Bitcoin's supply picture is improving, but stronger demand remains unconfirmed.

CryptoQuant's dashboard flags "Big Whale Orders" in spot trading, while futures order size is normal. Retail activity and volume signals are neutral in both markets, as is the 90-day taker CVD. Large orders indicate whale participation, not necessarily net buying.

IT Tech reports that 4.4% of BTC aged 6-12 months that moved in the latest 30-day window went to exchanges, versus 40.4% in June. Total movement reached 205,400 BTC: the destination changed rather than activity disappearing. However, the share edged up from September's 3.7%, and this cohort does not represent all holders.

Fresh liquidity remains limited. DeFiLlama shows stablecoin market capitalization down 0.11% over one day, with USDC down 0.14%. This is not direct evidence of BTC outflows, but it does not show expanding liquidity.

My view: reduced potential selling can support a base, yet a durable recovery needs directional spot buying and renewed capital inflows. I am watching exchange netflows and taker CVD for confirmation.

Written by XWIN Japan