📊 BTC 50W MA — History vs My View

BTC has reclaimed the 50-week MA.

Historically, this happened 13 times during major bear-market periods:

🟢 11/13 → No new cycle low afterward
🔴 2/13 → Reclaim failed & BTC made a lower low

So historically, the signal has been strongly bullish.

But I’m still bearish on BTC here.

Why? The current macro + broader market conditions don't give me enough confidence that this reclaim will hold.

For me, $78–79K is the key test. Lose the 50W MA again → potential bull trap.

History says 11–2.
My current view says don't ignore the other 2. 👀

#BTC