The Fed can move the market without moving the rate
The September FOMC feels different this time.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month, and the market quickly pushed the probability of a 25bp hike toward 90%.
So, will the Fed hike?
Honestly, I think the bigger question is what happens after the hike.
If the Fed delivers 25bp but makes it clear that this is mainly a response to stubborn inflation, I wouldn’t automatically assume BTC, tech stocks, and gold will all collapse. Markets are forward-looking, and a lot of the expectation may already be sitting in the price.
What would worry me more is a message like: “This is only the beginning.”
That would change the whole setup.
Higher rates for longer can keep pressure on risk assets like BTC and high-growth tech stocks because liquidity becomes more expensive. Gold could also face pressure from higher real yields, although its reaction isn't always straightforward—especially when inflation and geopolitical risk are both elevated.
That’s why I’m not trying to predict the exact candle.
My approach is simple: watch the reaction, not just the headline.
If BTC sells off after a hike but quickly recovers, that tells me something very different from BTC breaking support while yields and the dollar keep climbing.
For me, the FOMC isn't just about “25bp or no 25bp.”
It’s about whether September becomes a single adjustment—or the first chapter of a new tightening cycle.
I’d rather trade the confirmation than trade my own prediction.
#FedRateWatch $NVDAB $AAPLB
The September FOMC feels different this time.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month, and the market quickly pushed the probability of a 25bp hike toward 90%.
So, will the Fed hike?
Honestly, I think the bigger question is what happens after the hike.
If the Fed delivers 25bp but makes it clear that this is mainly a response to stubborn inflation, I wouldn’t automatically assume BTC, tech stocks, and gold will all collapse. Markets are forward-looking, and a lot of the expectation may already be sitting in the price.
What would worry me more is a message like: “This is only the beginning.”
That would change the whole setup.
Higher rates for longer can keep pressure on risk assets like BTC and high-growth tech stocks because liquidity becomes more expensive. Gold could also face pressure from higher real yields, although its reaction isn't always straightforward—especially when inflation and geopolitical risk are both elevated.
That’s why I’m not trying to predict the exact candle.
My approach is simple: watch the reaction, not just the headline.
If BTC sells off after a hike but quickly recovers, that tells me something very different from BTC breaking support while yields and the dollar keep climbing.
For me, the FOMC isn't just about “25bp or no 25bp.”
It’s about whether September becomes a single adjustment—or the first chapter of a new tightening cycle.
I’d rather trade the confirmation than trade my own prediction.
#FedRateWatch $NVDAB $AAPLB
