$XRP sellers have cracked support—but shorting straight into the next demand is the trap.
The latest closed XRPUSDT H1 Futures candle finished at $1.5206 (26 Sep, 18:59 UTC). My primary bias is BEARISH, with no entry yet.
Three clues: lower highs formed at $1.6582, $1.6299 and $1.5804; the latest H1 close broke below the $1.5356 swing low; sell volume was 49.8M XRP, about 2.5× the prior 20-hour average.
Wyckoff: the $1.6299 peak could be a candidate buying climax, with a developing sign of weakness; a full distribution phase is not confirmed. SMC: the $1.5356 break is bearish, but the latest wick swept $1.5178 and closed back above it. That nearby demand makes a market short poor timing. Supply is around $1.5481–$1.5600; there is no fresh H1 imbalance confirmed yet.
🔴 CONDITIONAL SHORT
Trigger: confirmed H1 close below $1.5356.
Entry: $1.5330–$1.5390 only if a retest fails to reclaim that lost level.
SL: $1.5550, above the $1.5536 local swing high.
TP1: $1.5176 (1.0R).
TP2: $1.4806 (2.9R).
Thesis invalidation: H1 close above $1.5550.
STATUS: BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET. Price is at $1.5206, near demand and far below the proposed retest. Do not chase this red candle; if buyers reclaim the level, let the short go.
Will the next bounce reject $1.5356, or did the sweep at $1.5176 exhaust sellers?
#Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
The latest closed XRPUSDT H1 Futures candle finished at $1.5206 (26 Sep, 18:59 UTC). My primary bias is BEARISH, with no entry yet.
Three clues: lower highs formed at $1.6582, $1.6299 and $1.5804; the latest H1 close broke below the $1.5356 swing low; sell volume was 49.8M XRP, about 2.5× the prior 20-hour average.
Wyckoff: the $1.6299 peak could be a candidate buying climax, with a developing sign of weakness; a full distribution phase is not confirmed. SMC: the $1.5356 break is bearish, but the latest wick swept $1.5178 and closed back above it. That nearby demand makes a market short poor timing. Supply is around $1.5481–$1.5600; there is no fresh H1 imbalance confirmed yet.
🔴 CONDITIONAL SHORT
Trigger: confirmed H1 close below $1.5356.
Entry: $1.5330–$1.5390 only if a retest fails to reclaim that lost level.
SL: $1.5550, above the $1.5536 local swing high.
TP1: $1.5176 (1.0R).
TP2: $1.4806 (2.9R).
Thesis invalidation: H1 close above $1.5550.
STATUS: BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET. Price is at $1.5206, near demand and far below the proposed retest. Do not chase this red candle; if buyers reclaim the level, let the short go.
Will the next bounce reject $1.5356, or did the sweep at $1.5176 exhaust sellers?
#Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
