The Fed decision itself may not be the biggest risk this week.
Markets are already heavily pricing a 25bp move after August core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM.
That changes the question for me.
If the Fed hikes as expected, the initial BTC reaction could be noisy, but the bigger signal may come from the language around the next meeting.
A hike + hawkish guidance could keep pressure on BTC and tech stocks while supporting the dollar.
A hike + softer guidance could produce the opposite reaction as markets start pricing the end of the tightening cycle.
So I’m watching the statement and Powell’s tone more than the headline 25bp itself.
For BTC, I’d rather wait for the post-FOMC reaction than position purely on the announcement.
⚠️ Not financial advice. This is my market view, not a trade recommendation. DYOR.
#FedRateWatch
Markets are already heavily pricing a 25bp move after August core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM.
That changes the question for me.
If the Fed hikes as expected, the initial BTC reaction could be noisy, but the bigger signal may come from the language around the next meeting.
A hike + hawkish guidance could keep pressure on BTC and tech stocks while supporting the dollar.
A hike + softer guidance could produce the opposite reaction as markets start pricing the end of the tightening cycle.
So I’m watching the statement and Powell’s tone more than the headline 25bp itself.
For BTC, I’d rather wait for the post-FOMC reaction than position purely on the announcement.
⚠️ Not financial advice. This is my market view, not a trade recommendation. DYOR.
#FedRateWatch
