𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗛𝗶𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯. 𝗡𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗤𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁?
The Fed delivered the move markets were watching.
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps, taking the target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. It was the first hike since July 2023.
But the rate hike itself was not the biggest surprise. Markets had already largely priced it in, with roughly 92–94% odds before the decision.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗼𝘄?
1️⃣ The dot plot The Fed's projections point to one more 25 bps hike in 2026, while policymakers expect rates to remain elevated through 2027.
2️⃣ Inflation is still the problem The Fed raised its 2026 inflation projection to 3.7%, well above its 2% target.
3️⃣ BTC entered the decision under pressure Bitcoin was trading around $75.9K ahead of the decision after falling roughly 4% on Tuesday, following the failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.
So I would not look at the headline “Fed hikes” alone.
The bigger question for crypto is whether this becomes one isolated hike or the beginning of a renewed tightening cycle.
For $BTC and $ETH , liquidity expectations, Treasury yields, the dollar and Powell/Warsh's forward guidance can matter more than the 25 bps headline itself.
The rate decision was expected.
The path from here is what the market has to digest. #FedRateWatch
#LearnWithFatima
The Fed delivered the move markets were watching.
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps, taking the target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. It was the first hike since July 2023.
But the rate hike itself was not the biggest surprise. Markets had already largely priced it in, with roughly 92–94% odds before the decision.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗼𝘄?
1️⃣ The dot plot The Fed's projections point to one more 25 bps hike in 2026, while policymakers expect rates to remain elevated through 2027.
2️⃣ Inflation is still the problem The Fed raised its 2026 inflation projection to 3.7%, well above its 2% target.
3️⃣ BTC entered the decision under pressure Bitcoin was trading around $75.9K ahead of the decision after falling roughly 4% on Tuesday, following the failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.
So I would not look at the headline “Fed hikes” alone.
The bigger question for crypto is whether this becomes one isolated hike or the beginning of a renewed tightening cycle.
For $BTC and $ETH , liquidity expectations, Treasury yields, the dollar and Powell/Warsh's forward guidance can matter more than the 25 bps headline itself.
The rate decision was expected.
The path from here is what the market has to digest. #FedRateWatch
#LearnWithFatima
