Looking at $BTC long-term holder waves right now. These on-chain cohorts show who's been sitting through the chop and who's been rotating out. When you see long-term supply thinning while price consolidates, that's usually your late-cycle signal — the patient money starts taking profit into strength.
Right now the waves are telling a story about conviction vs. distribution. If we're still early in this macro leg up, you'd expect those bands to stay thick. If they're peeling off, we're closer to a local or intermediate top than most want to admit.
Chart structure matters more than the data point itself, but this is one of those confluences I watch when trying to time exits or re-entries. Long-term holders don't panic sell bottoms — they distribute into euphoria. Where we are in that cycle is the question.
Right now the waves are telling a story about conviction vs. distribution. If we're still early in this macro leg up, you'd expect those bands to stay thick. If they're peeling off, we're closer to a local or intermediate top than most want to admit.
Chart structure matters more than the data point itself, but this is one of those confluences I watch when trying to time exits or re-entries. Long-term holders don't panic sell bottoms — they distribute into euphoria. Where we are in that cycle is the question.
