September PPI just landed and it's hotter than expected — way hotter.
Headline PPI jumped 1.3% month-over-month. That's the highest monthly gain since March 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine and energy/food costs spiked. Annual PPI inflation is now running at 6.3%, versus the 5.4% consensus.
Core PPI (ex food/energy) rose 0.7% in September. Annual core is at 5.0%, well above the 4.4% forecast.
Yesterday's CPI was already hot. Today's PPI confirms it: inflation is not cooperating with the "mission accomplished" narrative.
Here's the twist: despite all this, the 10-year Treasury yield is down at 5.06% instead of spiking higher. That's unusual. Either the bond market thinks this is noise, or it's pricing in something else — recession risk, Fed pause, or just confusion.
Bottom line: inflation data is re-accelerating. The Fed's job isn't done. And the market's reaction suggests uncertainty, not confidence.
Watch what happens next.
Headline PPI jumped 1.3% month-over-month. That's the highest monthly gain since March 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine and energy/food costs spiked. Annual PPI inflation is now running at 6.3%, versus the 5.4% consensus.
Core PPI (ex food/energy) rose 0.7% in September. Annual core is at 5.0%, well above the 4.4% forecast.
Yesterday's CPI was already hot. Today's PPI confirms it: inflation is not cooperating with the "mission accomplished" narrative.
Here's the twist: despite all this, the 10-year Treasury yield is down at 5.06% instead of spiking higher. That's unusual. Either the bond market thinks this is noise, or it's pricing in something else — recession risk, Fed pause, or just confusion.
Bottom line: inflation data is re-accelerating. The Fed's job isn't done. And the market's reaction suggests uncertainty, not confidence.
Watch what happens next.