many years ahead.
Now comes the big question, am I saying this is the last leg of gold?
Not with 100% certainty. But looking at the duration of the cycle and how behavior changes near the end, it is very possible we are closer to the final stage than the beginning. Gold has already been trending up for years. Price is moving faster. News channels talk about gold daily. And the biggest signal? Even “mango people” who never followed markets are rushing to buy gold because they think it is the safest place.
That is usually how the final stage looks. Price goes vertical. Fear in the world is high. Everyone believes gold can never fall. But history shows this is often when smart money becomes careful, not excited.
Gold can still go higher. The trend is still strong. But cycles matter. And gold bull markets don’t last forever.
After every big gold party, there has always been a long quiet or painful period.