$NBIS : Is Token Factory alone a $30B+ opportunity?
Axios reported that AI inference startup Baseten is in talks to raise at a $26B valuation. More recently, AFR suggested it could reach $37B. Even the lower figure would represent a double from the $13B valuation in June.
The incredible surge of open-source models has certainly accelerated their growth rates and ARR, but no official numbers are circulating. Estimates put it at $600M in July and closer to $1B–$1.5B right now.
Even if I think private markets are showing more stretched valuations and we should be cautious, it’s worth considering that Nebius’ market cap is close to $66B, with $4B of ARR (expected to double by year-end) and stakes in ClickHouse, Avride, Toloka, and TripleTen.
Moreover, unlike Baseten, Nebius has access to the underlying infrastructure. This is a huge factor when we consider margin pressure, flexibility in building the GPU fleet, software optimization, and even privileged access to resources.
Are private markets losing touch with fundamentals, or is Token Factory what could drive a rerate?
Sources: Axios, AFR
Axios reported that AI inference startup Baseten is in talks to raise at a $26B valuation. More recently, AFR suggested it could reach $37B. Even the lower figure would represent a double from the $13B valuation in June.
The incredible surge of open-source models has certainly accelerated their growth rates and ARR, but no official numbers are circulating. Estimates put it at $600M in July and closer to $1B–$1.5B right now.
Even if I think private markets are showing more stretched valuations and we should be cautious, it’s worth considering that Nebius’ market cap is close to $66B, with $4B of ARR (expected to double by year-end) and stakes in ClickHouse, Avride, Toloka, and TripleTen.
Moreover, unlike Baseten, Nebius has access to the underlying infrastructure. This is a huge factor when we consider margin pressure, flexibility in building the GPU fleet, software optimization, and even privileged access to resources.
Are private markets losing touch with fundamentals, or is Token Factory what could drive a rerate?
Sources: Axios, AFR
