Here's a plausible sequence to watch — goes void if $BTC reclaims and holds above $83k.
The setup:
• Weekly close sub-$83k (again)
• October 25 fakeout confirmed
• Fed holds rates (Oct 28)
• PCE runs hot (Oct 29)
• Oil spikes to ~$120 on Iran escalation
• 10Y yield climbs back toward 5.3%
• Equities roll over
• $BTC follows the midterm Q4 playbook — down
• Long end yields drop before year-end
• Stocks and $BTC find a bottom
This is the bear case in motion. Watch $83k — if it holds as resistance, this path stays live. If we reclaim and stick above it, the script flips.
The setup:
• Weekly close sub-$83k (again)
• October 25 fakeout confirmed
• Fed holds rates (Oct 28)
• PCE runs hot (Oct 29)
• Oil spikes to ~$120 on Iran escalation
• 10Y yield climbs back toward 5.3%
• Equities roll over
• $BTC follows the midterm Q4 playbook — down
• Long end yields drop before year-end
• Stocks and $BTC find a bottom
This is the bear case in motion. Watch $83k — if it holds as resistance, this path stays live. If we reclaim and stick above it, the script flips.