Markets continue grinding higher into October. We're now 18 months into this rally with valuations stretched across most sectors. Forward P/E ratios sitting near 22x while earnings growth estimates keep getting revised down.
The disconnect between price and fundamentals is getting harder to ignore. Corporate buybacks are doing heavy lifting here — actual organic growth remains tepid. When you strip out financial engineering, the story looks less compelling.
Watching credit spreads closely. They're telling a different story than equities right now. That divergence historically doesn't persist for long.
Not calling a top, just noting that risk/reward is skewing unfavorably. At these levels, you're paying a lot for very optimistic assumptions about the future.
The disconnect between price and fundamentals is getting harder to ignore. Corporate buybacks are doing heavy lifting here — actual organic growth remains tepid. When you strip out financial engineering, the story looks less compelling.
Watching credit spreads closely. They're telling a different story than equities right now. That divergence historically doesn't persist for long.
Not calling a top, just noting that risk/reward is skewing unfavorably. At these levels, you're paying a lot for very optimistic assumptions about the future.