$BTC closed above the May high — technically a bull point, and the bears still have to prove otherwise.
But here's the rub: we're still <1% from that May peak. Not exactly a decisive breakout. I thought by now we'd either have rejected back below or ripped much higher. Instead? We're just… hovering. Frustrating.
Usually after reclaiming the 50-week MA (like 2019, 2023), $BTC runs 20-30% within 1-2 weeks. This time? Muted. Probably because yields are climbing and Q4 seasonality fears are creeping in — both typically bearish for long-duration assets like crypto.
Honestly, it's a head-scratcher. My read said weakness into Q4, but $BTC keeps showing strength, which makes me question that view hard. And historically, if Q4 weakness is coming, it starts before Q4 even arrives — which hasn't happened yet.
Maybe I need to be less locked into one path. This whole move has been humbling as hell.
But here's the rub: we're still <1% from that May peak. Not exactly a decisive breakout. I thought by now we'd either have rejected back below or ripped much higher. Instead? We're just… hovering. Frustrating.
Usually after reclaiming the 50-week MA (like 2019, 2023), $BTC runs 20-30% within 1-2 weeks. This time? Muted. Probably because yields are climbing and Q4 seasonality fears are creeping in — both typically bearish for long-duration assets like crypto.
Honestly, it's a head-scratcher. My read said weakness into Q4, but $BTC keeps showing strength, which makes me question that view hard. And historically, if Q4 weakness is coming, it starts before Q4 even arrives — which hasn't happened yet.
Maybe I need to be less locked into one path. This whole move has been humbling as hell.
