📊 BTC 50W MA — History vs My View
BTC has reclaimed the 50-week MA.
Historically, this happened 13 times during major bear-market periods:
🟢 11/13 → No new cycle low afterward
🔴 2/13 → Reclaim failed & BTC made a lower low
So historically, the signal has been strongly bullish.
But I’m still bearish on BTC here.
Why? The current macro + broader market conditions don't give me enough confidence that this reclaim will hold.
For me, $78–79K is the key test. Lose the 50W MA again → potential bull trap.
History says 11–2.
My current view says don't ignore the other 2. 👀
#BTC
BTC has reclaimed the 50-week MA.
Historically, this happened 13 times during major bear-market periods:
🟢 11/13 → No new cycle low afterward
🔴 2/13 → Reclaim failed & BTC made a lower low
So historically, the signal has been strongly bullish.
But I’m still bearish on BTC here.
Why? The current macro + broader market conditions don't give me enough confidence that this reclaim will hold.
For me, $78–79K is the key test. Lose the 50W MA again → potential bull trap.
History says 11–2.
My current view says don't ignore the other 2. 👀
#BTC
