$BTC dumps on golden crosses are normal. What matters is the bounce after.
In 2019 and 2023, $BTC dumped into the golden cross then printed a higher high — confirming the bear market was over.
In 2014/2015, $BTC dumped into the golden cross then printed a lower high — and the bear market continued.
A higher high would likely mean a weekly close above the 50-week SMA, which is a reliable signal that the bear market is done.
A lower high rejected at the 50-week would signal the Q4 low is still on schedule.
The dump we're seeing now has happened before in both bear markets and early bull markets. The key question: does $BTC print a higher high above the 50-week, or get rejected again?
That data point will decide whether the low is in or not. Once we have it, it's the nail in the coffin for either the bull or the bear case.
In 2019 and 2023, $BTC dumped into the golden cross then printed a higher high — confirming the bear market was over.
In 2014/2015, $BTC dumped into the golden cross then printed a lower high — and the bear market continued.
A higher high would likely mean a weekly close above the 50-week SMA, which is a reliable signal that the bear market is done.
A lower high rejected at the 50-week would signal the Q4 low is still on schedule.
The dump we're seeing now has happened before in both bear markets and early bull markets. The key question: does $BTC print a higher high above the 50-week, or get rejected again?
That data point will decide whether the low is in or not. Once we have it, it's the nail in the coffin for either the bull or the bear case.
