Today is *decision day — FOMC announcement 2pm ET Sep 16, Warsh presser 2:30pm*. Market already decided the outcome:$SYN $BR $LSK
- *Consensus now: 25bp hike* to *3.75-4.00%* — first hike since July 2023. CME FedWatch *>92%*, Reuters poll *86 of 101 economists*, Morgan Stanley now 2 hikes (Sep + Dec), futures pricing 4 hikes to July 2027. Would be *Warsh's first move since taking chair in May*
- Reason flip: CPI *3.4% Aug* hot, 10Y briefly over *5%* Monday, oil >$100, plus ECB +25bp last week
Your sell-off scenarios match chatter but reversed from old playbook:
- *Hawkish hike (Warsh signals more):* CoinDesk/Brookings view — nightmare for Warsh because market already pricing multiple hikes. Hawkish = *stocks sell 2-5%, BTC down 5-7%* near term, but *dollar could still fall, long yields rise* on debt/inflation worry — actually bullish gold/BTC after washout. That's the frenzy you're seeing: BTC $75.8k down 3%, alt bleed JUP/XLM/ICP -10%
- *Dovish hike / "one and done" narrative:* relief — BTC/crypto squeeze, Nasdaq relief. Pause scenario you mentioned (3-5% rally) is *<8% prob* now — would be shocking per ex-NY Fed Dudley: "would damage his credibility"
So focus at 2:30pm: does Warsh validate the 3 more hikes priced, or push back? That's the volatility trigger, not the 25bp itself — it's fully priced.#FedRateWatch #ZcashRises6% #XRPSinks10% #CircleOpensArcMainnet
- *Consensus now: 25bp hike* to *3.75-4.00%* — first hike since July 2023. CME FedWatch *>92%*, Reuters poll *86 of 101 economists*, Morgan Stanley now 2 hikes (Sep + Dec), futures pricing 4 hikes to July 2027. Would be *Warsh's first move since taking chair in May*
- Reason flip: CPI *3.4% Aug* hot, 10Y briefly over *5%* Monday, oil >$100, plus ECB +25bp last week
Your sell-off scenarios match chatter but reversed from old playbook:
- *Hawkish hike (Warsh signals more):* CoinDesk/Brookings view — nightmare for Warsh because market already pricing multiple hikes. Hawkish = *stocks sell 2-5%, BTC down 5-7%* near term, but *dollar could still fall, long yields rise* on debt/inflation worry — actually bullish gold/BTC after washout. That's the frenzy you're seeing: BTC $75.8k down 3%, alt bleed JUP/XLM/ICP -10%
- *Dovish hike / "one and done" narrative:* relief — BTC/crypto squeeze, Nasdaq relief. Pause scenario you mentioned (3-5% rally) is *<8% prob* now — would be shocking per ex-NY Fed Dudley: "would damage his credibility"
So focus at 2:30pm: does Warsh validate the 3 more hikes priced, or push back? That's the volatility trigger, not the 25bp itself — it's fully priced.#FedRateWatch #ZcashRises6% #XRPSinks10% #CircleOpensArcMainnet
