Markets are pricing a ~25 bps Fed hike with roughly 87–93% probability. �
Coinbase +1
Inflation and oil prices remain elevated, supporting a hawkish Fed stance. �
CBS News +1
BTC is already under pressure ahead of the decision.
My FOMC scenario
🔴 Hawkish hike: $BTC /altcoins ↓
🟢 Dovish hike or no hike: BTC/altcoins could pump strongly
⚠️ Most likely: initial dump/volatility, followed by a possible reversal after the press conference.
So if you're asking me simply “Up or down?” → DOWN first is my higher-probability bias, but I would not short blindly because FOMC often creates a sharp fake move.
#FedRateWatch
Coinbase +1
Inflation and oil prices remain elevated, supporting a hawkish Fed stance. �
CBS News +1
BTC is already under pressure ahead of the decision.
My FOMC scenario
🔴 Hawkish hike: $BTC /altcoins ↓
🟢 Dovish hike or no hike: BTC/altcoins could pump strongly
⚠️ Most likely: initial dump/volatility, followed by a possible reversal after the press conference.
So if you're asking me simply “Up or down?” → DOWN first is my higher-probability bias, but I would not short blindly because FOMC often creates a sharp fake move.
#FedRateWatch